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U.S. Banks Face Up to US$320 Billion in Credit Write-offs in 2020 Due to COVID-19, Accenture Report Finds

U.S. Banks Face Up to US$320 Billion in Credit Write-offs in 2020 Due to COVID-19, Accenture Report Finds

埃森哲報告發現,由於新冠肺炎,美國銀行2020年面臨高達3,200億美元的信貸沖銷
Business Wire ·  2020/07/28 11:59

Banks ramp up credit management capabilities to help support small businesses and consumers weather the financial impact of the global pandemic

銀行加強信貸管理能力,幫助小企業和消費者渡過全球大流行帶來的金融衝擊。

As many countries across the globe shift from public-led stimulus to private-led debt to reduce the impact of COVID-19 on the financial system, the burden to keep the economy running will largely fall to private lenders. U.S. banks will set aside up to $320 billion to cover potential credit losses in 2020 due to the financial strain of the pandemic, according to a new report from Accenture (NYSE: ACN).

隨着全球許多國家從公共主導的刺激轉向私人主導的債務,以減少新冠肺炎對金融體系的影響,保持經濟運行的負擔將在很大程度上落在私人貸款機構的肩上。根據來自美國的一份新報告,美國各銀行將撥出高達3200億美元的資金,以彌補2020年由於疫情帶來的財務壓力而可能造成的信貸損失。埃森哲(紐約證券交易所代碼:ACN)。

This press release features multimedia. View the full release here: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20200728005228/en/

本新聞稿以多媒體為特色。點擊此處查看完整版本:https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20200728005228/en/

Risk.jpg

Banks’ cost of risk in times of crisis

銀行在危機時期的風險成本

Titled “ How Banks Can Prepare for the Looming Credit Crisis ,” the report projects that banks globally will set aside up to 2.4% of their existing credit books to cover expected losses in unpaid loans ―nearly double what banks wrote off during the 2008 global financial crisis. The impact will vary across the globe depending upon the level of government-funded stimulus programs and the severity of the public health aspect of COVID-19. In the U.S., around 9% of home loans were in forbearance as of June, up 6 percentage points since March. In the U.K., payment holidays were issued on one in six mortgages and 1.5 million credit cards and personal loans.

這份題為“銀行如何為迫在眉睫的信貸危機做好準備”的報告預計,全球銀行將從現有信貸賬簿中提取至多2.4%的準備金,以彌補未償還貸款的預期損失,這幾乎是2008年全球金融危機期間銀行減記的兩倍。根據政府資助的刺激計劃的水平和新冠肺炎公共衞生方面的嚴重程度,全球的影響將有所不同。在美國,截至6月份,約有9%的住房貸款處於忍耐狀態,自3月份以來上升了6個百分點。在英國,六分之一的抵押貸款、150萬張信用卡和個人貸款發放了付款假期。

“Banks will play a critical role in helping absorb the economic impact of the global pandemic and stimulating a rapid recovery for consumers and small businesses,” said Alan McIntyre, a senior managing director at Accenture who leads its Banking practice globally. “As public programs wind down, the burden of holding extra capital to protect against credit defaults will fall on banks’ balance sheets. To inform their credit management strategies, banks will need a clear-sighted and data-driven view of the current level of credit risk while keeping a long-term view of the customer at the forefront.”

埃森哲(Accenture)高級董事總經理艾倫·麥金太爾(Alan McIntyre)表示:“銀行將在幫助吸收全球疫情對經濟的影響,並刺激消費者和小企業迅速復甦方面發揮關鍵作用。”麥金太爾負責埃森哲的全球銀行業務。“隨着公共計劃的結束,持有額外資本以防範信用違約的負擔將落在銀行的資產負債表上。要為其信貸管理策略提供信息,銀行將需要對當前的信貸風險水平有一個清晰的、以數據為導向的觀點,同時保持對客户的長期看法。“

In 2019, U.S. banks set aside US$55 billion to cover potential loan losses; Accenture estimates that banks will need to hold an additional US$210 billion to US$265 billion to cover potential write-offs for bad loans in 2020 depending on the severity of the public health aspect of COVID-19. In Europe, banks might write off up to US$460 billion in 2020, an increase of US$370 billion from 2019; and in China, banks might write off up to US$360 billion in 2020, a US$190 billion increase from 2019.

2019年,美國銀行業撥備550億美元以彌補潛在的貸款損失;埃森哲估計,根據新冠肺炎公共衞生方面的嚴重程度,銀行將需要額外持有2,100億至2,650億美元,以彌補2020年潛在的壞賬核銷。在歐洲,銀行可能在2020年沖銷至多4600億美元,比2019年增加3700億美元;在中國,銀行可能在2020年沖銷至多3600億美元,比2019年增加1900億美元。

In the increasingly debt-driven economy, banks are faced with managing their existing loan books while also making decisions around extending new credit. The report notes that doing so could lead to record levels of public and private debt worldwide, which some analysts predict could reach as high as $200 trillion by the end of 2020. This might ultimately threaten the ability of businesses and consumers to repay their debts.

在日益受到債務驅動的經濟中,銀行面臨着管理現有貸款賬簿的問題,同時還需要圍繞發放新信貸做出決定。報告指出,這樣做可能導致全球公共和私人債務達到創紀錄水平,一些分析師預測,到2020年底,全球公共和私人債務可能高達200萬億美元。這可能最終會威脅到能力企業和消費者償還債務的能力。

Large banks in a position of strength when the pandemic hit

大流行來襲時,大銀行處於強勢地位

Many banks entered the pandemic with the financial resilience to absorb considerable credit losses, with the world’s largest banks holding capital reserves well above what regulators require, according to Accenture analysis. The report notes that the top five U.S. banks set aside US$60 billion in reserves during the first half of the year and that European banks set aside almost US$18 billion in the first quarter of 2020. These reserves will start to be drawn down as stimulus funding dries up, causing accounts to go delinquent.

埃森哲(Accenture)的分析顯示,許多銀行帶着吸收鉅額信貸損失的財務韌性進入疫情,全球最大的幾家銀行持有的資本儲備遠高於監管機構的要求。報告指出,美國前五大銀行在今年上半年撥備了600億美元的準備金,歐洲銀行在2020年第一季度撥備了近180億美元。隨着刺激資金枯竭,這些儲備將開始耗盡,導致賬户拖欠。

“Banks will have to maneuver carefully to strike the right balance between rescuing individual and small business customers and protecting their own profitability and solvency,” McIntyre said. “This will require difficult decisions around which credit extensions will help an ultimately financially viable customer versus delaying the inevitable delinquency. To make these decisions, banks can apply the firepower of data and analytics capabilities that they’ve built over the past decade to help inform surgical credit management strategies tailored for specific industries and geographies ―ultimately providing the type of high-end treatment typically reserved for high-net-worth and corporate customers.”

麥金太爾説:“銀行將不得不謹慎操作,在拯救個人和小企業客户與保護自身盈利和償付能力之間取得適當的平衡。”“這將需要做出艱難的決定,決定哪些信貸延期將幫助最終在財務上可行的客户,而不是推遲不可避免的拖欠。”為了做出這些決定,銀行可以利用過去十年建立的數據和分析能力,幫助制定針對特定行業和地區的外科信貸管理戰略,最終提供通常為高淨值和企業客户保留的高端待遇。

Banks’ temporary blind-spot in credit management

銀行信貸管理的暫時盲區

The report notes that in an environment where payment holidays aren’t being reflected in consumers’ credit scores and the underlying health of a business is masked by furlough and payroll protection schemes, banks can take a data-driven approach to manage their credit portfolio. This approach can provide a broader context of the current environment and how business and consumer behaviors have changed as a result of COVID-19.

報告指出,在支付假期沒有反映在消費者信用評分中,企業的潛在健康狀況被休假和工資保護計劃掩蓋的環境中,銀行可以採取數據驅動的方法來管理其信貸組合。這種方法可以提供當前環境的更廣泛背景,以及新冠肺炎帶來的企業和消費者行為發生了怎樣的變化。

Over the past decade, banks’ credit management units have shrunk back to bare bones. Many banks will need to quickly scale up resources and collections capabilities to a magnitude beyond what they can traditionally handle to meet the expected rising levels of default. By combining the digital technologies they’ve built over the past decade with their people on the front lines, banks can provide personalized advice and empathetic guidance to offer creative solutions to help customers bridge the widening financial gap.

在過去的十年裏,銀行的信貸管理部門已經縮減到了最基本的規模。許多銀行將需要迅速擴大資源和催收能力,達到它們傳統上無法應對的規模,以滿足預期不斷上升的違約水平。通過將過去十年建立的數字技術與一線的員工相結合,銀行可以提供個性化的建議和同理心的指導,提供創造性的解決方案,幫助客户彌合不斷擴大的財務差距。

The report provides recommendations for how banks can strengthen their credit management capabilities and prepare their business and operations for the challenges to come, while managing potentially conflicting priorities. These include:engaging with regulators to avoid/minimize unintended consequences such as new credit drying up;operating with clear guidance and transparency on collections and recovery;ensuring fair treatment for borrowers while also having a clear view of customers’ creditworthiness; andmanaging balance sheet risk while providing advice that helps businesses and consumers navigate through the financial crisis.

該報告就銀行如何加強其信貸管理能力,並使其業務和運營為未來的挑戰做好準備,同時管理可能相互衝突的優先事項提出了建議。這些措施包括:與監管機構接觸,以避免/最大限度地減少新信貸枯竭等意想不到的後果;在收款和回收方面提供明確的指導和透明度;確保對借款人的公平待遇,同時清楚地瞭解客户的信譽;管理資產負債表風險,同時提供幫助企業和消費者度過金融危機的建議。

“While it might be tempting for banks to pull back on extending new credit in the current environment, the demand for credit will rise and be met ― if not by banks then by non-traditional lenders,” McIntyre said. “Competition isn’t coming just from fintechs and big tech, but increasingly from large, well-capitalized companies offering finance options for their products and services. If banks attempt to aggressively reduce offers of credit, what might start as a slow trickle of customers turning to alternate lenders could quickly become roaring rapids that can drastically change the tide of lending.”

麥金太爾表示:“儘管在當前環境下,銀行可能會忍不住收回發放新信貸,但信貸需求將會上升,並得到滿足--如果不是由銀行滿足,那就是由非傳統貸款機構滿足。”“競爭不僅來自金融技術公司和大型科技公司,而且越來越多地來自資本雄厚的大公司,為其產品和服務提供融資選擇。如果銀行試圖大刀闊斧地減少信貸供應,最初客户轉向備用貸款人的緩慢涓涓細流可能很快就會變成咆哮的急流,可能會徹底改變放貸的潮流。

The full report can be accessed here: https://www.accenture.com/us-en/insights/banking/coronavirus-credit-crisis .

完整的報告可以在這裏訪問:https://www.accenture.com/us-en/insights/banking/coronavirus-credit-crisis。

About Accenture

關於埃森哲

Accenture is a leading global professional services company, providing a broad range of services in strategy and consulting, interactive, technology and operations, with digital capabilities across all of these services. We combine unmatched experience and specialized capabilities across more than 40 industries – powered by the world’s largest network of Advanced Technology and Intelligent Operations centers. With 513,000 people serving clients in more than 120 countries, Accenture brings continuous innovation to help clients improve their performance and create lasting value across their enterprises. Visit us at www.accenture.com .

埃森哲是一家領先的全球專業服務公司,在戰略和諮詢、互動、技術和運營方面提供廣泛的服務,並擁有涵蓋所有這些服務的數字能力。我們結合了40多個行業無與倫比的經驗和專業能力-由世界上最大的先進技術和智能運營中心網絡提供支持。埃森哲擁有513,000名員工,為120多個國家和地區的客户提供服務,不斷創新,幫助客户提高業績,為企業創造持久價值。請訪問www.accenture.com。

譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。


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