When does a 'wall of worry' become a 'wall of fear' for stock-market investors?

“担忧之墙”何时会成为股市投资者的“恐惧之墙”?

2019/09/28 05:08  道琼斯

MW When does a 'wall of worry' become a 'wall of fear' for stock-market investors?

By Mark DeCambre, MarketWatch

Stock-market investors have managed to scale 'walls of worry' in years past but for how much longer ?

The pathway forward for Wall Street and the value of risky assets is becoming more perilous.

What began arguably with a momentary pivot in investor appetite from "growth" stocks -- those stocks with a propensity to rise steadily based on growing sales and profitability - toward those viewed as undervalued by some metric, has morphed into something seemingly more lasting and more reflective of a market that is struggling to scale its latest wall of worry.

It is a market that is increasingly sensitive to geopolitical developments, for example the Trump impeachment enquiry begun this week, as well as a litany of other technological and sectoral risks that could prove too much for a sluggish economy and a listless stock market.

Take Netflix Inc. (NFLX), the video-streaming service that has been a darling among investors, but lately has seen its shares lose more than 10% in September and turn negative for 2019 as competition in the sector has increased. That marks the worst performance by a wide margin this month and year among the so-called FAANG stocks, which also include Facebook Inc. (FB), Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN) Apple Inc. (AAPL), and Google-parent Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL)(GOOGL).

Growth stocks like Netflix, and the wider FAANG complex, have been in a nearly uninterrupted bullish trend for the past decade. A rotation, however, appears to be at hand, with measures of growth stock performance this month trailing value strategies handily. The Russell 1000 Growth is down 0.9% so far in September, compared with a Russell 1000 Value Index that has climbed almost 3%, marking the first time value has outperformed growth for the month since June, according to FactSet data.

Read:Value rotation signals a rebound in global economic growth, not a recession, analysts say (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/value-rotation-signals-a-rebound-in-global-economic-growth-not-a-recession-analysts-say-2019-09-18)

The shift toward value stocks, however fleeting it may be, has come as bond yields have been worryingly low for a stock market that isn't far from all-time highs. The 10-year Treasury yields 1.678% late Friday in New York, while the 2-year Treasury note was at 1.626%, marking the second straight weekly slide for U.S. Treasury yields and the sharpest two-week skid since the period ended Aug. 16, according to Dow Jones Market Data. Pundits have suggested that investors are turning to assets that offer safer returns during times of economic stress.

Beyond tectonic moves in the value-growth narrative, the once-highflying market for initial public offerings has appeared to come off the rails, with Peloton Interactive Inc. on Thursday putting in the second-worst initial decline of any IPO that has raised at least $500 million this year, according to Dealogic data. Poor debuts for IPOs have often presaged, or been indicative of, more worrisome developments in the market.

Peloton's woeful debut came as work-space sharing company We Co. pulled its plans to list its stock on a public exchange and Endeavor Group Holdings Inc. postponed its planned offering (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/endeavor-reportedly-pulling-its-ipo-after-peloton-struggles-2019-09-26) also after Peloton's woes.

A popular way to measure IPO performance, the Renaissance IPO ETF (IPO) is down 6.9% this week, marking its worst weekly decline since the week ended Dec. 21, 2018. It's also the worst monthly decline, down 8.7%, for the exchange-traded product since December, according to FactSet data.

However, it's worth noting that the Renaissance ETF is still up nearly 20.2% so far this year, outstripping the year-to-date gains for the Nasdaq Composite Index , the S&P 500 index and the Dow Jones Industrial Average

WeWork-parent We Co.'s IPO postponement has been driven by investors pushing back against companies with high valuations in the private markets despite heavy losses or meager profits.

Read: IPO market has begun pushing back on growth-at-all-costs private companies (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/ipo-investors-are-pushing-back-on-growth-at-all-costs-private-companies-2019-09-26)

Valuations may also come into focus when investors consider third quarter earnings from American corporations in October which may underscore the issue of an earnings recession (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-sp-500-is-in-its-first-earnings-recession-in-three-years-2019-09-18).

The market overall has been stuttering for the past year, with the Dow gaining a meager 1.4% over the 12 months, the S&P 500 up 1.6% and the Nasdaq, weighed down by many of those growth names, down 1.3% over the same period.

It isn't clear that the market has any real impetus to cruise much higher in the next three months.

The U.S - China trade dispute and the wider geopolitical challenge posed by China's growing economic, technological and military power may present the biggest hurdle for the market's ascent.

For example, for the second week in a row, a trade war related headline capsized a Friday climb for the main U.S. equity benchmarks. This week, it was reports that the White House is weighing limiting investment in China (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/stock-market-hits-session-low-amid-report-that-white-house-weighing-limit-on-us-investments-in-china-2019-09-27). Last Friday, markets headed down hill on reports that a China delegation canceled a trip to Montana farms (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/dow-skids-to-friday-lows-amid-reports-that-chinas-delegation-has-canceled-a-tariff-related-visit-2019-09-20).

On top of all that, a raging impeachment inquiry against President Trump, centered on allegations that the 45th U.S. president pressed the leader of a foreign country, Ukraine, to help him undermine a domestic political competitor, has drawn outsize attention.

The Trump impeachment inquiry is, perhaps, the most significant for markets in some ways, because of how it may influence the political will for a Sino-American trade dispute resolution and how it could influence the likely outcome of next year's U.S. presidential election.

It all seems like a giant wall of worry that the market has climbed before. However, there is a point at which a wall of worry becomes a wall of fear. On Wall Street, fear may be the only thing that trumps greed.

See: How the Fed's funding struggles highlight the fragility of Wall Street confidence (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-fragility-of-wall-street-confidence-highlighted-by-feds-struggles-with-banking-system-funding-2019-09-21)

-Mark DeCambre; 415-439-6400; AskNewswires@dowjones.com



(END) Dow Jones Newswires

September 27, 2019 17:08 ET (21:08 GMT)

Copyright (c) 2019 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

对于股市投资者来说,一堵“担忧之墙”何时会变成一堵“恐惧之墙”?

马克·德坎布雷(Mark DeCambre),MarketWatch

股市投资者过去几年一直设法攀登“担忧之墙”,但还能持续多久呢?

华尔街前进的道路和风险资产的价值正变得越来越危险。

可以说,投资者兴趣的短暂转向始于“成长型”股票-那些倾向于根据不断增长的销售额和盈利能力稳步上涨的股票-转向被某些指标视为低估的股票,现在已经演变成一种似乎更持久、更能反映市场正在努力攀登其最新担忧墙的股票。

这是一个对地缘政治发展越来越敏感的市场,例如本周开始的特朗普弹劾调查,以及一系列其他技术和部门风险,这些风险可能对疲软的经济和疲软的股市来说太大了。

以Netflix Inc.为例。视频流媒体服务NFLX一直是投资者的宠儿,但最近其股价在9月份下跌逾10%,随着该行业竞争的加剧,2019年的股价将转为负值。这标志着本月和今年的最差表现,在所谓的FAANG股票中,也包括Facebook Inc.。(FB),Amazon.com Inc.(AMZN)苹果公司(Apple Inc.)和谷歌的母公司Alphabet Inc.(GOOGL)(GOOGL)。

过去10年,Netflix等成长型股票以及更广泛的FAANG综合指数一直处于几乎不间断的看涨趋势中。然而,一轮换似乎即将到来,本月成长股表现的指标轻松跟踪了价值策略。根据FactSet的数据,9月份到目前为止,罗素1000指数的增长下降了0.9%,而罗素1000价值指数上涨了近3%,这是自6月份以来价值首次超过增长。

阅读:分析师表示,价值轮换标志着全球经济增长的反弹,而不是衰退(http:/www.market watch.com/story/value-rotation-signals-a-rebound-in-global-economic-growth-not-a-recession-Analysts-say-2019-09-18)

向价值股的转变,无论多么短暂,都是因为债券收益率一直处于令人担忧的低水平,而股市离历史高点不远。道琼斯市场数据显示,上周五纽约市场尾盘,10年期美国国债收益率为1.678%,而2年期美国国债收益率为1.626%,这是美国国债收益率连续第二周下滑,也是自截至8月16日的这段时间以来最剧烈的两周下滑。专家们表示,投资者正转向在经济压力下提供更安全回报的资产。

除了价值增长叙事中的结构性举措,一度高涨的首次公开发行(IPO)市场似乎脱离了轨道,佩洛顿互动公司(Peloton Interactive Inc)。周四,Dealogic的数据显示,在今年筹资至少5亿美元的IPO中,首日跌幅位居第二。IPO首日表现不佳往往预示着,或预示着市场中更令人担忧的事态发展。

peloton的悲惨首秀是因为工作空间共享公司We Co.取消了在公开交易所上市的计划,同时奋进集团控股公司(Endeavor Group Holdings Inc.)也取消了上市计划。推迟了原计划的上市(http:/www.market watch.com/STORWORE/REPOING-PULL-ITS-IPO-after-peloton-Struggles-2019-09-26),也是在peloton陷入困境之后。

作为衡量IPO表现的一种流行方式,Renaissance IPO ETF(IPO)本周下跌6.9%,是自2018年12月21日结束的一周以来最大的周跌幅。根据FactSet的数据,这也是该交易所交易产品自去年12月以来最大的月度跌幅,下跌8.7%。

然而,值得注意的是,Renaissance ETF今年迄今仍上涨了近20.2%,超过了纳斯达克综合指数(Nasdaq Composite Index)、标准普尔500指数(S&P500 index)和道琼斯工业平均指数(Dow Jones Industrial Average)的今年迄今涨幅

WeWork-母公司We Co.推迟IPO的原因是投资者对私募市场上估值较高的公司进行了反击,尽管公司亏损严重或利润微薄。

阅读:IPO市场已经开始推动不惜一切代价增长的私营公司(http:/www.market watch.com/STORY/IPO-Investors-are-push-back-on-growth-by-all-cost-private-company-2019-09-26)

当投资者考虑10月份美国公司的第三季度收益时,估值也可能成为关注的焦点,这可能会突显收益衰退的问题(http:/www.market watch.com/Story/the-sp-500-is-in-its-first-earns-recession-in-Three-Years-2019-09-18)。

过去一年,整个市场一直步履蹒跚,道琼斯指数在过去12个月中仅上涨了1.4%,标准普尔500指数上涨了1.6%,而纳斯达克指数则受到许多增长品牌的拖累,同期下跌了1.3%。

目前还不清楚市场是否有任何真正的动力来推动未来三个月更高的巡航。

美中贸易争端以及中国日益增长的经济、技术和军事实力所带来的更广泛的地缘政治挑战可能是市场崛起的最大障碍。

例如,连续第二周,一个与贸易战相关的标题推翻了周五美国主要股指的攀升。本周,有报道称白宫正在考虑限制对华投资(http:/www.market watch.com/story/stock-market-hits-session-low-deviding-report-that-White-house-weight-limit-on-us-investment-in-China-2019-09-27)。上周五,市场走低,因为有报道称,一个中国代表团取消了前往蒙大拿州农场的访问(http:/www.market watch.com/STORE/Dow-skids-to-day-lowes),其中有报道称,中国代表团已经取消了与关税相关的访问-2019-09-20)。

最重要的是,针对特朗普总统的激烈弹劾调查引起了极大的关注。调查的核心是美国第45任总统向外国领导人施压,要求其帮助其削弱国内政治竞争对手。

在某些方面,特朗普弹劾调查对市场来说可能是最重要的,因为它可能会影响中美贸易争端解决的政治意愿,以及它可能会影响明年美国总统选举的可能结果。

这一切似乎都像是一堵巨大的担忧墙,市场以前已经攀升过。然而,在某一点上,一堵担心的墙变成了一堵恐惧的墙。在华尔街,恐惧可能是战胜贪婪的唯一因素。

参见:美联储的融资困境如何突显华尔街信心的脆弱性(http:/www.market watch.com/Story/the-Frameability-of-Wall-Street-Confidence-by-Fed-Struges-with-Banking-System-Funding-2019-09-21)

-马克·德坎布尔(Mark DeCambre);电话:415-439-6400;电子邮件:askNewswires@dowjones.com



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September 27, 2019 17:08 ET (21:08 GMT)

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