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Airline Stocks Are Soaring. Why One Analyst Sees More Gains Ahead. -- Barrons.com

Airline Stocks Are Soaring. Why One Analyst Sees More Gains Ahead. -- Barrons.com

航空公司股市飆升。為什麼一位分析師看到更多的收益未來。-Barrons.com
Dow Jones Newswires ·  2020/08/11 23:14

DJ Airline Stocks Are Soaring. Why One Analyst Sees More Gains Ahead. -- Barrons.com

DJ 航空公司股市飆升。為什麼一位分析師看到更多的收益未來。-Barrons.com


By Daren Fonda


由達仁方達

Airline stocks continued to climb on Tuesday, tacking on 4% in morning trading. The stocks have now surged more than 16%, on average, in the last few sessions on signs that domestic travel is picking up and that a vaccine for the coronavirus may be arriving by year-end.

星期二,航空公司股市繼續攀升,早盤交易中增加了 4%。在過去的幾個會議中,有關國內旅行正在接種的跡象,這些股票現在平均飆升了 16% 以上,冠狀病毒疫苗可能會在年底之前到達。

Citigroup's Stephen Trent sees more gains ahead, particularly for Spirit Airlines (ticker: SAVE) and Delta Air Lines (DAL).

花旗集團旗下的斯蒂芬·特倫特看到更多收益,特別是對於精神航空(股票代碼:SAVE)和達美航空(DAL)。

"An ongoing, choppy traffic recovery, combined with what looks to be continued weak pricing, looks like a good setup for Buy-rated Spirit," Trent wrote in a note published Tuesday.

「持續的,波濤洶湧的流量復甦,加上看起來持續疲軟的定價,看起來像是購買評級 Spirit 的一個很好的設置,」特倫特在週二發布的一份紙條中寫道。

Among the major carriers, Citi likes Delta, "owing to its balance sheet strength, attractive loyalty/credit card program...and its consistent messaging on middle seats." (Delta has been one of the few carriers to continue blocking middle seats as a health-safety measure.)

在主要的運營商中,花旗喜歡 Delta,「由於其資產負債表實力,有吸引力的忠誠度/信用卡計劃... 以及中間座位上的一致消息傳遞」。作為健康安全措施,Delta 一直是少數繼續阻塞中間座位的運營商之一。)

Trent has a $21 price target on Spirit's shares, based on a multiple of 8.5 times forward earnings in late 2021 and early 2022. His target on Delta is $38, based on a multiple of eight times forward earnings.

特倫特的股票目標價格為 21 美元,基於 2021 年底和 2022 年初的 8.5 倍遠期收益。他在三角洲的目標是 38 美元,基於八倍向前收益的倍數。

"As the industry's best operator, we think investors will seek refuge in Delta shares once the coronavirus fears abate and sector valuations normalize to long-term trend levels well above current multiples," Trent wrote.

特倫特寫道:「作為業界最好的運營商,我們認為,一旦冠狀病毒擔心減輕,行業估值正常化到遠高於當前倍數的長期趨勢水平,投資者將尋求對達美股票的避難所。

Spirit stock has been one of the strongest performers since March, more than doubling off its lows around $7. The ultralow-cost carrier focuses almost exclusively on the "visiting friends and relatives" market, and it is planning flight capacity in the third quarter to be down 32% from last year, which would be a big improvement over the spring and early summer.

自 3 月以來,精神股票一直是表現最強的表現者之一,其低點在 7 美元左右翻了一倍以上。這家超低成本航空公司幾乎完全專注於「探訪親友」市場,並計劃在第三季度的飛行容量比去年下降 32%,這將是春季和初夏的大改善。

The recovery isn't expected to be linear. Travel demand and flight capacity trends are tough to predict since they have become tethered to coronavirus infection rates and state quarantine rules. Demand seems to have rebounded recently as infection rates receded, but airlines have been cutting their schedules for August and September, anticipating lower leisure travel during the back-to-school season, without business travel picking up the slack.

恢復預計不會是線性的。旅行需求和飛行容量趨勢很難預測,因為它們已經受到冠狀病毒感染率和州隔離規則的束縛。隨著感染率的減少,最近需求似乎有所反彈,但航空公司一直在縮短 8 月和 9 月的時間表,預計在返校季節期間休閒旅行會降低,而商務旅行卻不會因此而鬆懈。

Nonetheless, at least one investor could theoretically make a profit on Spirit stock now: the U.S. government. Shares of Spirit are trading above the strike price of warrants issued to the U.S. Treasury in exchange for federal aid under the Cares Act. (In theory, the government could redeem the warrants for stock and sell at higher market prices.)

儘管如此,理論上至少有一名投資者現在可以從 Spirit 股票上獲利:美國政府。Spirit 股票的交易價格高於向美國財政部發行的權證的行使價,以換取根據《關懷法》的聯邦援助。(理論上,政府可以將權證贖回股票,並以較高的市場價格出售。)

Indeed, shares of almost every carrier that issued warrants are now trading now above their strike prices, according to Trent, including American Airlines Group (AAL), United Airlines Holdings (UAL), and Delta. One exception is Southwest Airlines (LUV), whose stock remains slightly below the strike price.

事實上,根據特倫特(Trent),包括美國航空集團(AAL),美國航空集團(AAL),聯合航空公司(UAL)和達美航空公司現在幾乎所有已發行權證的航空公司的股票現在都高於其行使價。其中一個例外是西南航空(LUV),該公司的股票略低於行使價。

Why does this matter? One reason is that airlines are trying to line up more aid from the government, hoping for a second round of payroll support beyond the $25 billion allocated under the Cares Act. That aid expires on Sept. 30. Airlines have announced plans to cut more than 75,000 jobs, when funding runs out in October, assuming demand trends don't improve sharply.

為什麼這很重要?原因之一是航空公司正試圖排隊政府的更多援助,希望獲得第二輪工資支持,超出根據《關懷法》分配的 250 億美元。該援助將於 9 月 30 日到期。假設需求趨勢沒有急劇改善,航空公司已宣布計劃在 10 月份資金用完時削減 75,000 多個工作崗位。

The warrants issued under the Cares Act could now come into play as a bargaining chip. Congress could set more aggressive strike prices for additional warrants, giving lawmakers political cover as they head into the November elections, Trent notes. Bailing out airlines again could be a tough sell politically, especially if lawmakers can't agree on unemployment benefits and aid to other industries.

根據《關懷法》發行的權證現在可以作為討價還價籌碼發揮作用。特倫特指出,國會可能會為額外的權證設定更具侵略性的行使價格,在立法者進入 11 月選舉時給予政治覆蓋。再次救出航空公司可能是一個艱難的銷售政治, 特別是如果國會議員不能同意失業救濟和援助其他行業.

"Deeper in-the-money warrants on a potential second round of aid might be one way to show taxpayers that their efforts are not in vain," Trent wrote.

特倫特寫道:「關於潛在的第二輪援助的更深入的金錢權證可能是向納稅人表明他們的努力不是徒勞的一種方法。」

If the stocks continue to rally from here, the Treasury could see a nice return on its warrant investment.

如果股票從這裡繼續上漲,財政部可以看到其權證投資的良好回報。

Whether airlines would take more government money under tougher conditions remains unknown. And with negotiations on a stimulus package apparently stalled, it is unclear when more financing could start flowing. For now, the reason to own the stocks would be hopes that the virus infection rates continue to decline and that the economy springs back to life.

航空公司是否會在更嚴格的條件下採取更多的政府資金仍未知數。隨著對刺激計劃的談判顯然停滯不前,目前尚不清楚更多的融資何時可能開始流動。就目前而言,擁有股票的原因將是希望病毒感染率繼續下降,並且經濟恢復生機。

Write to Daren Fonda at daren.fonda@barrons.com

寫信給達仁方達電子郵件 daren.fonda@barrons.com

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

(完) 道瓊斯通訊社

August 11, 2020 11:14 ET (15:14 GMT)

2020 年 8 月 11 日上午 11 時 14 分(格林威治標準時間 15:14)

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