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MW Be cautious about the market now -- and buy these 3 stocks on weakness

MW Be cautious about the market now -- and buy these 3 stocks on weakness

MW 現在對市場要謹慎--在疲軟的情況下買入這 3 隻股票
道琼斯 ·  2019/03/08 06:59

MW Be cautious about the market now -- and buy these 3 stocks on weakness

MW現在對市場持謹慎態度--在疲軟時買入這3只股票

By Michael Brush, MarketWatch

作者:Michael Brush,MarketWatch

Investor sentiment has ramped up and the markets are overbought

投資者情緒高漲,市場處於超買狀態

It's time to get a bit more cautious about stocks now for two reasons: Investor sentiment has ramped up and the markets are overbought. Consider:

現在是時候對股市變得更加謹慎了,原因有兩個:投資者情緒高漲,市場超買。請考慮:

-- Sentiment: U.S. markets finished the first two months of 2019 with their best gains in over a decade. So investors were giddy again (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-why-recent-stock-gains-could-be-just-a-bear-market-rally-2019-03-05). That's the bad news, in a contrarian sense. When the crowd forms a strong point of view, contrarians like to tilt the other way. Virtually all of the dozen or so sentiment indicators I track were recently either neutral or bearish. That's bearish -- meaning these indicators show too much bullishness. (http://www.marketwatch.com/articles/dow-drops-200-points-ecb-weak-forecast-spook-market-slowdown-51551997293)

-情緒:2019年前兩個月,美國股市創下十多年來最大漲幅。因此,投資者再次感到頭暈目眩,(http://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-why-recent-stock-gains-could-be-just-a-bear-market-rally-2019-03-05).從相反的角度來看,這是個壞消息。當人羣形成強烈的觀點時,反向投資者喜歡向另一種方向傾斜。我追蹤的12個左右的情緒指標最近幾乎都是中性或悲觀的。這是悲觀的--這意味着這些指標顯示了太多的看漲。(http://www.marketwatch.com/articles/dow-drops-200-points-ecb-weak-forecast-spook-market-slowdown-51551997293)

For example, a reading below 16 for the CBOE Volatility Index is bearish, since this signals investor complacency. The VIX was just flirting with these levels. Various Ned Davis sentiment polls recently showed excessive optimism, also bearish. Put buying, a bearish bet, has dried up relative to call-buying, which is a bullish bet. So put/call ratios are now in neutral territory.

例如,芝加哥期權交易所波動率指數低於16就是看跌,因為這表明投資者自滿。波動率指數只是在這些水平之間徘徊。內德·戴維斯最近進行的各種情緒調查顯示,人們過度樂觀,也持悲觀態度。看跌的看跌押注相對於看漲的看漲買入已經枯竭。因此,看跌/贖回比率目前處於中性區間。

One saving grace for the bulls is that the Investors Intelligence Bull/Bear ratio, a key indicator I track, has recently hovered around 2.57. For me the warning path sell signal is when this measure is at 4.0 or higher. Currently it is firmly in the neutral zone.

看漲人士的一個可取之處是,我追蹤的一個關鍵指標--投資者情報牛熊比率最近一直徘徊在2.57左右。對我來説,警告路徑賣出信號是當這一指標達到4.0或更高時。目前,它堅定地處於中立區域。

-- Technical: More than 90% of S&P 500 stocks were recently trading above their 50-day moving averages, points out Bruce Bittles, the chief investment strategist at Baird. This is not a good sign (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/boeing-could-bring-the-dow-to-a-hard-landing-2019-03-04). It's important to see broad participation in a trend (broad breadth) to confirm that the trend is real. But too much participation signals over-exuberance for a trend (either up or down), which can foreshadow its demise. (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-evidence-is-in-stocks-are-in-a-bull-trap-2019-02-02)

--技術:Baird首席投資策略師布魯斯·比特爾斯指出,超過90%的標準普爾500指數成份股最近的交易價格高於50日移動均線。這不是一個好兆頭,(http://www.marketwatch.com/story/boeing-could-bring-the-dow-to-a-hard-landing-2019-03-04).重要的是要看到廣泛參與一種趨勢(廣泛的廣度),以確認這一趨勢是真實的。但過多的參與表明,對於一種趨勢(無論是上漲還是下跌)來説,它過於活躍,這可能預示着它的消亡。(http://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-evidence-is-in-stocks-are-in-a-bull-trap-2019-02-02)

-- The 'special friend' indicator: This one's totally anecdotal. But it works. If you're lucky, you have a special market friend who's a great contrarian indicator. I have one who invariably beats his chest about gains and how smart he is right around market tops. At bottoms he sends dire emails proclaiming that world is coming to an end, or worse, and knocking me for every stock I suggested that is down. The boasting typically marks near-term market peaks and vice versa. Last weekend he was in full boast mode about his year-to-date gains.

--“特殊朋友”指示器:這個完全是軼事。但它確實奏效了。如果你幸運的話,你有一個特殊的市場朋友,他是一個很好的反向指標。我有一個人總是為了收益而拼命工作,他在市場頂端表現得多麼聰明。在谷底,他發出可怕的電子郵件,宣佈世界末日即將到來,甚至更糟,併為我建議的每一隻下跌的股票而抨擊我。這種吹噓通常標誌着近期市場見頂,反之亦然。上週末,他對自己今年迄今的收益大肆吹噓。

This is not scientific, but it's a useful sentiment read. If you don't have such a friend, try to cultivate one. Just don't tell them. This will spoil it.

這並不科學,但它是一本有用的情感讀物。如果你沒有這樣的朋友,試着培養一個。別告訴他們就好。這會毀了它的。

Otherwise, consider tracking your own emotions. Many of us get distraught by portfolio losses, and giddy from the gains. So you, yourself, may be a good contrarian indicator. The best buys are the hardest to make. The best traders feel no emotion at all when moving in and out of the market. This helps them take money from people who are overly emotional and therefore prone to do the wrong thing.

否則,可以考慮追蹤你自己的情緒。我們中的許多人為投資組合的損失而心煩意亂,為收益而頭暈目眩。因此,你自己可能是一個很好的反向投資者指標。買到最好的東西是最難的。最好的交易員在進進出出市場時完全沒有情緒。這有助於他們從過度情緒化、因此容易做錯事的人那裏拿到錢。

What might cause more stock-market weakness? That's always tough to predict. But here is a top candidate: A lot of bulls are pinning their hopes on a China trade deal to push stocks higher. They will be disappointed. True, there will be a deal, but there is no way it will be comprehensive enough (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/trump-today-president-says-trade-talks-going-well-as-china-reported-to-be-wary-of-quick-deal-2019-03-07).

什麼可能會導致股市更疲軟?這總是很難預測的。但這裏有一個熱門候選人:許多看漲人士將希望寄託在中國達成貿易協議以推動股市走高上。他們會失望的。誠然,將會達成一項協議,但它不可能足夠全面。(http://www.marketwatch.com/story/trump-today-president-says-trade-talks-going-well-as-china-reported-to-be-wary-of-quick-deal-2019-03-07).

President Donald Trump and his team are pushing for too many structural changes in China on how the government manages the economy. Their wish list includes things like a rollback in Chinese subsidies for domestic companies and government favoritism towards Chinese suppliers. Trump also wants an end to restrictions on foreign investments -- like the requirement that foreign companies have a Chinese partner -- and an end to forced technology transfers.

總裁唐納德·特朗普和他的團隊正在推動中國在政府管理經濟的方式上進行太多的結構性改革。他們的願望清單包括取消中國對國內企業的補貼,以及政府對中國供應商的偏袒。特朗普還希望結束對外國投資的限制--比如要求外國公司必須有中國合作伙伴--以及停止強制技術轉讓。

This may be all well and good, but it will be tough for Chinese leaders to swallow. When investors see that Trump only got a half a deal (mostly tariff concessions) they'll realize trade battles probably are not over -- and sell. (http://www.marketwatch.com/articles/managing-risk-and-opportunity-ahead-of-a-china-trade-deal-51551956401)

這可能是好事,但中國領導人很難接受。當投資者看到特朗普只達成了一半的協議(主要是關税讓步)時,他們會意識到貿易戰可能還沒有結束--然後拋售。(http://www.marketwatch.com/articles/managing-risk-and-opportunity-ahead-of-a-china-trade-deal-51551956401)

If the U.S. market's current weakness leads to continued consolidation, here's what to do:

如果美國市場目前的疲軟導致持續的盤整,以下是我們應該做的:

-- Hold cash: This is a good time to trim positions, get completely off margin, and raise some buying power.

--持有現金:這是削減頭寸、完全降低保證金、提高購買力的好時機。

Cyclical areas including industrials and housing-related stocks were favored in my stock newsletter Brush Up on Stocks (http://www.uponstocks.com) in December because company insiders liked them so much and sentiment was so bad. These might be places to trim because cyclical names like these can do the worst in any sell off. The bottom-line here is that if the pullback continues you don't want to be extended on margin, to avoid margin calls. And you'll want to have some buying power to pick up quality names.

在我去年12月的股票通訊Brush Up on Stock(http://www.uponstocks.com))中,包括工業和住房相關股票在內的週期性領域受到青睞,因為公司內部人士非常喜歡它們,而市場情緒又如此糟糕。這些可能是需要調整的地方,因為在任何拋售中,像這樣的週期性名稱可能會造成最糟糕的結果。這裏的底線是,如果回調持續,你不想延長保證金,以避免追加保證金。你會想要有一定的購買力來挑選優質的名字。

A few companies I've recently suggested in my stock letter are Continental Resources (CLR) , where founder and energy expert Harold Hamm has been a big buyer; Kinder Morgan (KMI) , where chairman Rich Kinder has been a big buyer; and BeiGene (BGNE) , a quality Chinese biotech company developing cancer therapies, which has a partnership with Celgene (CELG) . BeiGene is well above the buy limits I've set in my stock letter ($25 when introduced, then $101). But it is still a buy on weakness, and it may rally on China trade-deal news.

我最近在信中提到的幾家公司包括:大陸資源公司(Continental Resources),其創始人兼能源專家哈羅德·哈姆一直是該公司的大買家;金德摩根公司(Kinder Morgan),其董事長裏奇·金德一直是該公司的大買家;以及百濟神州,這是一家開發癌症療法的優質中國生物技術公司,它與Celgene有合作關係。百濟神州遠高於我在股票信中設定的買入上限(介紹時為25美元,然後是101美元)。但這仍然是逢低買入,可能會在中國貿易協議的消息傳出後反彈。

-- Get defensive: If you want to actively trade into any further weakness, tilt towards defensive areas like utilities and real estate investment trusts (REITs). You can do this with exchange-traded funds (ETFs) such as Utilities Select Sector SPDR (XLU) , Fidelity MSCI Utilities (FUTY) , Vanguard Utilities ETF (VPU) , iShares US Utilities (IDU) , iShares Residential Real Estate (REZ) , Vanguard Real Estate (VNQ) , Fidelity MSCI Real Estate Index (FREL) , and Schwab U.S. REIT (SCHH) .

--防禦性:如果你想積極利用任何進一步的疲軟,就傾向於防禦性領域,如公用事業和房地產投資信託基金(REITs)。您可以使用交易所交易基金(ETF),如Utilities Select Sector SPDR(XLU)、富達MSCI公用事業(FUTY)、先鋒公用事業ETF(VPU)、iShares美國公用事業(IDU)、iShares Residential Real Estate(REZ)、Vanguard Real Estate(VNQ)、Fidelity MSCI Real Estate Index(FREL)和嘉信理財(SCHH)。

-- Short-beta trades: Beta refers to how much more a stock moves compared to the market (in the same direction). In a downturn high-beta stocks will decline more. Technology is a typical high-beta sector. So consider owning Direxion Daily Technology Bear 3X Shares (TECS) or Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bear 3X Shares x(SOXS) .

-空頭貝塔交易:貝塔是指一隻股票的波動幅度比市場高出多少(方向相同)。在經濟低迷時期,高貝塔係數的股票跌幅會更大。科技是一個典型的高貝塔行業。因此,可以考慮持有Direxion Daily Technology Bear 3X股票(TECS)或Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bear 3X股票x(SOXS)。

For broader market exposure consider ProShares UltraShort S&P500 (SDS) which goes up when the S&P 500 falls.

對於更廣泛的市場敞口,可以考慮ProShares UltraShort S&P500指數,當標準普爾500指數下跌時,該指數會上漲。

Remember these are trades, and not buy and holds. That's because they are so volatile. You'll want to take profits or cut losses fast. And these types of ETFs are typically constructed via positions in futures contracts. They must be continually rolled over, which erodes value over the long term.

記住,這些是交易,而不是買入並持有。這是因為它們的波動性很大。你會想要快速獲利或止損。這些類型的ETF通常是通過期貨合約的頭寸構建的。它們必須不斷展期,從長遠來看,這會侵蝕價值。

-- Do nothing: If you are truly a long-term investor, do nothing and ride out the weakness, since it does not seem like a recession and a sustained bear market are right around the corner. Buy and hold makes sense in the stock market because over-trading your account can lead to underperformance. Just make sure you really are "buy and hold." A lot of people think they are until the losses start. Then they panic and make the wrong move at the wrong time.

--什麼都不做:如果你真的是一個長期投資者,什麼都不做,安然度過疲軟,因為看起來不像是經濟衰退,持續的熊市就在眼前。在股票市場上買入並持有是有意義的,因為過度交易你的賬户可能會導致表現不佳。只要確保你真的“買入並持有”即可。很多人認為他們是,直到損失開始。然後他們驚慌失措,在錯誤的時間做出錯誤的舉動。

-- Be clear about the message -- and the messenger: Keep in mind the limits of what sentiment and technical indicators can tell you. They are not saying the market will fall significantly tomorrow or later this week. They are telling us the market is more vulnerable to a pullback now. So further weakness is more likely and you should prepare for it. And if you come across someone saying he or she knows for certain what the market will do tomorrow or next week, run the other way. (Financial news shows are full of these types.) That person is a charlatan who can do real damage to your portfolio.

--要清楚傳達的信息--以及信使:記住情緒和技術指標可以告訴你的限度。他們並不是説明天或本週晚些時候股市會大幅下跌。他們告訴我們,市場現在更容易受到回調的影響。因此,更有可能出現進一步的疲軟,你應該做好準備。如果你遇到有人説他或她肯定知道明天或下週的市場走勢,那就走另一條路。(財經新聞節目中充斥着這樣的類型。)那個人是個江湖騙子,會對你的投資組合造成真正的損害。

At the time of publication, Michael Brush had no positions in any stocks mentioned in this column. Brush has suggested CLR, KMI, BGNE, CELG, TECS, SOXS and SDS in his stock newsletter Brush Up on Stocks (http://www.uponstocks.com).

在本文發表時,邁克爾·布魯什沒有持有本專欄中提到的任何股票的頭寸。Brush在他的股票時事通訊Brush up Stock(http://www.uponstocks.com).)中建議了CLR、KMI、BGNE、CELG、TECS、SOXS和SDS.

More: Dow is on the verge of a bullish golden cross, but stock-market analysts aren't exactly cheering (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-dow-is-the-verge-of-a-bullish-golden-cross-but-stock-market-analysts-arent-exactly-cheering-2019-03-07)

更多:道瓊斯指數即將迎來看漲的金十字,但股市分析師並不完全為(http://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-dow-is-the-verge-of-a-bullish-golden-cross-but-stock-market-analysts-arent-exactly-cheering-2019-03-07)歡呼

-Michael Brush; 415-439-6400; AskNewswires@dowjones.com

-邁克爾·布魯什;415-439-6400;電子郵件:AskNewswres@dowjones.com



(END) Dow Jones Newswires

(完)道瓊斯通訊社

March 07, 2019 17:59 ET (22:59 GMT)

2019年3月7日美國東部時間17:59(格林尼治標準時間22:59)

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