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Eating In for Breakfast Is Healthy, but Not for Starbucks and McDonald's -- Barrons.com

Eating In for Breakfast Is Healthy, but Not for Starbucks and McDonald's -- Barrons.com

在家裏吃早餐是健康的,但對星巴克和麥當勞來説就不是了--Barrons.com
Dow Jones Newswires ·  2020/07/30 18:59

DJ Eating In for Breakfast Is Healthy, but Not for Starbucks and McDonald's -- Barrons.com

DJ在家吃早餐是健康的,但對星巴克和麥當勞來説就不是了--Barrons.com


By Teresa Rivas

特蕾莎·裏瓦斯(Teresa Rivas)著

Your mother probably told you to eat a healthy, balanced breakfast. Did you listen? Perhaps not until now, as the Covid-19 pandemic has forced many more of us to stop eating at fast-food restaurants for what health advocates consider the most important meal of the day.

你媽媽可能告訴過你要吃健康均衡的早餐。你聽了嗎?也許直到現在,新冠肺炎疫情已經迫使我們更多的人停止在快餐店就餐,因為健康倡導者認為快餐店是一天中最重要的一餐。

Just look at McDonald's (ticker: MCD) and Starbucks (SBUX). The quick-service giants both reported earnings on Tuesday, and while there were some positive aspects of the results, breakfast sales continued to be a laggard.

看看麥當勞(股票代碼:MCD)和星巴克(SBUX)就知道了。這兩家快餐巨頭週二都公佈了財報,雖然業績有一些積極的方面,但早餐銷售繼續落後。

With millions of people unemployed and millions more working remotely, many people no longer have a morning commute, or have the spare cash for a pricey coffee and breakfast sandwich. Add in people's increasing comfort with cooking for themselves, and delayed reopening plans in some areas badly affected by the virus' resurgence, and there is little incentive to get up early and go out to eat.

隨着數百萬人失業,數百萬人遠程工作,許多人不再有早上的通勤時間,或者有閒錢買一份昂貴的咖啡和早餐三明治。再加上人們對自己做飯越來越舒服,一些受病毒捲土重來影響嚴重的地區推遲了重新開放的計劃,幾乎沒有動力早起出去吃飯。

The problem is bigger for Starbucks, given it is more levered to the early part of the day, and has a higher proportion of its stores in urban areas with no drive-throughs. It's no wonder then that the shares have fallen more than 12% since the start of 2020.

星巴克的問題對它來説更大,因為它每天早上的槓桿率更高,而且它在城市地區的門店中沒有免下車餐廳的比例更高。因此,自2020年初以來,該公司股價下跌超過12%也就不足為奇了。

The company estimated it lost more than $3 billion in sales in its most recent quarter because of the pandemic, and it appears that the Chinese market, where Starbucks has a large footprint, won't rebound as quickly as some bulls had hoped.

該公司估計,由於疫情的影響,它在最近一個季度的銷售額損失了30多億美元,而且星巴克在中國市場的足跡很大,似乎不會像一些看漲人士希望的那樣迅速反彈。

Analysts have been quick to argue that the company has the wherewithal to survive recessions and emerge stronger, and CFRA analyst Tuna Amobi upgraded Starbucks to Buy from Hold, with a $90 price target, arguing that the company as an "ample liquidity buffer" of more than $4 billion, and the most recent quarter will likely be a "trough for the severe financial hit" it is seeing as a result of Covid-19.

分析師們很快就辯稱,星巴克有足夠的資金度過經濟衰退,變得更強大。CFRA分析師金槍魚·阿莫比將星巴克的評級從持有上調至買入,目標價為90美元,認為星巴克擁有40多億美元的“充足流動性緩衝”,最近一個季度很可能是“新冠肺炎帶來的嚴重財務打擊的谷底”。

Eventually there will be a treatment or vaccine and regular life can resume, including breakfast on the go. The question is how patient will investors be, especially if more lockdowns happen this winter.

最終會有治療或疫苗,正常的生活可以恢復,包括匆忙中的早餐。問題是投資者會有多大的耐心,特別是如果今年冬天發生更多的停工。

Starbucks shares rose 3.7% to $77.42 on Wednesday, as the S&P 500 rose 1.2%.

星巴克股價週三上漲3.7%,報77.42美元,標普500指數上漲1.2%。

McDonald's has the advantage of not being as dependent on breakfast as Starbucks is. The morning meal accounts for about a quarter of its sales. However, in its most recent report it said was gaining market share in breakfast, which RBC Capital Markets' analyst Christopher Carril suspects it is taking from independent restaurants, many of which remain closed or are operating with reduced scale and hours.

麥當勞的優勢在於不像星巴克那樣依賴早餐。早餐約佔其銷售額的四分之一。然而,在其最新報告中,該公司表示,早餐的市場份額正在增加,加拿大皇家銀行資本市場(RBC Capital Markets)分析師克里斯托弗·卡里爾(Christopher Carril)懷疑,該公司正在從獨立餐廳手中奪取早餐市場份額,其中許多餐廳仍處於關閉狀態,或正在縮減規模和營業時間。

The company has highlighted innovation, speed of service, and increased marketing as competitive advantages in the breakfast segment, allowing it to claw back some business. It's shares are up 0.7% year to date, close to the S&P 500's 0.9% gain and well ahead of the 7% loss for the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

該公司強調創新、服務速度和增加營銷是早餐領域的競爭優勢,使其能夠奪回一些業務。今年到目前為止,該公司股價上漲了0.7%,接近標準普爾500指數0.9%的漲幅,遠高於道瓊斯工業股票平均價格指數(Dow Jones Industrial Average)7%的跌幅。

Investors probably started the year with different hopes, and many of McDonald's plans were put on hold, including an increased focus on breakfast, improved drive-through speeds, and a new chicken sandwich. Yet Evercore ISI's David Palmer wrote that it's worth noting that the company's U.S. business "leads the world," with comparable sales in the low-single digits and steady share gain. "Covid has provided a crash course in why McDonald's trades at a premium," he concluded.

投資者可能懷着不同的希望開始了這一年,麥當勞的許多計劃都被擱置了,包括更多地關注早餐,提高免下車速度,以及一種新的雞肉三明治。然而,Evercore ISI的大衞·帕爾默(David Palmer)寫道,值得注意的是,該公司的美國業務“領先於世界”,可比銷售額處於較低的個位數,市場份額穩步增長。“Covid提供了一個速成課程,解釋為什麼麥當勞的交易溢價,”他總結道。

In short, breakfast may be the last meal of the day that Americans start to regularly dine out for again, but patient investors shouldn't discount the staying power of the biggest players.

簡而言之,早餐可能是一天中美國人再次開始定期外出就餐的最後一餐,但耐心的投資者不應低估最大玩家的持久力。

Write to Teresa Rivas at teresa.rivas@barrons.com

寫信給Teresa Rivas,電子郵件:teresa.rivas@Barrons.com

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

(完)道瓊斯通訊社

July 30, 2020 06:59 ET (10:59 GMT)

2020年7月30日東部時間06:59(格林尼治標準時間10:59)

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