Corporate America Is Ready to Pay Down Its Debt. That's Bad News for Stocks. -- Barrons.com
Corporate America Is Ready to Pay Down Its Debt. That's Bad News for Stocks. -- Barrons.com
DJ Corporate America Is Ready to Pay Down Its Debt. That's Bad News for Stocks. -- Barrons.com
DJ美國公司已經準備好還清債務了。這對股市來説是個壞消息。--Barrons.com
By Bill Alpert
比爾·阿爾伯特(Bill Alpert)著
Corporate debt levels have fixed-income investors worried. But this is a stock market column and all that debt has been great for equities, because it funded acquisitions, dividends, and stock buybacks. Along with a free-spending Fed and an economic recovery, corporate debt helped drive the market's 10-year run.
公司債務水平讓固定收益投資者感到擔憂。但這是一篇股市專欄，所有這些債務對股市都很有利，因為它為收購、分紅和股票回購提供了資金。伴隨着揮霍無度的美聯儲和經濟復甦，公司債務幫助推動了市場長達10年的上漲。
Now, companies will feel growing pressure to deleverage. Interest rates have risen to 2%, from zero. With investment-grade bonds down nearly 4% this year, money has been leaving taxable-bond funds in search of better-performing alternatives. The stock market may have to continue its run without debt's performance enhancement.
現在，企業將感受到越來越大的去槓桿化壓力。利率已經從零上升到2%。隨着投資級債券今年下跌近4%，資金一直在離開應税債券基金，尋找表現更好的替代品。在沒有債務表現增強的情況下，股市可能不得不繼續運行。
The coming deleveraging has been a theme of Bank of America Merrill Lynch's investment strategist Michael Hartnett, who delights in taking a long view that compares today's market to past events like the Tulip mania or the South Sea Company bubble, not to mention 5,000 years of interest rates. U.S. corporate bond issuance has risen from $1 trillion in 2009 to a projected $13.6 trillion this year, he writes, lifting outstanding corporate debt to nearly $75 trillion. That represents more than 45% of gross domestic product--topping levels reached in the last decade's financial crisis.
即將到來的去槓桿化一直是美銀美林(Bank Of America Merrill Lynch)投資策略師邁克爾·哈特尼特(Michael Hartnett)的主題，他樂於把今天的市場與過去的事件(如鬱金香狂熱或南海公司泡沫)相提並論，更不用説5000年的利率了。他寫道，美國公司債券發行量已從2009年的1萬億美元增加到今年預計的13.6萬億美元，使未償還公司債務增至近75萬億美元。這相當於國內生產總值(GDP)的45%以上，超過了上個十年金融危機時的水平。
Tracking the rise of corporate debt, U.S. stock buybacks rose from $275 billion in 2008, to a projected $4.8 trillion this year, Hartnett notes. Like the market, buybacks have hit all-time highs. But as interest rates rise and profit growth slows, Hartnett predicts a Great Corporate Deleveraging.
Hartnett指出，隨着公司債務的上升，美國股票回購從2008年的2,750億美元增加到今年預計的4.8萬億美元。與市場一樣，回購也創下了歷史新高。但隨着利率上升和利潤增長放緩，哈特尼特預測將出現一場偉大的企業去槓桿化。
Stock buybacks may be losing their punch anyway. Apple (APPL) spent $73 billion repurchasing its stock in the fiscal year ended September 2018, compared with $33 billion in its prior fiscal year. Those share reductions helped boost Apple's reported earnings per share. But the buyback king's shares have slid 20.2% since September's end--dropping 11 percentage points more than the S&P 500. Cisco (CSCO) and Southwest Airlines (LUV) have also enhanced their per-share earnings with buybacks. An exchange-traded fund composed of companies that materially reduce their share counts, the Invesco BuyBack Achievers (PKW), has trailed the market.
股票回購可能無論如何都會失去衝擊力。在截至2018年9月的財年，蘋果公司(Apple)斥資730億美元回購股票，上一財年為330億美元。這些股票減持幫助提振了蘋果公佈的每股收益。但自9月底以來，這位回購之王的股價已經下滑了20.2%，跌幅比標準普爾500指數高出11個百分點。思科(Cisco)和西南航空(Southwest Airlines)也通過回購提高了每股收益。由大幅減少股票數量的公司組成的交易所交易基金(ETF)景順回購Achievers(PKW)落後於市場。
Bankers worry that corporate leverage could become a trigger of the next recession. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has called out nonfinancial corporate debt as something to watch. But Merrill analysts report that corporate borrowing has slowed in recent quarters. Debt levels have eased as a multiple of company cash flows to some 3.4-times earnings before interest, taxes and depreciation. That's down from a recent peak of 3.5-times and compares to a trough of 2.5-times in 2012. Maybe we'll steer clear of the debt cliff.
銀行業者擔心企業槓桿可能成為下一次衰退的導火索。美聯儲主席傑羅姆·鮑威爾(Jerome Powell)指出，非金融公司債務值得關注。但美林分析師報告稱，最近幾個季度企業借款放緩。債務水平與公司現金流的倍數已有所下降，降至利息、税項和折舊前收益(EBITDA)的3.4倍左右。這比最近3.5倍的峯值有所下降，與2012年2.5倍的低谷相比也有所下降。也許我們會避開債務懸崖。
If companies deliver deleverage, that will help them weather a recession. But it does dilute the rocket fuel that has powered the stock market.
如果企業實現去槓桿化，這將幫助它們度過經濟衰退。但它確實稀釋了為股市提供動力的火箭燃料。
Write to Bill Alpert at william.alpert@barrons.com
寫信給Bill Alpert，電子郵件：william.alpert@Barrons.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
(完)道瓊通訊社
November 21, 2018 07:59 ET (12:59 GMT)
2018年11月21日東部時間07：59(格林尼治標準時間12：59)
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