Barclays slices up retail

巴克莱银行分拆零售业务

2019/11/14 00:21  Seeking Alpha

Barclays initiates coverage on U.S. specialty retail, apparel and e-commerce with an overall Neutral view, with a positive outlook on the off-price channel offsetting a negative stance on the mall sector.

Off-price retailers Burlington Stores (BURL -0.3%), Ross Stores (ROST +0.1%) and TJX Companies (TJX +0.1%) all earn Overweight rating. "As a group, the companies benefit from inventory dislocation and have relatively less risk of passing price through from tariffs. Of the three stocks, and despite having the highest valuation, we favor BURL given its unit growth potential and the recent appointment of Michael O’Sullivan as CEO (most recently COO of ROST), notes analyst Adrienne Yih.

Mall names Gap (GPS -2.4%) and L Brands (LB -1.5%) are started off with Underweight ratings. "We see comp and EPS risk in FY20 for both," warns Yih.

The firm's broad look at retail also yields VF Corp (VFC), National Vision (EYE -1.5%), Ralph Lauren (RL +0.2%) and Williams-Sonoma (WSM +1%) as interesting picks tagged with Overweight ratings. Meanwhile, Wayfair (W +0.9%) is initiated at Underweight. "We expect the mix of slowing top-line on a larger base of comp sales, combined with critical spending to fuel growth, to perpetuate losses," writes Yih.

Nike (NKE +1.1%) is Barclays' overall top pick in retail. Yih and team highlight the company's international growth, higher margin direct to consumer growth and apparel category growth as long-term drivers. Nike is seen maintaining its low 30s ROIC and improving the direct to consumer business.

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巴克莱银行以总体中立的观点开始对美国专业零售、服装和电子商务的报道,对折扣渠道的积极展望抵消了对购物中心行业的负面立场。

折扣零售商Burlington Stores(Burl-0.3%),Ross Stores(Rost+0.1%)和TJX公司(TJX+0.1%)都获得了超重评级。分析师Adrienne Yh指出:“作为一个集团,这些公司从库存错位中受益,并且通过关税传递价格的风险相对较低。在这三只股票中,尽管估值最高,但考虑到Burl的单位增长潜力,以及最近任命Michael O‘Sullivan担任首席执行官(最近是Rost的首席运营官),我们支持Burl。

商场名称Gap(GPS-2.4%)和L Brands(LB-1.5%)从减重评级开始。“我们看到这两个公司在20财年都有COMP和EPS风险,”伊警告说。

该公司在零售业的广泛视野还产生了VF Corp(VFC),National Vision(EAR-1.5%),Ralph Lauren(RL+0.2%)和Williams-Sonoma(WSM+1%),这些都是标有超重评级的有趣选择。同时,Wayfair(W+0.9%)在减持时启动。“我们预计,公司销售基数较大的营收放缓,加上推动增长的关键支出,将使亏损永久化,”易写道。

耐克(NKE+1.1%)是巴克莱在零售业的整体首选。YAH和他的团队强调了公司的国际增长,更高的利润率直接将消费增长和服装类别增长作为长期驱动因素。耐克被认为保持其低30%的ROIC,并改善直接面向消费者的业务。

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