Mall REITs: 'Do Or Die' Time

商场REITs:“做或死”时间

2019/11/12 21:00  SeekingAlpha

Summary

Another one bites the dust. Forever 21, seemingly one of the better-performing mall-based retailers, filed for bankruptcy last quarter in another dire sign for the struggling mall REIT sector.

The lone real estate sector in negative territory this year, Mall REITs haven’t participated in the ‘REIT Rejuvenation’ and are on pace to underperform for the fourth straight year.

It’s not me, it’s you. Mall REIT executives have long-blamed their mall-based tenant’s stale brands, over-leverage, and mismanagement for the wave of bankruptcies and weakening sales.

Despite an otherwise strong year for brick-and-mortar retail sales, the causality count has continued to mount, particularly in the enclosed mall format, setting a record for store closings.

This holiday season could be “make-or-break” time for low productivity malls in a fight for survival. The success of several high-productivity malls leaves a glimmer of hope for a turnaround.

REIT Rankings: Mall REITs

In our REIT Rankings series, we analyze REITs within each of the commercial and residential sectors, focusing on property-level fundamentals and the macroeconomic forces driving overall supply and demand conditions. We then analyze REITs based on both common and unique valuation metrics, presenting investors with numerous options that fit their own investing style and risk/return objectives.

mall REITs

(Co-Produced with Brad Thomas through iREIT on Alpha)

Mall REIT Sector Overview

Together with their retail REIT sector brethren, the open-air Shopping Center and Net Lease REITs, Mall REITs are one of the four “major’ real estate sectors along with residential, office, and industrial REITs. In the Hoya Capital Mall REIT Index, we track the seven mall REITs, which account for roughly $60 billion in market value, Simon Property (SPG), Macerich (MAC), Taubman (TCO), Tanger Factory Outlet (SKT), Washington Prime (WPG), Pennsylvania REIT (PEI), and CBL & Associates (CBL). We also track Brookfield Property (BPY), a non-REIT corporation that owns a diversified property portfolio including several billion dollars of mall properties across the world.

mall REITs

Having once represented as much as 15% of the REIT broad-based Real Estate ETF (VNQ), mall REITs now comprise just 5-7% of the major indexes and comprise roughly half of the Benchmark Retail Real Estate ETF (RTL). REITs own more than 50% of the roughly 1,000 regional malls in the US, an ownership concentration that is second only to the cell tower REIT sector. Notably, six of the seven mall REITs have leverage ratios above the REIT average with several REITs having debt ratios above 75%.

A more economically-sensitive sector than most REIT categories, mall REIT performance has historically correlated closely with retail sales growth and consumer confidence, though recent share price performance has been far weaker than retail sales trends would suggest. Trading at some of the lowest relative valuations across the real estate sector, mall REITs command some of the highest dividend yields in the sector but have seen anemic revenue and FFO growth over the last half-decade.

mall REITs 101

Mall properties are typically classified into several "quality" tiers based on location and tenant sales productivity. A theme that we’ve discussed for many years, there has been a significant and widening divergence in fundamentals and stock performance between higher-productivity mall REITs and lower-productivity mall REITs since the end of the recession. While several hundred of the roughly 1,000 malls in the US are fully-occupied and thriving, the middle and lower-tier segments have seen intense pressure in recent years from a seemingly endless wave of store closings and rent pressure.

Just as the "network effects" of having a thriving ecosystem of diverse retailers was a key selling point of the enclosed mall format for tenants and shoppers alike during the rapid rise of the mall format from 1970 through 2000, investors and analysts are increasingly worried about the "death spiral" effect in struggling mall properties whereby occupancy and foot traffic fall below a level to keep the property viable.

mall same-store NOI growth

While nearly 90% of total retail sales are still completed through the traditional brick-and-mortar channels, e-commerce sales account for roughly a fifth of “at-risk” retail categories, which exclude food, auto, and gasoline sales and brick-and-mortar retailers have been losing share at a rate of roughly 1% per year. The market share loss has been even more significant for the traditionally mall-based retail categories including department stores, clothing, sporting goods/books, and electronics retailers.

A theme that we’ll discuss throughout this report, store closings have unexpectedly surged in 2019 as the combination of higher minimum wages, tariff-related cost pressures, and heavy discounting have pressured margins at softline and specialty retailers. Coresight Research has tracked more than 7,500 closings so far this year, already outpacing the full-year count for 2018, and estimates that up to 12,000 could announce closings by year-end.

e-commerce mall REITs

A potential saving-grace for a retail sector, following a development boom during the 1990s and early 2000s, very little new retail space has been created since the recession. Despite that, the US still has more retail square footage than any other country in the world. Elevated levels of store closings in recent years, spurred by the rise of e-commerce, have created ample "shadow supply" of recently vacated space which has negatively impacted retail REIT fundamentals. This oversupply has forced mall owners to invest heavily in their properties to attract and retain tenants and remain relevant. The operating profile of mall REITs is characterized by relatively average-to-low NOI margins, high ongoing capital expenditure requirements, but a relatively average-to-low G&A overhead margin.

mall REIT operating profile

Forever 21, seemingly one of the better-performing mall-based retailers, filed for bankruptcy last quarter in another concerning sign for the struggling mall REIT sector. Investor materials and analyst reports about mall REITs had long-cited Forever 21 as a mall-based success story and while some analysts believe the company will continue to operate post-restructuring, the company will close at least 200 stores and is expected to have a measurable near-term negative impact on mall REIT occupancy and performance.

Mall REIT executives have long-blamed their mall-based tenant’s stale brands, over-leverage, and mismanagement for the wave of bankruptcies and weakening sales, but the relative success of dozens of other non-mall-based retailers over the past half-decade has called that claim into question. We outline the strategies that successful brick-and-mortar retailers have utilized to compete, which we call the "4 Critical C's of Brick & Mortar Competition" which we outline in the chart below.

retail competitive advantage

We believe that outside of the high-productivity malls and outlet centers that have the critical mass and "network effects" to offer a value-add retail experience that cannot be replicated online or otherwise, retailers in lower-productivity enclosed malls will find it difficult to compete on any of these four axes due to the inherent challenges of the format. As discussed in our Shopping Center REIT report, by embracing the "bricks and clicks" model including in-store pickup and honing the cost and convenience advantages of the strip center format, non-enclosed shopping centers have proven to be more adaptable to the rapidly changing retail distribution chain.

Mall REIT Stock Performance

The lone real estate sector in negative territory this year, mall REITs haven’t participated in the ‘REIT Rejuvenation’ and are on pace to underperform for the fourth straight year. Pressured by the unexpected surge in store closings, weakening department store performance, and lingering fears of a global economic slowdown, Mall REITs have declined more than 10% this year compared to the 22% gains on the broad-based US REIT Index and have lagged the top-performing REIT sector, manufactured housing, by a whopping 56%. By comparison, the SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT) has gained 8.6% YTD.mall REIT performance

Mall REIT investors, unfortunately, have become all-too-accustomed to underperformance. After having outperformed the REIT average in five of six years between 2009 and 2014, the mall sector is all-but-certain to stretch its streak of underperformance to four straight years. Notably, this year's underperformance hasn't been a "retail" story, but simply a "mall" story. Shopping center REITs, meanwhile, are on track to snap their stretch of three straight losing years, having gained more than 23% this year while the free-standing Net Lease retail sector is set for another year of strong gains after leading the sector in performance in 2018.

mall REITs

All seven mall REITs are in negative territory this year, but non-REIT Brookfield Properties has ridden the strength of its non-retail properties to produce a healthy 17% gain. Macerich, Taubman, and Tanger have been the biggest laggards this year, each dipping more than 20% while sector stalwart Simon Property has declined a more modest 8%. Interestingly, the sector has caught a bit of a bid over the last month as worries have waned about slowing global growth as investors have rotated into more economically-sensitive sectors both within the REIT sector and more generally across GICS sectors.

mall REITs 2019

Mall REIT Fundamental Performance

While an improving macroeconomic backdrop has certainly helped, signs of stabilization in earnings results have been the more significant factor in the recent stabilization in mall REIT performance over the past quarter. After a solid second quarter, third-quarter results were again generally pretty decent, highlighted again by strong leasing spreads in the high-productivity properties and improving tenant sales performance across all property tiers. Consistent with the theme discussed above, however, it continues to be a tale of two worlds within the mall REIT sector that isn't captured by the value-weighted averages, with lower-productivity mall REITs still seeing declining occupancy and significantly lower same-store NOI growth.

mall retailOn a weighted average basis, same-store NOI growth rose 1.2%, a deceleration from last quarter's 1.7% rise, but tenant sales per square foot rose 5.3%, up from 4.4% last quarter. While there is some obvious survivorship bias in the tenant sales data, along with the effects of Tesla (TSLA) and Apple (AAPL) stores on the data (as highlighted in a brilliant piece by Adam Levine-Weinberg yesterday), the otherwise solid growth figures combined with the relatively steady occupancy data does support the notion that pockets of strength still remain even in the average and lower-tier segments. Occupancy dipped roughly 80 basis points, on average, but remains near 95% on a weighted-average basis. Occupancy costs continued to trend in a positive direction as well with five of the six REITs that report the metric seeing improvement.mall REIT performance

Disappointingly, Taubman revised its same-store NOI data guidance from 2.0% to just 0.5%, citing continued tenant bankruptcy issues including from Forever 21. Despite that, the high-productivity mall REITs still saw a 0.1% growth in same-store NOI and forecast a 1.1% average growth rate for full-year 2019. Meanwhile, low-productivity mall REITs saw a 5.7% dip in same-store NOI growth and forecast a 4% decline for full-year 2019, revised lower due to PEI's downward revision this quarter. Leasing spreads don't give much reason for optimism either. While the high-productivity REITs, Simon, Macerich, and Taubman reported a 10% average leasing spread on renewals, the low-productivity REITs, Pennsylvania, Washington Prime, and CBL reported a 2% average decline in leasing spreads.

mall leasing spreads

While we’re still waiting on the final official tallies from NAREIT’s T-Tracker data on the third quarter, retail REITs were the lone major real estate sector to see negative occupancy in the first and second quarter, dipping 50 basis points on a year-over-year basis, and given the store closings outlook for the rest of 2019, there may be more pain ahead, particularly in the mall segment. The sector has seen generally declining same-store occupancy since peaking in 2015 at above 96.5%. The decline in occupancy is likely understated, however, as retail REITs have actively "recycled" underperforming properties and held low-occupancy properties for sale, outside of the same-store metrics.

mall occupancy 2019

External Growth & Capital Markets

External growth has been anemic for mall REITs, and we are struggling to see the potential catalyst to reignite growth on the near-term horizon given that these mall REITs already own the vast majority of investment-grade enclosed mall REIT properties in the US, which is the other side of the double-edged sword of the high concentration of REIT ownership. While analysts' consensus estimates imply that mall assets would fetch a 20-40% premium in the private markets, mall REITs haven't sold a single property in the last four quarters. So, while there are few sellers of mall assets, there are even fewer buyers. Outside of Brookfield's purchase of Rouse and GGP and Unibail's purchase of Westfield, few malls have changed hands over the past decade. Over the last twelve months through the first half of 2019, mall REITs sold a net $700 million in assets after having sold a combined net $300 million in full-year 2018.

mall REIT m&a As mentioned above, the saving grace of the mall REIT sector over the past half a decade has been record-low new development. Significant amounts of "shadow supply" from recent and future store closings persist across the sector, however. New supply growth has averaged less than 0.5% of existing stock per year since the recession, helping the industry absorb this ample "shadow supply" from vacated stores. For the high-productivity mall REITs, namely Simon, Macerich, and Taubman, redevelopment remains a substantial source of untapped long-term value. Top-tier retail assets are ideal for the “live-work-play” mixed-use residential expansion and there are a handful of highly successful redevelopments from these three higher-productivity REITs.

mall REIT development

Macro Retail Sales Trends & Outlook

As we discussed in our recent commentary, we've become quite a bit more bearish on the mall format over the last two years, given the disappointing fundamental performance and reacceleration in store closings amid an otherwise ideal macroeconomic backdrop of solid brick-and-mortar sales growth. 2018 saw the fastest rate of growth since 2012 for brick-and-mortar retail sales and solid gains have continued - albeit at a slower rate - in 2019. After slowing early this year, retail sales growth has been relatively strong since early summer despite the volatility seen in the financial markets. Recent strength, however, has been led primarily by a reacceleration in the nonstore (e-commerce) category.

mall REIT brick and mortar

As we’ve discussed in our weekly macroeconomic reports, for retailers, the more significant issue over the last two years has not been on the demand-side, but rather on the expense-side. Before even considering the margin hit from tariffs and excess inventory, labor costs have risen considerably over the last two years as eighteen states raised their minimum wage in 2018 and many cities (largely in already high-cost markets) have raised minimum wages over the last two years, oftentimes far above market rate, which has begun to result in retail job cuts and store closures. Hourly earnings surged to 5% in early 2019, outpacing the roughly 3% growth in retail sales, while retail job growth has been negative on a year-over-year basis for all of 2019.

mall REITs

While the majority of the store closings (on a square footage basis) over the last five years were concentrated in the anchor and big-box space, more than half of the store closings so far in 2019 have been in the specialty categories, suggesting that smaller businesses have been hit especially hard by minimum wage pressures. While hardline and food retailers tend to be somewhat immune from e-commerce related disruption, softline and specialty retail categories are generally more at risk. During the so-called "retail apocalypse" of 2016-2017, these categories were particularly weak. After recovering nicely throughout 2018, these softline and specialty retailers have again fallen on tough times this year.

softline retail category

Mall REIT investors, particularly in the average and lower-productivity mall REITs, hope that this holiday season could be a positive catalyst to stop the bleeding and will need strong results from the traditional mall-based retailers to bolster hopes of a turnaround. 2019 has been more of the same for most of these retailers and the next few weeks will be a critical period with Macy's (M), J. C. Penney (JCP), Dillard's (NYSE:DDS), L Brands (LB), and Nordstrom (JWN) all reporting results between November 15 and November 21.

retail sales 2019

With near-perfect macroeconomics conditions for retailer performance, and with very strong performance from strip-center based department store retailers like Walmart (WMT), Target (TGT), Costco (COST), TJX (TJX), we had expected the recently underperforming mall-based retailers to turn a corner last year. Given that the struggles persist with no clear upward catalyst in-sight, we are revising our view on the number of the 1,000 malls in the US with sustainable long-term outlooks from 800-900 individual properties to closer to 700-800, implying that 20-30% of the malls in the US are likely to close within the next decade.

Mall REIT Valuations

As they have for most of the past half a decade, retail REITs screen as fairly "cheap" across most traditional REIT metrics. The past half-decade has been particularly challenging for “value” investors in the REIT space as lower-yielding and higher-growing REITs have substantially outperformed since 2014. Powered by data from the iREIT Terminal, we illustrate that mall REITs are the second "cheapest" REIT sector based on Free Cash Flow (aka AFFO, FAD, CAD), but have also seen 0% average FFO growth over the past five years. Mall REITs continue to trade at a wide NAV discount, estimated at 20-30% based on consensus estimates.

mall REIT valuations

Mall REIT Dividend Yields

Mall REITs have quietly become the highest-yield REIT sector, but not necessarily for the right reasons. While dividend growth has been almost as anemic as FFO growth over the past half-decade, weak share price performance has boosted dividend yields well above the REIT average. Mall REITs pay an average dividend yield of 6.4%. Mall REITs have significantly scaled back the pace of dividend growth over the past half-decade, choosing to retain an average of 25% of their remaining free cash flow.

mall REIT dividends

Within the sector, more than other REIT sectors, investors need to be cautious not to fall into common "value traps" by assuming that high dividend yields can offset declining price returns. As we've pointed out for the past several years, despite paying double-digit dividend yields, REITs like CBL, PEI, and WPG have wiped out any yield premium many times over.

mall REITs yield

Bull and Bear Thesis for Mall REITs

While mall REITs get more than their fair share of negative headlines, there are a handful of reasons to be bullish on the long-term prospects for the mall REIT sector. Recognizing the challenges of the pure-play online retail strategy, more retailers have embraced the "brick and clicks" omnichannel retail strategy, including e-commerce giant Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) through their heavy investment into Whole Foods. There's been very limited new construction of retail real estate space over the last decade and high-productivity retail REITs continue to find accretive yields in redeveloping vacated store space into higher-value mixed uses, including multifamily and experience-based retailers. Below, we outline the five reasons that investors are bullish on mall REITs.

mall REIT bullish 2019

While the "retail apocalypse" may have been exaggerated, mall REITs continue to be challenged by broader secular headwinds, pressures that have intensified in 2019. Store closures have surged this year as retailers deal with a myriad of pressures including tariff concerns, rising minimum wages, and excess inventory. Downsizing retailers have focused their investment on higher-performing stores and have continued to close weaker-performing stores in lower-tier malls and retail centers. As we often discuss, valuations can be self-reinforcing in the REIT sector and cheap REITs tend to stay cheap as low equity valuations make it more challenging to raise the capital needed for redevelopment and external growth.

mall REITs bearish

Bottom Line: A Do or Die Holiday Season for Malls?

Another one bites the dust. Forever 21, seemingly one of the better-performing mall-based retailers, filed for bankruptcy last quarter in another dire sign for the struggling mall REIT sector. The lone real estate sector in negative territory this year, mall REITs haven’t participated in the ‘REIT Rejuvenation’ and are on pace to underperform for the fourth straight year.

It’s not me, it’s you. Mall REIT executives have long-blamed their mall-based tenant’s stale brands, over-leverage, and mismanagement for the wave of bankruptcies and weakening sales. Despite an otherwise strong year for brick-and-mortar retail sales, the causality count has continued to mount, particularly in the enclosed mall format, setting a record for store closings.

We outline the strategies that successful brick-and-mortar retailers have utilized to compete, which we call the "4 Critical C's." We believe that outside of the high-productivity malls and outlet centers that have the critical mass and "network effects" to offer a value-add retail experience that cannot be replicated online or otherwise, retailers in lower-productivity enclosed malls will find it difficult to compete on any of these four axes due to the inherent challenges of the format.

We revised our view on how many of the 1,000 malls in the US have a sustainable long-term outlook from 800-900 individual properties to closer to 700-800, implying that 20-30% of the malls in the US are likely to close within the next decade. While REIT ownership is skewed towards the upper-tier of the spectrum, we think that the three low-productivity mall REITs will continue to teeter on the edge of relevancy and believe that a sizable chunk of their malls is a recession away from extinction, highlighting the need for investors to be highly selective in their real estate allocation decisions.

malls(Source: AllThatsInteresting.Com)

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Disclosure: I am/we are long SPG, TCO, TGT, WMT, TJX, HD, COST. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Additional disclosure: It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Index performance cited in this commentary does not reflect the performance of any fund or other account managed or serviced by Hoya Capital Real Estate. All commentary published by Hoya Capital Real Estate is available free of charge and is for informational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Data quoted represents past performance, which is no guarantee of future results. Information presented is believed to be factual and up-to-date, but we do not guarantee its accuracy.

Hoya Capital Real Estate advises an ETF. In addition to the long positions listed above, Hoya Capital is long all components in the Hoya Capital Housing 100 Index. Real Estate and Housing Index definitions and holdings are available at HoyaCapital.com.

发明内容

另一只咬了灰尘。Forever 21,似乎是业绩较好的商场零售商之一,上个季度申请破产,这是苦苦挣扎的商场REIT行业的又一个可怕迹象。

作为今年唯一出现负值的房地产行业,Mall REITs没有参与“REIT复兴”,并有望连续第四年表现不佳。

不是我,是你。长期以来,商场REIT高管一直将破产和销售疲软的浪潮归咎于他们位于商场的租户的陈旧品牌、过度杠杆化和管理不善。

尽管今年实体零售业表现强劲,但因果关系计数仍在继续上升,特别是在封闭的购物中心形式,创下了门店关闭的纪录。

对于低生产率的商场来说,这个假日季节可能是一个“成败”的时刻,他们在为生存而战。几个高生产率购物中心的成功为扭转局面留下了一线希望。

REIT排名:商场REITs

在我们的REIT排名系列中,我们分析每个商业和住宅部门的REITs,重点关注房地产层面的基本面和驱动整体供求状况的宏观经济力量。然后,我们根据共同和独特的估值指标分析REITs,为投资者提供许多适合他们自己的投资风格和风险/回报目标的选择。

(通过iREIT on Alpha与Brad Thomas共同制作)

小型房地产投资信托基金行业概述

与零售REIT行业同行露天购物中心和净租赁REITs一起,Mall REITs与住宅、写字楼和工业REITs一起是四个“主要”房地产行业之一。在Hoya Capital Mall REIT指数中,我们跟踪了七个商场REIT,它们的市值约为600亿美元,它们是Simon Property(SPG)、Macerich(MAC)、Taubman(TCO)、Tanger Factory Outlet(SKT)、Washington Prime(WPG)、Pennsylvania REIT(PEI)和CBL&Associates(CBL)。我们还跟踪了Brookfield Property(BPY),这是一家非REIT公司,拥有多元化的房地产投资组合,包括世界各地价值数十亿美元的购物中心物业。

曾经占REIT广泛基础的房地产ETF(VNQ)的15%,现在商场REIT只占主要指数的5-7%,并且大约占基准零售房地产ETF(RTL)的一半。REITs拥有美国大约1000个地区性商场中的50%以上,所有权集中度仅次于手机塔REIT部门。值得注意的是,七家商场REITs中有六家的杠杆率高于REIT平均水平,其中几家REITs的负债率超过75%。

与大多数REIT类别相比,商场REIT是一个对经济更敏感的行业,它的表现历来与零售增长和消费者信心密切相关,尽管最近的股价表现远远低于零售趋势所显示的水平。商场REITs的相对估值是整个房地产行业中最低的,它的股息率在该行业中位居榜首,但在过去5年里,收入和FFO增长乏力。

商场物业通常根据位置和租户销售效率分为几个“质量”层。我们讨论了很多年的一个主题是,自经济衰退结束以来,高生产率的小型REITs和低生产率的小型REITs在基本面和股票表现方面存在着显著且日益扩大的差异。尽管美国约1000家购物中心中的数百家已满员并蒸蒸日上,但近些年来,来自似乎无休止的商店关闭浪潮和租金压力的中低端市场面临着巨大压力。

在1970年至2000年商场模式迅速崛起期间,拥有一个由多样化零售商组成的繁荣生态系统所产生的“网络效应”,是封闭式商场模式对租户和购物者的一个关键卖点,同样,投资者和分析师也越来越担心苦苦挣扎的商场物业的“死亡螺旋”效应,即入住率和人流量降至维持物业生存的水平以下。

虽然零售总额的近90%仍是通过传统的实体渠道完成的,但电子商务销售约占“风险”零售类别的五分之一,其中不包括食品、汽车和汽油销售,而实体零售商的份额一直在以每年约1%的速度下降。对于传统的以购物中心为基础的零售类别,包括百货公司、服装、体育用品/书籍和电子零售商,市场份额的损失更显着。

我们将在本报告中讨论的一个主题是,2019年门店关闭出人意料地激增,因为更高的最低工资,关税相关的成本压力,以及大幅折扣,都对softline和专业零售商的利润率造成了压力。CoreSight Research今年到目前为止已经跟踪了超过7500家公司的关闭,已经超过了2018年全年的统计数字,并估计到年底可能会有多达1.2万家公司宣布关闭。

对于零售业来说,在20世纪90年代和21世纪初的发展热潮之后,潜在的储蓄恩典,自经济衰退以来几乎没有创造出新的零售空间。尽管如此,美国仍比世界上任何其他国家拥有更多的零售面积。近年来,在电子商务兴起的推动下,门店关门率上升,为最近腾出的空间创造了充足的“影子供应”,这对零售REIT基本面产生了负面影响。这种供过于求的局面迫使商场业主大举投资于他们的物业,以吸引和留住租户,并保持相关性。小型REITs的经营状况的特点是相对平均至低的噪声利润率,较高的持续资本支出要求,但相对平均至较低的G&A间接利润率。

Forever 21,似乎是业绩较好的商场零售商之一,上个季度申请破产,这是陷入困境的商场REIT行业的又一个令人担忧的迹象。关于商场REITs的投资者材料和分析师报告长期以来一直将Forever 21作为一个基于商场的成功故事,虽然一些分析师认为该公司将在重组后继续运营,但该公司将关闭至少200家门店,预计将对商场REIT的占有率和业绩产生可衡量的短期负面影响。

长期以来,商场REIT高管一直将破产浪潮和销售疲软归咎于他们位于商场的租户的陈旧品牌、过度杠杆化和管理不善,但过去五年里其他数十家非商场零售商的相对成功,令这一说法受到质疑。我们概述了成功的实体零售商用于竞争的战略,我们称之为“砖混竞争的4个关键C”,我们在下面的图表中概述了这一点。

我们相信,除了具有临界质量和“网络效应”的高生产率商场和直销中心,以提供无法在网上或以其他方式复制的增值零售体验,低生产率封闭商场中的零售商将发现很难在这四个轴上进行竞争,这是由于格式的固有挑战所导致的。正如我们在购物中心REIT报告中所讨论的,通过拥抱“砖头和点击”模式,包括店内提货和磨练条形中心形式的成本和便利优势,非封闭式购物中心已被证明更适合快速变化的零售分销链。

小型房地产投资信托基金股票表现

作为今年唯一出现负值的房地产行业,商场REITs没有参与“REIT复兴”,并有望连续第四年表现不佳。在商店倒闭的意外激增、百货商店业绩疲软以及对全球经济放缓的挥之不去的担忧的压力下,Mall REITs今年已下跌逾10%,而基础广泛的美国REIT指数仅上涨22%,落后于表现最好的REIT行业--制成品住房--高达56%。相比之下,SPDR S&P零售ETF(XRT)的年内涨幅为8.6%。

不幸的是,商场REIT投资者已经变得太习惯于表现不佳。在2009年至2014年的六年中,有五年的表现超过了房地产投资信托基金(REIT)的平均水平,但几乎可以肯定的是,商场行业将连续四年表现不佳。值得注意的是,今年表现不佳并不是一个“零售”故事,而是一个简单的“购物中心”故事。与此同时,购物中心REITs有望打破三年连续亏损的局面,今年已经上涨逾23%,而独立的净租赁零售行业在2018年的表现领先于该行业后,将迎来又一个强劲增长的一年。

今年所有七家商场REITs均为负值,但非REIT Brookfield Properties凭借其非零售地产的强劲表现,实现了17%的健康增长。马塞里奇(Macerich)、陶布曼(Taubman)和唐格(Tanger)是今年最大的落后者,跌幅均超过20%,而行业巨头西蒙地产(Simon Property)的跌幅则较为温和,为8%。有趣的是,过去一个月,该行业遭遇了一点竞购,因为投资者对全球增长放缓的担忧已经消退,投资者已转向REIT行业内和更普遍的GICS行业中对经济更敏感的行业。

小型房地产投资信托基金基本业绩

虽然宏观经济背景的改善确实有所帮助,但盈利业绩企稳的迹象是上个季度小型房地产投资信托基金(REIT)业绩近期企稳的更重要因素。在稳健的第二季度之后,第三季度的业绩再次总体上相当不错,再次突出表现在高生产率物业的强劲租赁息差和所有物业层级租户销售业绩的改善。然而,与上面讨论的主题一致的是,这仍然是一个商场REIT行业中两个世界的故事,这两个世界没有被价值加权平均数捕获,生产率较低的商场REIT仍然出现入住率下降和同店噪音显著降低的增长。

在加权平均基础上,同店噪声增长1.2%,低于上季度1.7%的增长速度,但每平方英尺租户销售额增长5.3%,高于上一季度的4.4%。虽然租户销售数据中存在一些明显的生存偏见,以及特斯拉(Tesla)和苹果(Apple)门店对数据的影响(亚当·莱文-温伯格(Adam Levine-Weinberg)昨天在一篇精彩的文章中强调了这一点),但其他强劲的增长数据,再加上相对稳定的入住率数据,确实支持了这样一种观点,即即使是在平均和较低级别的细分市场,实力仍然很强。入住率平均下降了大约80个基点,但在加权平均基础上仍接近95%。占用成本继续朝着积极的方向发展,报告指标的六个REIT中有五个看到了改善。mall REIT performance

令人失望的是,Taubman将其同店噪音数据指导从2.0%修订为仅0.5%,指出租户破产问题持续存在,包括来自Forever 21的问题。尽管如此,高生产率的商场REITs在同店噪音方面仍有0.1%的增长,并预测2019年全年的平均增长率为1.1%。与此同时,低生产率的商场REITs看到同店噪音增长下降5.7%,并预测2019年全年将下降4%,由于PEI本季度向下修正,该数据被下调。租赁价差也没有给人太多乐观的理由。高生产率REITs、Simon、Macerich和Taubman报告续订时平均租赁利差为10%,低生产率REITs、宾夕法尼亚州、Washington Prime和CBL报告租赁息差平均下降2%。

虽然我们仍在等待NAREIT的T-Tracker第三季度数据的最终官方统计,但零售REITs是唯一一个第一和第二季度入住率出现负增长的主要房地产行业,同比下降50个基点,考虑到2019年剩余时间的门店关闭前景,未来可能会有更多痛苦,特别是在商场领域。自2015年达到96.5%以上的峰值以来,该行业的同店入住率普遍下降。然而,入住率的下降可能被低估了,因为零售REIT积极“回收”表现不佳的物业,并持有低入住率的物业出售,超出了同店指标。

外部增长与资本市场

商城REIT的外部增长一直乏力,我们难以在短期内看到重新点燃增长的潜在催化剂,因为这些商城REIT已经拥有美国绝大多数投资级封闭式商城REIT物业,这是REIT所有权高度集中的双刃剑的另一面。虽然分析师的共识估计表明,商场资产在私募市场将获得20%-40%的溢价,但商场房地产投资信托基金在过去四个季度中没有出售一处房产。因此,虽然商场资产的卖家很少,但买家更少。除了布鲁克菲尔德对Rouse和GGP的收购以及优尼贝尔对Westfield的收购外,在过去十年中几乎没有购物中心易手。在截至2019年上半年的过去12个月中,商场REITs在2018年全年总共出售了3亿美元的净资产后,净出售了7亿美元的资产。

如上所述,商场REIT部门在过去五年中的储蓄恩惠一直是创纪录的新发展。然而,最近和未来的商店关闭带来的大量“影子供应”仍然存在于整个行业。自经济衰退以来,新的供应增长平均每年不到现有库存的0.5%,这有助于行业从空出的商店中吸收充足的“影子供应”。对于高生产率的商场REITs,即Simon,Macerich和Taubman,再开发仍然是一个尚未开发的长期价值的重要来源。顶级零售资产是“生活-工作-娱乐”混合用途住宅扩建的理想选择,这三个生产率较高的REIT有几个非常成功的再开发项目。

宏观零售销售趋势与展望

正如我们在最近的评论中所讨论的那样,我们在过去两年中对购物中心的形式变得相当悲观,考虑到令人失望的基本面表现和商店关闭的再次加速,在实体销售强劲增长的理想宏观经济背景下,我们的表现令人失望。2018年实体零售额的增长速度是自2012年以来最快的,2019年的稳步增长仍在继续--尽管速度较慢。在今年年初放缓之后,尽管金融市场出现波动,但自夏初以来零售销售增长一直相对强劲。然而,最近的强势主要是由非商店(电子商务)类别的重新加速导致的。

正如我们在每周宏观经济报告中所讨论的那样,对于零售商来说,过去两年更重要的问题不是需求方面,而是费用方面。甚至在考虑关税和过剩库存对利润率的影响之前,劳动力成本在过去两年里已经大幅上升,因为有18个州在2018年提高了最低工资,许多城市(主要是在已经高成本的市场)在过去两年提高了最低工资,经常远远高于市场利率,这已经开始导致零售业裁员和商店关闭。2019年初,时薪飙升至5%,超过了零售业约3%的增长,而2019年全年零售业就业增长均为负。

虽然过去五年中大部分店铺关闭(按平方英尺计算)都集中在锚和大卖场,但2019年迄今为止,超过一半的店铺关门都属于专业类别,这表明小企业受到最低工资压力的打击尤其严重。虽然强硬派和食品零售商倾向于在一定程度上不受电子商务相关干扰的影响,但软线和专业零售类别通常面临更大的风险。在2016-2017年所谓的“零售末日”期间,这些类别特别薄弱。在2018年全年恢复良好后,这些软线和专业零售商今年再次陷入困境。

商场REIT投资者,特别是平均水平和生产率较低的商场REIT投资者,希望这个假日季节能够成为止血的积极催化剂,并需要传统商场零售商的强劲业绩,以提振好转的希望。对于大多数零售商来说,2019年的情况大致相同,未来几周将是关键时期,梅西百货(Macy‘s)、J.C.Penney(JCP)、Dillard’s(NYSE:DDS)、L Brands(LB)和Nordstrom(JWN)都将在11月15日至11月21日期间公布业绩。

鉴于零售商业绩近乎完美的宏观经济条件,以及沃尔玛(Walmart)、塔吉特(Target)、好市多(Costco)、TJX(TJX)等条形中心百货商店零售商的强劲业绩,我们曾预计最近表现不佳的商场零售商去年会出现转机。鉴于斗争持续存在,眼前没有明显的向上催化剂,我们正在修正我们对美国1,000个具有可持续长期前景的购物中心数量的看法,从800-900个独立物业调整为接近700-800个,这意味着美国有20-30%的购物中心可能在未来十年内关闭。

小型REIT估值

就像过去五年的大部分时间一样,零售REITs在大多数传统REIT指标中都相当“便宜”。过去五年对REIT领域的“价值”投资者来说尤其具有挑战性,因为自2014年以来,收益率较低、成长性较高的REITs的表现明显优于后者。由来自I的数据提供支持REIT码头,我们说明了商场REITs是基于自由现金流(又名AFFO,FAD,CAD)的第二“最便宜”REIT部门,但在过去五年中FFO的平均增长率也为0%。商场REITs继续以较大的NAV折价交易,根据共识估计,估计为20-30%。

小型REIT股息收益率

商城REITs已悄然成为收益率最高的REIT行业,但不一定是出于正确的原因。尽管过去五年股息增长几乎与FFO增长一样乏力,但疲弱的股价表现已将股息收益率推升至远高于REIT平均水平的水平。小型房地产投资信托基金支付的平均股息率为6.4%。在过去的五年里,商场REITs大幅降低了股息增长的速度,选择平均保留其剩余自由现金流的25%。

在该行业内,与其他REIT行业相比,投资者需要谨慎行事,不要落入常见的“价值陷阱”,假设高股息收益率可以抵消价格回报的下降。正如我们在过去几年中指出的那样,尽管支付了两位数的股息收益率,但CBL、PEI和WPG等REITs已经多次抹去了收益率溢价。

购物中心REITs的牛市和熊市论文

虽然商场REITs获得的负面新闻超过了它们应有的份额,但有几个理由对商场REIT行业的长期前景持乐观态度。认识到纯在线零售战略的挑战,更多的零售商已经接受了“砖头和点击”全渠道零售战略,包括电商巨头亚马逊(NASDAQ:AMZN)通过对Whole Foods的大量投资。在过去十年中,零售房地产空间的新建设非常有限,高生产率的零售REIT继续在将空出的商店空间重新开发为更高价值的混合用途(包括多家庭和体验型零售商)中找到增值收益。下面,我们概述了投资者看好商场REITs的五个原因。

尽管“零售末日”可能被夸大了,但商场REITs继续受到更广泛的世俗逆风的挑战,这种压力在2019年已经加剧。由于零售商应对各种压力,包括关税担忧、最低工资上涨和库存过剩,今年商店关闭数量激增。缩小规模的零售商将投资集中在表现较好的商店上,并继续关闭低级商场和零售中心中表现较差的商店。正如我们经常讨论的那样,在REIT部门,估值可以自我加强,廉价的REIT往往会保持廉价,因为较低的股票估值使筹集再开发和外部增长所需的资本变得更具挑战性。

底线:商场的Do or Die假日季节?

另一只咬了灰尘。Forever 21,似乎是业绩较好的商场零售商之一,上个季度申请破产,这是苦苦挣扎的商场REIT行业的又一个可怕迹象。作为今年唯一出现负值的房地产行业,商场REITs没有参与“REIT复兴”,并有望连续第四年表现不佳。

不是我,是你。长期以来,商场REIT高管一直将破产和销售疲软的浪潮归咎于他们位于商场的租户的陈旧品牌、过度杠杆化和管理不善。尽管今年实体零售业表现强劲,但因果关系计数仍在继续上升,特别是在封闭的购物中心形式,创下了门店关闭的纪录。

我们概述了成功的实体零售商用于竞争的策略,我们称之为“4个关键C”。我们相信,除了具有临界质量和“网络效应”的高生产率商场和直销中心,以提供无法在网上或以其他方式复制的增值零售体验,低生产率封闭商场中的零售商将发现很难在这四个轴上进行竞争,这是由于格式的固有挑战所导致的。

我们修正了我们对美国1000家商场中有多少家具有可持续长期前景的看法,从800-900个独立物业调整为接近700-800个,这意味着美国20-30%的商场可能在未来十年内关闭。虽然REIT的所有权倾向于上层,但我们认为,三家生产率较低的商场REIT将继续徘徊在相关性的边缘,并认为它们的商场中有相当大一部分是远离灭绝的衰退,突显出投资者在房地产分配决策中需要高度选择性。

(来源:AllThatsInteresting.Com)

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Hoya Capital Real Estate为ETF提供建议。除了上面列出的多头头寸,Hoya Capital是多头头寸,是Hoya Capital Housing 100指数的所有组成部分。房地产和住房指数定义和持有量可在HoyaCapital.com上获得。

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