The Pandemic Keeps Shutting Gyms. That's Good for Peloton. -- Barrons.com

大流行使健身房不断关闭。这对佩洛顿来说是件好事。--Barrons.com

2020/07/21 01:59  Dow Jones Newswires

DJ The Pandemic Keeps Shutting Gyms. That's Good for Peloton. -- Barrons.com


By Teresa Rivas

Peloton Interactive stock has jumped nearly 125% in 2020, and Wedbush argues that the at-home workout company will keep climbing as the pandemic pushes more people to turn to its products.

Analyst James Hardiman reiterated an Outperform rating on Peloton (ticker: PTON) and raised his price target by $3 to $66. The spread of Covid-19 has made the market Peloton can target far larger, he said.

The stock's big run recently means that expectations are high for its earnings report, due in early August, and that it could drop in response to news about gyms reopening, he warned.

Yet at the same time, there's reason to think that the company can deliver strong results. Judging by mentions on social media and Peloton's own metrics, engagement data in the past three months "were all through the roof, accelerating relative to the already-strong growth seen in the March quarter, and in each case reaching uncharted territory despite what would normally be a sequential decline in the June quarter as outdoor exercise opportunities become a viable option," Hardiman wrote.

Clearly, people are still sticking to indoor workouts despite summer weather. Hardiman is estimating that the company will deliver 126% year-over-year growth in subscribers when it reports, while the average estimate among analysts is for an increase of 108%.

Then there is the fact that a resurgence of coronavirus in some parts of the country mean that gyms are once again feeling the pinch. States are taking different approaches to the uptick in cases, and while the overall picture may show that slightly more gyms are open this month than last, Hardiman said he "can't help but believe the country is more skittish with regards to crowded gyms than a month ago."

That makes Peloton a more attractive option. Its position as the dominant player has only been magnified by the underwhelming rollout of the SoulCycle At-Home bike, Hardiman wrote.

Peloton was up 9.1% to $63.85 in afternoon trading. That leaves Hardiman's stock-price target a bit more than $2 above where the shares stand now.

The stock has risen so quickly that many bulls think that it can keep rising -- if not as fast. From the demand for its bikes, to the potential for its treadmill products and the minimal impact from gym reopenings, analysts have been quick to point out the continuing factors that could Peloton's rally going.

Still, some are hesitant about valuation. The company isn't expected to turn a profit this fiscal year or next.

Write to Teresa Rivas at teresa.rivas@barrons.com

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

July 20, 2020 13:59 ET (17:59 GMT)

Copyright (c) 2020 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

大流行使健身房不断关闭。这对佩洛顿来说是件好事。--Barrons.com


特蕾莎·里瓦斯(Teresa Rivas)著

佩洛顿互动公司的股票在2020年上涨了近125%,韦德布什认为,随着大流行推动更多的人转向其产品,这家在家锻炼公司的股价将继续攀升。

分析师詹姆斯·哈迪曼(James Hardiman)重申了对peloton(股票代码:PTON)的表现优于大盘的评级,并将目标价上调了3美元,至66美元。他说,新冠肺炎的蔓延使得佩洛顿可以瞄准的市场要大得多。

他警告说,该股最近的大幅上涨意味着,人们对其将于8月初发布的收益报告预期很高,而健身房重新开放的消息可能会导致该股下跌。

然而,与此同时,我们有理由认为该公司能够带来强劲的业绩。哈迪曼写道,从社交媒体上的提及和佩洛顿自己的指标来看,过去三个月的参与度数据“都达到了顶峰,相对于3月份这个季度已经很强劲的增长速度有所加快,每一次都达到了未知的领域,尽管随着户外锻炼机会成为一个可行的选择,6月份这个季度通常会出现连续下降。”

显然,尽管夏天天气炎热,人们仍然坚持室内锻炼。哈迪曼预计,该公司在公布财报时,订户数量将同比增长126%,而分析师的平均预期为增长108%。

还有一个事实是,冠状病毒在该国一些地区的卷土重来意味着健身房再次感受到了压力。各州正在采取不同的方法来应对病例的上升,虽然总体情况可能显示本月开放的健身房比上个月略多,但哈迪曼表示,他“不禁相信,这个国家对拥挤的健身房比一个月前更不安了。”

这使得佩洛顿成为一个更具吸引力的选择。哈迪曼写道,它作为主导参与者的地位只会因为SoulCycle At-Home自行车平淡无奇的推出而被放大。

Peloton在下午的交易中上涨9.1%,至63.85美元。这使得哈迪曼的目标股价比目前的股价高出2美元多一点。

该股上涨如此之快,以至于许多看涨的人认为它可以继续上涨--如果不是那么快的话。从对其自行车的需求,到其跑步机产品的潜力,以及健身房重新开业的最小影响,分析师们很快指出了可能导致佩洛顿反弹的持续因素。

尽管如此,一些人对估值犹豫不决。预计该公司不会在本财年或下一财年实现盈利。

写信给Teresa Rivas,电子邮件:teresa.rivas@Barrons.com

(完)道琼斯通讯社

2020年7月20日美国东部时间13:59(格林尼治标准时间17:59)

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