49 S&P 500 Stocks 25% Off Their Highs

标准普尔500指数成份股49只,较高点下跌25%

2019/11/12 22:33  SeekingAlpha

Summary

With the S&P 500 making new highs, this article examines the companies trading at material discounts from their 52-week high.\n

Forty-nine companies are down more than 25% from their recent 1-year high.\n

This article also examines some trends within this laggard list to examine broader market implications.\n

With the S&P 500 (VOO) recently hitting new all-time highs, it is a prudent exercise for investors to look at what companies might be missing the broad market rally to screen for potential opportunities. Yesterday's article entitled, Value's Value Today, explored whether Value stocks might be poised for market-beating performance after lagging the market in recent years. In this article, I wanted to frame the companies still trading meaningfully below their 52-week highs as the broad market index sets new records.

The graph below shows the distribution of S&P 500 constituents relative to their 52 week highs. The companies at the left of the distribution are 30%, 40%, 50% from their 52-week high. The companies at the right of the distribution are approaching their trailing 1-year high.

S&P 500 constituents versus their 52 week highAfter a few minutes of drawing my finger across the distribution, I put the breakdown in a more consumable tabular form. To read the table below, there are 49 companies down at least 25% from their 52 week high. Similarly, there are 120 companies down at least 15% from their recent high.

Distance of S&P 500 constituents from 52-week highI do not have a historical data series that indicates whether 77 companies in "bear market territory" more than 20% from their recent highs is outsized when the market is at a new high. With the cap-weighted index outperforming the equal-weighted index on the year, it is not surprising that there is a meaningful tail of laggards.

Below I have tabled the 49 companies that have shed at least a quarter of their value from their recent highs.

49 companies down more than 25% from their 52-week highDrilling down into the 49 companies down at least 25% from their 52 week high, some themes emerge.

  • 15 of the 49 companies on the list were in the Energy sector, representing nearly one-third of the current market value of these laggards. Energy companies were more than 7x more represented on this list in capitalization terms than their 4.4% weight in the S&P 500. Remember that oil prices are up on the year, highlighting the secular pressures facing the industry and potentially the market disfavor of fossil fuel companies.
  • Brick-and-mortar retailers also featured prominently on the list with Macy's (M), L Brands (LB), Gap (GPS), Nordstom (JWN), Tapestry (TPR), Under Armour (UA), Ulta Beauty (ULTA), Kohl's (KSS), and PVH Corp (PVH) on this list. Macerich (MAC), the mall operator, was the lone company in the Real Estate sector on the list.
  • Altria (MO) is the largest company on the list by market cap. The potential regulatory clampdown on Juul, of which Altria owns 35%, has pressured the share price recently. The company offers the highest dividend yield on the list, excluding a pair of aforementioned retail-related stocks.
  • The second largest company on the list is Walgreen's (WBA), despite the stock's recent pop from takeover chatter. If this is the latter stages of the business cycle as some have surmised, leveraged buyouts have been notably absent. Expect a wave of LBO rumors to wash over markets if the Walgreen's takeover talk increases. At a $55B market capitalization with $16B of debt already on the balance sheet, we would be talking about a historically large leveraging transaction for a business model under some degree of flux. If a Walgreen's transaction can get done, there are other large deals out there. Expect some idiosyncratic pops of companies that screen well for a leveraging transaction.
  • At 13% of the index, Financials are the third largest sector in the S&P 500, but notably no Fins were on the laggards list. Financials are heavily represented in Value indices, but there are currently no constituents more than 25% from their 52-week high.
  • The same can be said for Utilities - no current constituents are on this laggards list - but only after Pacific Gas & Electric (PCG) was booted from the index in January.

I hope this article provides readers a unique look at the companies lagging the broad market as it hits new highs.

Disclaimer: My articles may contain statements and projections that are forward-looking in nature, and therefore inherently subject to numerous risks, uncertainties and assumptions. While my articles focus on generating long-term risk-adjusted returns, investment decisions necessarily involve the risk of loss of principal. Individual investor circumstances vary significantly, and information gleaned from my articles should be applied to your own unique investment situation, objectives, risk tolerance, and investment horizon.

Disclosure: I am/we are long SPY. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

发明内容

随着标准普尔500指数创出新高,本文研究了在52周高位的基础上进行实质性折扣交易的公司。\n

49家公司从最近一年的高点下跌了25%以上。\n

本文还检查了这个落后列表中的一些趋势,以检查更广泛的市场影响。\n

随着标准普尔500指数(S&P500)最近创下历史新高,投资者谨慎地考虑哪些公司可能错过了广泛的市场反弹,以筛选潜在的机会。昨天题为“今天价值的价值”的文章探讨了在近几年落后于市场之后,价值股是否可能有超越市场的表现。在这篇文章中,我想要框定那些仍在52周高点以下交易的公司,因为大盘指数创造了新的纪录。

下图显示了标准普尔500指数成分股相对于其52周高点的分布。分布左侧的公司距离52周高点分别为30%,40%,50%。分布右边的公司正在接近其一年来的最高点。

在我的手指在分布上划了几分钟之后,我将细分放在一个更易用的表格形式中。阅读下表,有49家公司从52周的高点至少下跌了25%。同样,有120家公司比最近的高点至少下跌了15%。

我没有一个历史数据系列来表明,当市场处于新高时,“熊市区域”中的77家公司是否比他们最近的高点高出20%是超额的。由于年内封顶加权指数的表现优于同等加权指数,因此出现有意义的落后者也就不足为奇了。

下面我列出了49家公司,它们的价值从最近的高点至少下降了四分之一。

深入研究49家公司,从52周高点下跌至少25%,出现了一些主题。

  • 在上榜的49家公司中,有15家位于能源行业,占这些落后者目前市值的近三分之一。能源公司在这份榜单上的市值是它们在标准普尔500指数中的4.4%权重的7倍多。请记住,石油价格逐年上涨,突显了该行业面临的长期压力,以及潜在的市场对化石燃料公司的不利影响。
  • 实体零售商也在榜单上占据重要位置,梅西百货(Macy‘s)、L Brands(LB)、Gap(GPS)、Nordstom(JWN)、Tapestry(TPR)、Under Armour(UA)、Ulta Beauty(ULTA)、Kohl’s(KSS)和PVH Corp(PVH)都在榜单上。商场运营商Macerich(MAC)是榜单上房地产行业的唯一一家公司。
  • 奥驰亚(MO)是榜单上市值最大的公司。奥驰亚持有JUUL 35%股份的潜在监管打击,最近对其股价构成了压力。除上述两只零售相关股票外,该公司提供了名单上最高的股息收益率。
  • 榜单上第二大公司是沃尔格林公司(Walgreen‘s),尽管该股最近因收购传言而大幅上涨。如果正如一些人猜测的那样,这是商业周期的后几个阶段,那么杠杆收购显然是没有出现的。如果沃尔格林的收购传言增加,预计一波杠杆收购传言将席卷市场。在550亿美元的市值下,资产负债表上已经有160亿美元的债务,我们将谈论在某种程度的变化下,商业模式的历史上巨大的杠杆交易。如果沃尔格林的交易能够完成,那么还有其他的大额交易。预计会出现一些特殊的公司,它们会很好地筛选杠杆交易。
  • 金融股占该指数的13%,是标准普尔500指数中的第三大板块,但值得注意的是,没有任何鳍出现在落后者的名单上。金融类股在价值指数中占很大比重,但目前还没有超过52周高点25%的成分。
  • 公用事业也可以这么说--目前没有任何公司在这份落后者的名单上--但只有在太平洋燃气电气(PCG)在1月份从指数中被启动之后。

我希望这篇文章能为读者提供一个独特的视角,了解那些在市场达到新高时落后于广大市场的公司。

免责声明:我的文章可能包含前瞻性的陈述和预测,因此固有地受到许多风险、不确定性和假设的影响。虽然我的文章关注的是产生长期风险调整后的回报,但投资决策必然涉及本金损失的风险。个人投资者的情况差别很大,从我的文章中收集的信息应该适用于你自己独特的投资情况、目标、风险容忍度和投资视野。

披露:我是/我们是长期间谍。 这篇文章是我自己写的,它表达了我自己的观点。我没有得到它的补偿(除了寻求阿尔法)。我与本文中提到股票的任何公司都没有业务关系。

免责声明:中文翻译由腾讯翻译君提供支持,富途对翻译信息的准确性或可靠性所造成的任何损失不承担任何责任。

风险提示:上文所示之作者或者嘉宾的观点,都有其特定立场,投资决策需建立在独立思考之上。富途将竭力但却不能保证以上内容之准确和可靠,亦不会承担因任何不准确或遗漏而引起的任何损失或损害。