Could Stitch Fix Become The New Amazon Of Personal Styling?
Could Stitch Fix Become The New Amazon Of Personal Styling?
This isn't going to be yet another apocalyptic pandemic-related tale. Retail is not dead, but evolving thanks to technological innovation.
這不會是另一個與大流行有關的世界末日故事。零售業並沒有消亡，而是在技術創新的推動下不斷髮展。
Although it saw its stock drop 60%, just like department stores Nordstrom Inc. (NYSE:JWN), Dillard's Inc. (NYSE:DDS) and Macy's Inc. (NYSE:M), Stitch Fix (NASDAQ:SFIX) also saw its prices higher by nearly 20% throughout this unprecedented year.
儘管它的股價下跌了60%，就像百貨商店諾德斯特龍公司(Nordstrom Inc.)一樣。(紐約證券交易所代碼：JWN)，Dillard‘s Inc.(紐約證券交易所代碼：DDS)和梅西百貨公司。(紐約證券交易所股票代碼：M)，Stitch Fix(納斯達克股票代碼：SFIX)的價格在這前所未有的一年中也上漲了近20%。
Stitch Fix is the leading brand taking advantage of online personal styling trends. It is a new business that seeks to disrupt apparel retailing through a subscription selling approach that relies on technologies such as machine learning. There's a lot of potential growth in the industry, which is why Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN) launched its own Personal Shopper by Prime Wardrobe last summer.
Stich Fix是利用在線個人造型趨勢的領先品牌。這是一項尋求通過依賴機器學習等技術的訂閲銷售方式顛覆服裝零售業的新業務。該行業有很大的潛在增長空間，這就是為什麼亞馬遜公司(Amazon.com，Inc.)。納斯達克股票代碼：AMZN)去年夏天推出了自己的“個人購物者”(Personal Shopper By Prime)。
The secret behind Stitch Fix
縫合修復背後的祕密
Stitch Fix's business model mitigates inventory buildup as the data predicts the customer will want. Over time with more items being kept or returned, the predictive algorithms improve and provide the company with valuable knowledge with which it knows exactly when it needs to have items in stock. The good news is that despite the damage from the pandemic, the company is still enjoying robust engagement levels, which adds weight to management's explanation that the recent slowdown was a result of supply challenges rather than demand issues.
Stich Fix的商業模式緩解了庫存積累，因為數據預測了客户的需求。隨着時間的推移，隨着更多的物品被保留或退回，預測算法會得到改進，併為公司提供有價值的知識，使公司準確地知道何時需要庫存物品。好消息是，儘管疫情造成了損害，但該公司仍享有強勁的參與度，這增加了管理層的解釋，即最近的放緩是供應挑戰而不是需求問題的結果。
Performance
性能
Last fiscal year, Stitch Fix's net revenue rose 29%. Despite deceleration, revenue grew by better than 20% through the first half of fiscal 2020, but it stumbled in its latest quarter that ended in early May. The most recent quarter saw the company bleeding cash, with a drop in revenues and profit. Net revenue dropped 9% compared to the same period last year as it amounted to $371.7 million. However, Stitch Fix managed to grow its active client base by 9% as well to 3.4 million over the past year.
上一財年，Stitch Fix的淨收入增長了29%。儘管減速，2020財年上半年收入增長超過20%，但在截至5月初的最新季度遭遇挫折。最近一個季度，該公司現金大量流失，收入和利潤下降。淨收入為3.717億美元，與去年同期相比下降了9%。然而，在過去的一年裏，Stitch Fix設法將其活躍客户羣增長了9%，達到340萬。
The company is no longer providing guidance, but it did point out in early June that it expects a positive year-over-year net revenue growth for the fiscal fourth quarter. Its CEO Lake said in June that the company is ready to play offense and battle the consequences of lockdowns.
該公司不再提供指導，但它在6月初確實指出，預計第四財季淨收入將實現同比正增長。其首席執行官萊克在6月份表示，公司已經準備好進攻，並與封鎖的後果作鬥爭。
Limitation
限制
Stitch Fix's scalability is constrained to the productivity level of its stylists. This could improve with further AI developments, but for now, it is the limiting factor. But its major concern is the vulnerability to external shocks as it failed to capture the accelerated online trend during the pandemic. Therefore, the pandemic only amplified existing growth issues that the company had before the pandemic.
Slot Fix的可伸縮性受限於其造型師的生產力水平。隨着人工智能的進一步發展，這一點可能會有所改善，但就目前而言，這是一個限制因素。但它主要擔心的是易受外部衝擊的脆弱性，因為它未能捕捉到大流行期間加速的在線趨勢。因此，這場大流行只會放大該公司在大流行之前存在的現有增長問題。
How Amazon measures up
亞馬遜是如何衡量的
Amazon isn't putting too much effort on its Stitch Fix alternative simply because it doesn't have to. Amazon is the undisputed emperor of online retail. Stitch Fix's $1.7 billion revenue that it generated over the trailing four quarters is merely 0.5% of Amazon's $322 billion during the same period. This is where the comparison ends.
亞馬遜沒有在其Stitch Fix替代產品上投入太多精力，僅僅是因為它沒有必要這麼做。亞馬遜是無可爭議的在線零售業皇帝。Stich Fix在過去四個季度的營收為17億美元，僅為同期亞馬遜3220億美元營收的0.5%。這就是比較結束的地方。
Outlook
展望
Online personal styling was a booming niche before the pandemic with plenty of growth potential. Without COVID-19, online penetration was expected to rise from 25.2% to 40.3% in 2024. The pandemic pulled online retail fast forward a few years. This trend does benefit Stitch Fix but working and spending so much time at home do not encourage consumers to get new outfits. The combination of these two trends makes it difficult to give any sort of forecasts.
在大流行之前，在線個人造型是一個蓬勃發展的利基市場，具有很大的增長潛力。如果沒有新冠肺炎，預計2024年在線普及率將從25.2%上升到40.3%。這場大流行將在線零售快速推進了幾年。這一趨勢確實對Stitch Fix有利，但工作和在家花費如此多的時間並不能鼓勵消費者購買新衣服。這兩種趨勢結合在一起，很難給出任何形式的預測。
Tale of two tailors
兩個裁縫的故事
Merchandising has shifted to algorithms that can provide a personalized mix of products to suit a consumer's unique taste and attributed. But as big as Amazon may be, it's actually growing faster than Stitch Fix as its net sales rose 40% in its latest quarter.
商品營銷已經轉向了算法，它可以提供個性化的產品組合，以滿足消費者的獨特品味和屬性。不過，儘管亞馬遜規模很大，但它實際上比Stitch Fix增長得更快，因為它在最近一個季度的淨銷售額增長了40%。
The pandemic did inflate Amazon's latest report, just like it deflated the operational results of Stitch Fix. However, if we look at the two previous quarters combined, figures are fairly even, with Amazon only being slightly better with its top line growing slightly better than 23% and Stitch Fix just below 22%. Stitch Fix has an edge in gross margin, but its model has too many cost layers that drain profits. Amazon's biggest strength is that it is a well-diversified leader across several different businesses.
這場流行病確實誇大了亞馬遜的最新報告，就像它壓低了Stitch Fix的運營業績一樣。然而，如果我們看一下前兩個季度的總和，數字相當持平，亞馬遜的表現只略好一些，其營收增長略高於23%，而Stitch Fix的增長略低於22%。Stich Fix在毛利率方面具有優勢，但其模式的成本層太多，導致利潤流失。亞馬遜最大的優勢在於，它在幾個不同的業務領域都是一家多元化的領導者。
Stitch Fix is a worthy consideration for risk-tolerant investors, but Amazon remains the mother of all e-commerce stocks. At least for now. We will know more about its offensive when it releases its financial results for its fourth quarter and full fiscal year 2020 ended August 1, 2020 after market close on Tuesday, September 22, 2020.
對於風險承受能力強的投資者來説，Stich Fix是值得考慮的，但亞馬遜仍是所有電商類股之母。至少現在是這樣。當它在2020年9月22日(星期二)收盤後發佈截至2020年8月1日的第四季度和2020財年全年財務業績時，我們將更多地瞭解它的攻勢。
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這篇帖子能讓Stitch Fix成為個人造型領域的新亞馬遜嗎？第一次出現在IAM新聞通訊社。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。