Macy’s Stock Won’t Have a V-Shaped Recovery
Macy’s Stock Won’t Have a V-Shaped Recovery
Macy’s (NYSE: M ) was already struggling before the novel coronavirus. And it’s safe to say the retailer will continue to struggle. Macy’s stock may have bounced back a bit from its March selloff lows. But, it’s hard to see shares rallying even higher from here.
梅西百貨紐約證券交易所代碼： M )在新的冠狀病毒之前就已經在苦苦掙紮了。可以肯定的是，這家零售商將繼續苦苦掙扎。梅西百貨的股價可能已經從3月份的拋售低點反彈了一點。但是，很難看到股價從現在開始進一步反彈。
Source: Joe Tabacca / Shutterstock.com
來源：Joe Tabacca/Shutterstock.com
First, it was big-box stores that captured a great deal of its legacy market share. But now, with the rise of e-commerce, the department store giant faces another major competitive threat. Add in high debt, lease liabilities and a bloated cost structure. Put it all together, and it looks like tough times will continue.
首先，大賣場搶佔了很大一部分傳統市場份額。但現在，隨着電子商務的興起，這家百貨商店巨頭面臨着另一個重大競爭威脅。再加上高額債務、租賃負債和臃腫的成本結構。綜上所述，看起來艱難時期還將繼續。
The recent outlook looks bad, but a post-lockdown rebound could help the company’s performance in the short term. Yet, as a long-term opportunity, look elsewhere.
最近的前景看起來很糟糕，但停擺後的反彈可能會在短期內幫助該公司的業績。然而，作為一個長期機會，還是把目光投向別處吧。
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Granted, the situation may not be as dire as seen with J.C. Penney (OTCMKTS: JCPNQ ). However, it’s tough to see shares retracing past highs (above $20 per share) anytime soon. It’ll be a surprise if shares could bounce back to the double-digits realm (shares trade for around $6.60 today).
誠然，情況可能不會像我們看到的那樣可怕。J.C.Penney(OTCMKTS：JCPNQ)。然而，很難看到股價在短期內回升至高點(每股20美元以上)。如果股價能夠反彈到兩位數的水平(今天的股價約為6.60美元)，那將是一件令人驚訝的事情。
With this in mind, there are better ways to play a post-pandemic retail recovery.
考慮到這一點，有更好的方法來應對大流行後的零售業復甦。
Why There’s No Magic With Macy’s Stock
梅西百貨為何沒有魔力
It’s not fair to judge Macy’s stock on itsfirst-quarter results. With Q1 falling in the midst of the pandemic, it’s no surprise the company saw sales plummet to $3.03 billion from $5.5 billion in the year-ago quarter. Earnings plummeted from 44 cents per share in Q1 2019, to an adjusted loss of $2.03.
根據梅西百貨第一季度的業績來評判它的股票是不公平的。隨着第一季度在大流行期間的下滑，該公司的銷售額從去年同期的55億美元暴跌至30.3億美元也就不足為奇了。收益從2019年第一季度的每股44美分暴跌至調整後的虧損2.03美元。
These massive top and bottom-line declines were in line with analyst expectations. But, the latest bit of bad news isn’t the recent results. It’s the near-term guidance.
這些營收和營收的大幅下滑符合分析師的預期。但是，最新的一點壞消息並不是最近的結果。這是近期的指引。
Retail overall may be recovering, as seen with the18% boostin retail sales in the month of May. However, with this company, don’t expect similar results.
零售業總體上可能正在復甦，5月份零售額增長了18%。然而，對於這家公司，不要期待類似的結果。
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Last week, the companyreleased its current outlook. For the second half of 2020, it expects brick-and-mortar sales to be 35% below prior year results. The company’s e-commerce growth somewhat softens the blow. But, overall sales from July to December are set to fall between 20% and 25% from 2019 levels.
上週，該公司發佈了目前的展望。該公司預計，2020年下半年的實體銷售額將比上年同期下降35%。該公司的電子商務增長在一定程度上緩解了這一打擊。但是，7月至12月的整體銷量將比2019年的水平下降20%至25%。
So, when will Macy’s return to normal? That is to say, when will it retrace prior sales levels? The company expects that won’t happen until late 2021 or early 2022.
那麼，梅西百貨什麼時候能恢復正常呢？也就是説，它什麼時候會回到以前的銷售水平？該公司預計，這要到2021年末或2022年初才會發生。
Simply put, forget about the weak long-term prospects (more below) for this legacy retailer. Even a short-term rebound is out of the question.
簡單地説，忘掉這家傳統零售商疲軟的長期前景(更多信息如下)。即使是短期反彈也是不可能的。
With high fixed costs and overhead, a big sales drop doesn’t bode well for earnings in the upcoming quarters. And with the company’s troubles continuing to accelerate, it remains possible a “game over” scenario could play out in the years to come.
由於固定成本和管理費用很高，銷售額的大幅下降對未來幾個季度的收益來説不是好兆頭。隨着該公司的麻煩不斷加速，未來幾年仍有可能出現“遊戲結束”的情況。
Things Look Even Bleaker Long Term
從長遠來看，情況看起來更加黯淡
If you bought Macy’s stock at the height of the pandemic, you probably had a winning trade. Even after the aforementioned bad news, shares are up more than 56% from their lows. Yet, there’s likely no more upside left on the table.
如果你在疫情最嚴重的時候買入梅西百貨的股票，你很可能會有一筆成功的交易。即使在上述壞消息傳出後，股價仍較低點上漲了56%以上。然而，可能已經沒有更多的上行空間了。
Why? If you thought the short-term prospects for Macy’s look bad, consider the long-term prospects. In short, the company’s business model is not sustainable. Firstly, its stores are too big. Its largely mall-based locations were built for another era, before big-box stores and e-commerce started to dominate retail.
為什麼？如果你認為梅西百貨的短期前景看起來很糟糕，那就考慮一下長期前景。簡而言之，該公司的商業模式是不可持續的。首先，它的門店太大了。它主要以購物中心為基礎的門店是為另一個時代建造的，在大型商店和電子商務開始主導零售業之前。
Secondly, its cost structure doesn’t work in today’s retail landscape. It needs much higher levels of sales to cover its existing overhead. Without it, expect losses to continue. Thirdly, the company is saddled with an excess of long-term obligations.
其次，它的成本結構在今天的零售業格局中行不通。它需要更高水平的銷售額來彌補現有的管理費用。如果沒有它，預計虧損將繼續下去。第三，該公司揹負着過多的長期債務。
Outstandinglong-term debt totals $5 billion. Long-term lease liabilities add up to another $3 billion in obligations. For comparison, Macy’s stock only has a market capitalization of $2.1 billion.
未償還的長期債務總額為50億美元。長期租賃負債加起來又增加了30億美元的債務。相比之下，梅西百貨的市值只有21億美元。
Granted, you can point to itslarge real estate portfolio, and claim the company has sufficient “margin of safety.” Yet, this illiquid portfolio of mall anchors and downtown properties may be less of a lifeline than you think. Especially with the pandemicdepressing commercial real estate demand.
誠然，你可以指着它龐大的房地產投資組合，聲稱該公司有足夠的“安全邊際”。然而，這種缺乏流動性的商場主播和市中心物業組合可能並不像你想象的那樣是一條生命線。尤其是在商業地產需求低迷的情況下。
Remember, J.C. Penney and Sears (OTCMKTS: SHLDQ ), both owned significant amounts of retail real estate. But that wasn’t enough to keep either one out of Chapter 11.
記住，J.C.Penney和西爾斯(OTCMKTS：SHLDQ)，兩人都擁有大量的零售房地產。但這還不足以將其中任何一個排除在破產法第11章之外。
The Bottom Line: Avoid Macy’s Stock
底線：避開梅西百貨
Sure, not all brick-and-mortar retail is struggling. Names like Best Buy (NYSE: BBY )will continue to thriveno matter what lies ahead. But for retail dinosaurs like Macy’s? It’s a bleaker picture. That’s true both in the short term, and the long term.
當然，並不是所有的實體零售業都在苦苦掙扎。名稱類似於百思買紐約證券交易所代碼：BBY)將繼續蓬勃發展，無論前方是什麼。但對於梅西百貨這樣的零售恐龍來説呢？這是一幅更加黯淡的圖景。無論是從短期還是從長期來看，這都是正確的。
With sales not expected to bounce back until more than a year from now, expect losses to continue. And, saddled with a bloated cost structure and large long-term liabilities, the company may not recover.
由於銷售額預計要到一年多後才會反彈，預計虧損將繼續下去。而且，由於揹負着臃腫的成本結構和鉅額的長期債務，該公司可能無法復甦。
That’s not to say Macy’s is the next J. C. Penney. But, Macy’s stock is by no means a great long-term investment. Look elsewhere for opportunity, and avoid M shares completely.
這並不是説梅西百貨就是下一個J.C.Penney。但是，梅西百貨的股票絕不是一項偉大的長期投資。到別處尋找機會，完全避開M股。
Matthew McCall left Wall Street toactually helpinvestors — by getting them into the world’s biggest, most revolutionary trends BEFORE anyone else.Click here to see what Matt has up his sleeve now. As of this writing, Matt did not hold a position in any of theaforementioned securities.
馬修·麥考爾(Matthew McCall)離開華爾街，實際上是為了幫助投資者--讓他們比任何人都更早地進入世界上最大、最具革命性的趨勢。單擊此處，看看馬特現在有什麼打算。在撰寫本文時，馬特並未持有上述任何證券的頭寸。
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The postMacy’s Stock Won’t Have a V-Shaped Recoveryappeared first onInvestorPlace.
梅西百貨(Macy‘s Stock)之後的股票不會有V字形的復甦首先出現在InvestorPlace上。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。