(Bloomberg) -- Retail sales in the U.S. jumped by the most since September 2017 and first-time filings for unemployment benefits dropped to a fresh 49-year low, as a strong labor market gives American consumers the wherewithal to keep the economy chugging along.
The value of overall sales in March rose 1.6 percent, boosted by gains in motor vehicles and gasoline stations, after an unrevised 0.2 percent decrease the prior month, according to Commerce Department figures released Thursday. That exceeded all forecasts in Bloomberg’s survey calling for a 1 percent gain.
A Labor Department report released at the same time showed initial jobless claims fell last week to 192,000, the lowest since September 1969. Economists had projected an increase.
“The labor market is alive and well,” said Stephen Stanley, chief economist at Amherst Pierpont Securities LLC. Income gains support consumer spending and “as long as the labor market is doing well there is good reason to expect consumer spending should do fine.”
With first-quarter gross domestic product figures due April 26, the surprisingly strong retail report spurred economists to further increase projections. Analysts raised economic growth forecasts for the period Wednesday after a report showing the trade deficit unexpectedly narrowed in February. The economy had showed signs of slowing heading into 2019, before the U.S. central bank put rate hikes on indefinite hold and a government shutdown clouded the outlook.
A Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta estimate of first-quarter gross domestic product was revised up Thursday to 2.8 percent from 2.4 percent Wednesday.
Bolstered Case
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. economists said any slowdown may be confined to the first three months of the year. “A dovish Fed pivot, the reopening of the government, and a tentative rebound in global growth have bolstered the case for reacceleration,” according to a note co-written by Goldman Sachs economist Spencer Hill.
The stronger data signal consumers may continue to drive the expansion amid solid wage gains, low unemployment, and policy makers indicating interest rates will remain on hold this year. The rebound, after a December plunge, may counter an inventory overhang that’s poised to weigh on growth later this year.
“Retail sales ended 2018 abysmally and began 2019 extraordinarily,” Jefferies LLC economists Ward McCarthy and Thomas Simons wrote in a note. “With a boost from January and March, the consumer sector will be a source of growth again in the first quarter.”
Automobile dealer sales rose 3.1 percent, the most in 18 months, after a drop the prior month. Industry data from Ward’s Automotive Group previously showed unit sales rebounded in March.
Twelve of 13 major retail categories increased. Sales at clothing stores increased 2 percent, the most since May, while food services posted a 0.8 percent gain, the best since July. Nonstore retailers held up with a second-straight 1.2 percent rise, as sporting goods and hobby stores saw the lone decline.
What Bloomberg’s Economists Say
“Stronger-than-expected retail sales in March that spanned multiple discretionary spending categories confirm that the slowdown at the start of the year was temporary... As transitory factors abated -- including a lengthy government shutdown and a shock to household confidence in response to the fourth-quarter market rout -- consumer spending recovered in full force.”-Yelena Shulyatyeva and Carl Riccadonna, economistsClick here for the full note.
Fed officials, who have signaled they will remain patient on any policy rate changes amid low inflation and gathering uncertainty, will be watching for indications whether consumer spending gains are likely to be sustained over time.
Sales in the “control group” subset, which some analysts view as a cleaner gauge of underlying consumer demand, climbed 1 percent and topped projections. The measure excludes food services, car dealers, building-materials stores and gasoline stations.
A separate report Thursday showed the Bloomberg Consumer Comfort’s monthly gauge of economic expectations climbed to 50 from 47.5, the second increase in the last six months, as more respondents said the economy is getting better. The weekly comfort measure also rose as measures of personal finances and buying climate increased.
Sales at filling-stations increased 3.5 percent, in line with the prior month, the report showed, as oil prices rallied. Another Labor Department report this month showed gas prices rose 6.5 percent in March, the most since September 2017.
(Updates to add Atlanta Fed tracker in sixth paragraph.)
--With assistance from Jordan Yadoo and Sophie Caronello.
To contact the reporter on this story: Reade Pickert in Washington at epickert@bloomberg.net
To contact the editors responsible for this story: Scott Lanman at slanman@bloomberg.net, Brendan Murray, Jeff Kearns
For more articles like this, please visit us atbloomberg.com
©2019 Bloomberg L.P.
彭博社(Bloomberg)-美國零售額跳升至2017年9月以來的最高水平，首次申請失業救濟金的人數降至49年來的新低，強勁的勞動力市場為美國消費者提供了保持經濟增長所需的資金。
美國商務部週四公佈的數據顯示，在機動車和加油站的增長推動下，3月份總銷售額上升了1.6%，此前一個月未經修正的下降了0.2%。這超過了彭博社調查中的所有預測，要求增長1%。
美國勞工部同時發佈的一份報告顯示，上週首次申領失業救濟人數下降至19.2萬人，為1969年9月以來的最低水平。經濟學家曾預測增長。
“勞動力市場充滿活力，”Amherst Pierpont Securities LLC首席經濟學家斯蒂芬·斯坦利(Stephen Stanley)表示。收入增長支持消費者支出，“只要勞動力市場表現良好，就有充分的理由預期消費者支出應該表現良好。”
隨着第一季度國內生產總值(GDP)數據將於4月26日公佈，這份出人意料的強勁零售報告促使經濟學家進一步上調預測。分析師週三上調了這一時期的經濟增長預期，此前一份報告顯示，2月份貿易逆差意外收窄。在美國央行將加息無限期擱置和政府關門給前景蒙上陰影之前，經濟已經顯示出進入2019年的放緩跡象。
亞特蘭大聯邦儲備銀行(Federal Reserve Bank Of Atlanta)週四上調了對第一季度國內生產總值(GDP)的估計，從週三的2.4%上調至2.8%。
支撐箱
高盛集團(Goldman Sachs Group Inc.)經濟學家表示，任何放緩可能僅限於今年前三個月。高盛(Goldman Sachs)經濟學家斯賓塞·希爾(Spencer Hill)參與撰寫的一份報告稱：“美聯儲温和的轉向，政府的重新開放，以及全球經濟增長的試探性反彈，都支持了重新加速的理由。”
更強勁的數據表明，消費者可能會繼續推動經濟擴張，原因是工資上漲強勁，失業率較低，政策制定者表示，今年利率將保持不變。在12月份暴跌之後的反彈，可能會抵消庫存過剩的影響，而庫存過剩可能會在今年晚些時候拖累經濟增長。
傑富瑞有限責任公司(Jefferies LLC)經濟學家沃德·麥卡錫(Ward McCarthy)和托馬斯·西蒙斯(Thomas Simons)在一份報告中寫道：“零售銷售在2018年糟糕地結束，2019年異常開始。”“在1月和3月的提振下，消費部門將在第一季度再次成為增長來源。”
汽車經銷商銷售額增長3.1%，為18個月來最大增幅，此前一個月曾有所下降。沃德汽車集團(Ward‘s Automotive Group)此前公佈的行業數據顯示，3月份單位銷量出現反彈。
13個主要零售類別中有12個增加了。服裝店銷售額增長2%，為5月份以來最大增幅，而食品服務銷售增長0.8%，為7月份以來最大增幅。非門店零售商保持了連續第二個季度上漲1.2%的勢頭，體育用品和業餘愛好商店的銷量出現了單獨的下降。
彭博經濟學家説
“3月份超過預期的零售銷售跨越了多個可自由支配的支出類別，這證實了年初的放緩是暫時的…隨着暫時性因素的減弱-包括政府長時間停擺，以及第四季度市場暴跌對家庭信心的衝擊-消費者支出全面復甦。“-經濟學家Yelena Shulyatyeva和Carl Riccadonna點擊此處查看全文。”-Yelena Shulyatyeva和Carl Riccadonna，經濟學家，點擊這裏查看全文。“-Yelena Shulyatyeva和Carl Riccadonna，經濟學家。
美聯儲官員曾表示，在低通脹和日益加劇的不確定性背景下，他們將對任何政策利率變化保持耐心，他們將密切關注消費者支出增長是否可能持續一段時間的跡象。
一些分析師認為，“控制組”中的銷售額上升了1%，超過了預期。一些分析師認為，“控制組”是衡量潛在消費者需求的一個更乾淨的指標。這項措施不包括食品服務，汽車經銷商，建材商店和加油站。
週四發佈的另一份報告顯示，隨着越來越多的受訪者表示經濟正在好轉，彭博消費者舒適指數(Bloomberg Consumer Comfort)的月度經濟預期指數從47.5攀升至50，這是過去六個月來的第二次增長。隨着個人財務和購買環境指標的增加，每週的舒適度指標也有所上升。
報告顯示，隨着油價回升，加油站的銷售額同比增長3.5%。勞工部本月的另一份報告顯示，3月份汽油價格上漲6.5%，為2017年9月以來的最大漲幅。
(在第六段中添加了亞特蘭大聯邦儲備銀行跟蹤器的更新。)
-在喬丹·亞杜和索菲·卡洛內洛的幫助下。
聯繫這篇報道的記者：Reade Pickert在華盛頓，電子郵件：epickert@bloomberg.net
聯繫負責本文的編輯：Scott Lanman，slanman@bloomberg.net，Brendan Murray，Jeff Kearns
如需更多類似文章，請訪問我們atbloomberg.com
彭博社(Bloomberg L.P.)
