The Biggest Risk for Tesla Stock? 15 Years of Underperformance.
The Biggest Risk for Tesla Stock? 15 Years of Underperformance.
Earlier this month, Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA ) bulls cheered on a fourth straight quarter of profitability. Those bearish on Tesla stock pointed out that the company’s electric vehicle regulatory credit sales accounted for all its net income.
本月早些時候， 特斯拉 (納斯達克：特拉斯)多頭為連續第四個季度盈利而歡呼。那些看空特斯拉股票的人指出，該公司的電動汽車監管信貸銷售佔了其所有淨收入。
Source: Sheila Fitzgerald / Shutterstock.com
來源：Sheila Fitzgerald/Shutterstock.com
At this point, Tesla stock is trading purely on its long-term story. Tesla bulls believe bears are being short-sighted. But there’s another risk to Tesla other than the bear thesis. Even if the long-term bull thesis is correct, TSLA may be staring down the barrel of 15 years of underperformance.
在這一點上，特斯拉的股票完全是根據其長期故事進行交易的。特斯拉多頭認為空頭目光短淺。但除了熊市論斷之外，特斯拉還面臨着另一個風險。即使長期看漲的觀點是正確的，TSLA可能也在盯着15年表現不佳的槍管。
The Numbers for Tesla Stock
特斯拉股票的數字
Tesla stock investors clearly don’t care about numbers. But over the long term, the numbers will ultimately dictate the story.
特斯拉的股票投資者顯然不關心數字。但從長遠來看，數字最終將決定故事的走向。
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Tesla reported second-quarter adjusted earnings per share of $2.18, easily beating consensus analyst estimates of 3 cents. Revenue of $6.04 billion also topped analyst estimates of $5.37 billion.
特斯拉公佈第二季度調整後每股收益為2.18美元，輕鬆超過分析師普遍預期的3美分。營收為60.4億美元，也超過了分析師預期的53.7億美元。
In the same quarter a year ago, Tesla reported a $1.12 per-share loss and $6.35 billion in revenue. Revenue in the second quarter was down 4.9% from 2019. Previously reported vehicle deliveries for the second quarter were 90,650, down 4.7% from a year ago.
去年同期，特斯拉公佈每股虧損1.12美元，營收63.5億美元。第二季度營收較2019年下降4.9%。此前公佈的第二季度汽車交付量為90,650輛，同比下降4.7%。
Auto gross margins in the quarter were 25.4%, down 0.1% from last quarter and up 6.5% from a year ago. Free cash flow for the quarter was $418 million, down 32% from a year ago.
當季汽車毛利率為25.4%，較上季下滑0.1%，較上年同期上升6.5%。該季度自由現金流為4.18億美元，同比下降32%。
In a nutshell, Tesla reported negative revenue, auto sales and free cash flow growth in the second quarter. Yet the company was able to far exceed profit expectations due to $428 million in regulatory credit sales, up 286% from a year ago.
簡而言之，特斯拉報告第二季度營收、汽車銷量和自由現金流增長為負。然而，由於4.28億美元的監管信貸銷售，該公司能夠遠遠超出利潤預期，同比增長286%。
In my opinion, the numbers for Tesla are impressive in a difficult global environment. However, year-over-year growth numbers were still fairly lackluster given the recent launch of the Model Y and the opening of the company’s China factory late in 2019.
在我看來，在艱難的全球環境下，特斯拉的數字令人印象深刻。然而，考慮到最近推出的Model Y和2019年末該公司在中國的工廠開業，同比增長數據仍然相當平淡。
TSLA’s Valuation
TSLA的估值
Trading at $1,500 per share, Tesla stock has a market capitalization of about $280 billion. Tesla now trades at about 103 times forward earnings and 11.8 times sales. Tesla’s forward earnings multiple is about nine times the average multiple of Ford (NYSE: F ), General Motors (NYSE: GM ) and Toyota (NYSE: TM ) at 11.3. Tesla’s price-to-sales ratio is about 29 times higher than the 0.4 average of its auto stock peers.
特斯拉股票的交易價格為每股1500美元，市值約為2800億美元。特斯拉目前的預期市盈率約為103倍，銷售額約為11.8倍。特斯拉的預期市盈率約為其平均市盈率的九倍福特紐約證券交易所代碼： F ), 通用汽車 紐約證券交易所代碼：全球機制)和豐田紐約證券交易所代碼：TM)11時3分。特斯拉的市銷率約為其汽車股同業平均0.4倍的29倍。
When comparing Tesla’s valuation instead to the average valuations of high-growth mega-cap tech stocks Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN ), Facebook (NASDAQ: FB ) and Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOGL ), Tesla is also extremely overvalued. Tesla’s forward earnings multiple is 133% higher than tech peer averages. Tesla’s price-to-sales ratio of 11.8 is 72.7% higher than tech peers. Not to mention that Tesla’s growth rate was actually negative in the second quarter.
In other words, Tesla’s valuation isabsurdly highrelative to both auto peers and high-growth tech peers.
換句話説，相對於汽車同行和高速增長的科技同行，特斯拉的估值高得離譜。
The Problem with the Bull Case
布爾案的問題在於
Tesla investors can laugh off its extremely high valuation all they want. They can say the numbers will eventually line up with the stock price. But the million-dollar question is exactly how long will that take?
特斯拉投資者可以對其極高的估值一笑置之。他們可以説，這些數字最終將與股價保持一致。但百萬美元的問題是，這到底需要多長時間？
Back in 2000, long-term investors recognized that Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT ) had a massive long-term growth opportunity with its Windows operating system. From 2000 to 2015, Microsoft’s revenue skyrocketed 327%. But because Microsoft’s stock price got so absurdly high back in 2000, the stock dropped 20% overall from the beginning of 2000 to the beginning of 2015.
早在2000年，長期投資者就認識到 微軟 (納斯達克：MSFT)的Windows操作系統帶來了巨大的長期增長機會。從2000年到2015年，微軟的營收飆升了327%。但由於微軟的股價在2000年高得離譜，從2000年初到2015年初，該股整體下跌了20%。
Louis Stevensrecently made a much more in-depth comparison between the bubble in Tesla stock today and the 2000 bubble in Cisco Systems (NASDAQ: CSCO ).
路易斯·史蒂文斯(Louis Stevens)最近對今天的特斯拉股票泡沫和2000年的泡沫進行了更深入的比較 思科系統 (納斯達克：CSCO).
The point is that Tesla stock bulls may be 100% correct that Tesla will take bite after bite out of the global auto industry each year for the next 15 years or more. But at the stock’s current valuation, there’s not much upside even if that actually happens.
問題是，看漲特斯拉股票的人可能是100%正確的，即特斯拉將在未來15年或更長時間內每年一口接一口地蠶食全球汽車業。但以該股目前的估值來看，即使這真的發生了，也沒有太大的上行空間。
Long-term Microsoft buyers back in 2020 were right about the company’s growth outlook. But because they bought the stock as such ridiculous valuations, they lost 15 years and 20% of their investment.
早在2020年，微軟的長期買家對公司增長前景的預測是正確的。但由於他們以如此荒謬的估值買入這隻股票，他們損失了15年和20%的投資。
How to Play It
怎麼玩呢？
Bernstein analystToni Sacconaghiis the latest analyst to downgrade Tesla stock.
伯恩斯坦(Bernstein)分析師託尼·薩克納吉(Toni Sacconaghii)是最新一位下調特斯拉股票評級的分析師。
“Despite our relatively bullish stance on electric vehicle evolution, and structural advantages we believe Tesla may hold, we find it difficult to justify Tesla’s current valuation even under our most bullish/imaginative scenarios,” Sacconaghi says.
薩克納吉表示：“儘管我們對電動汽車的發展持相對樂觀的立場，而且我們認為特斯拉可能擁有結構性優勢，但我們發現，即使在我們最樂觀/最具想象力的情況下，也很難證明特斯拉目前的估值是合理的。”
He’s conceding the Tesla stock growth story may happen exactly the way bulls say it will. And his rating is “underperform” with a $900 price target.
他承認，特斯拉股票增長的故事可能會像看漲人士所説的那樣發生。他的評級為“表現不佳”，目標價為900美元。
If you’re a fan of Tesla cars, buy them, drive them and retweet Elon Musk. But don’t lose 15 years of potential market gains by buying Tesla stock at its current valuation.
如果你是特斯拉汽車的粉絲，買下它們，開着它們，然後轉發埃隆·馬斯克(Elon Musk)。但不要因為以目前的估值買入特斯拉股票而失去15年的潛在市場收益。
Wayne Duggan has been a U.S. News & World Report Investing contributor since 2016 and is a staff writer at Benzinga, where he has written more than 7,000 articles. Mr. Duggan is the author of the bookBeating Wall Street With Common Sense, which focuses on investing psychology and practical strategies to outperform the stock market. As of this writing, Wayne Duggan was long GM and GOOGL.
韋恩·達根(Wayne Duggan)自2016年以來一直是《美國新聞與世界報道》(U.S.News&World Report)的投資撰稿人，也是Benzinga的專職作家，他在Benzinga撰寫了7000多篇文章。杜根是《用常識戰勝華爾街》(Beating Wall Street With Common Sense)一書的作者，該書專注於投資心理和超越股市的實用策略。在撰寫本文時，韋恩·達根(Wayne Duggan)是通用汽車和谷歌(GOOGL)的多頭。
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The postThe Biggest Risk for Tesla Stock? 15 Years of Underperformance.appeared first onInvestorPlace.
特斯拉股票面臨的最大風險是什麼？15年來表現不佳。這篇帖子在InvestorPlace上排名第一。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。