A Vaccine Helps Starbucks and Shake Shack Stock, but Only One Is a Buy -- Barrons.com
A Vaccine Helps Starbucks and Shake Shack Stock, but Only One Is a Buy -- Barrons.com
DJ A Vaccine Helps Starbucks and Shake Shack Stock, but Only One Is a Buy -- Barrons.com
DJ A疫苗幫助星巴克和Shake Shack股票，但只有一種是買入--Barrons.com
By Teresa Rivas
特蕾莎·裏瓦斯(Teresa Rivas)著
Restaurants as a whole have had to shift their strategies during the Covid-19 pandemic, and those centered in big cities have often been among those hit hardest. Facing fewer office workers and tourists -- and with most lacking drive-throughs -- urban locations have seen some of the biggest drop-offs in traffic, when they have been able to open at all.
在新冠肺炎疫情期間，餐館作為一個整體不得不改變策略，而那些集中在大城市的餐館往往受到的打擊最嚴重。面對較少的上班族和遊客--而且大多數都缺乏免下車服務--城市地區的交通降幅最大，而它們已經能夠開放了。
So in a post-pandemic world, companies with disproportionately high exposure to cities -- like Starbucks (SBUX), Shake Shack (SHAK), and Restaurant Brands International's (QSR) Tiim Horton's chain -- could be among the quickest to recover, notes Stifel's Chris O'Cull. While these stocks have moved up recently for precisely that reason, he still boosted his estimates for the companies, writing that a "vaccine could make sales recovery less of a myth."
因此，Stifel的克里斯·奧卡爾指出，在疫情爆發後的世界裏，像星巴克(Starbucks)、Shake Shack和餐飲品牌國際(Restaurant Brands International)的蒂姆·霍頓(Tiim Horton)連鎖店等在城市風險敞口過高的公司可能是復甦最快的公司之一。雖然這些股票最近上漲正是因為這個原因，但他仍然提高了對這些公司的預期，他寫道，“疫苗可以讓銷售復甦變得不那麼虛構。”
O'Cull writes that while a vaccine will go a long way toward helping a recovery in urban centers, three main questions remain: Will remote work remain popular, how quickly will travel begin again, and could the closure of independent restaurants be permanent, reducing competition.
O‘Cull寫道，雖然疫苗將在很長一段時間內幫助城市中心的復甦，但仍然存在三個主要問題：遠程工作是否會繼續流行，旅行重新開始的速度會有多快，以及獨立餐廳的關閉是否會永久性地減少競爭。
At this point, the answers to those questions remain unknown, but it's clear that in recent months, even with many restrictions lifted, traffic in urban centers remains depressed. Traffic is likely to continue trending down, given the recent spike in cases and concern about spread during the winter months.
在這一點上，這些問題的答案仍然是未知的，但很明顯，近幾個月來，即使取消了許多限制，市中心的交通仍然低迷。考慮到最近病例的激增以及對冬季傳播的擔憂，交通流量可能會繼續下降。
However, O'Cull does note that reduced competition from independent rivals does seem very likely to come to fruition -- to the benefit of bigger players -- "providing an opportunity to meaningfully consolidate market share as customers return to core business districts and establish new routines."
然而，奧卡爾確實注意到，來自獨立競爭對手的競爭減少似乎非常有可能實現--對規模更大的公司有利--“隨着客户重返核心商務區並建立新的慣例，提供了一個有意義地鞏固市場份額的機會。”
This optimism leads him to raise his same-restaurants sales projections and earnings estimates for all three companies. The analyst boosted his price targets for each as well, for Starbucks to $108 from $100; Shake Shack to $70 from $65; and Restaurant Brands to $65 from $62.
這種樂觀情緒導致他上調了對所有三家公司的同一家餐廳的銷售預期和收益預期。這位分析師也將這兩家公司的目標價都上調了，星巴克的目標價從100美元上調至108美元，Shake Shack的目標價從65美元上調至70美元，餐飲品牌的目標價從62美元上調至65美元。
He has Buy ratings on Starbucks and Restaurant Brands, but kept a Hold rating on Shake Shack. "While we believe Shake Shack could see the most pronounced unit volume recovery, this appears to be largely priced into shares," he writes. Of the three he thinks Starbucks has the "greatest potential to outpace expectations longer-term."
他對星巴克(Starbucks)和餐飲品牌(Restaurant Brands)有買入評級，但對Shake Shack保持持有評級。他寫道：“雖然我們相信Shake Shack可能會出現最明顯的單位成交量回升，但這似乎在很大程度上反映在股價中。”他認為，在這三家公司中，星巴克“最有可能在長期內超越預期”。
O'Cull sees better days ahead for casual dining stocks too.
奧卡爾也認為休閒餐飲庫存的前景會更好。
Write to Teresa Rivas at teresa.rivas@barrons.com
寫信給Teresa Rivas，電子郵件：teresa.rivas@Barrons.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
(完)道瓊通訊社
November 20, 2020 11:14 ET (16:14 GMT)
2020年11月20日美國東部時間11：14(格林尼治標準時間16：14)
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