China Overseas Grand Oceans Group(00081.HK)Expect 2020 sales and earnings growth of around 30%
China Overseas Grand Oceans Group(00081.HK)Expect 2020 sales and earnings growth of around 30%
Expect earnings to grow 20% YoY in 1H20 despite high base ; likely beating market expectations given active delivery
儘管基數很高，預計 20 年上半年的盈利按年增長 20%；鑑於積極交付，可能超過市場預期
Strong top line to support earnings. China Overseas Grand Oceans Group (COGO) recorded abundant unbooked GFA of 8.32mn sqm at end-2019 (1.6x GFA sold in 2019), with GPM of 25–30%. We expect booked GPM to normalize at around 30% in 1H20 (down 5ppt YoY, but still better than peers), thus weighing on earnings. However, we also expect strong top line expansion of 30–40% YoY on active delivery to partly offset the negative effect.
強勁的頂線，以支持盈利。 中國海外 宏洋集團於 2019 年底錄得 832 萬平方米豐富的未預訂建築面積（2019 年售出 1.6 倍建築面積），GPM 為 25-30%。我們預計預訂的 GPM 在上半年的 30% 左右正常化（同比下降 5 百分比，但仍比同行好），從而對收益加重。然而，我們亦預期主動交易將強勁的頂線擴張，按年增長 30 至 40%，以部分抵銷負面影響。
Resuming ambitious land banking; expanding balance sheet. GFA acquired was 2.2x GFA sold in 5M20, well above the rate over 2018– 2019 (around 1.2x). New land parcels are concentrated in strong tier-3 cities with decent attributable portion of 92%. We estimate that such parcels will generate an average GPM exceeding 25%, given that around 20–30% of the acquisitions were from non-public sources. Thus, we expect net gearing increase in 1H20 and 2020, but it should remain well below 60% (vs. 16% in 2019).
恢復雄心勃勃的土地銀行；擴大資產負債表。收購樓面面積於 5 平方米出售 2.2 倍，遠高於 2018 年至 2019 年（約 1.2 倍）。新的地塊集中在強勁的三級城市，應佔比例為 92%。我們估計，這些包裹的平均 GPM 將超過 25％，因為大約 20-30％ 的收購是來自非公共來源的。因此，我們預計 20 年上半年和 2020 年的淨資產負債增長，但它應該遠低於 60％（相對於 2019 年的 16％）。
Trends to watch
觀看趨勢
Expect sales to rise of 30% YoY in 2020 to Rmb70bn. Thanks to active land banking and new starts YTD, we expect COGO to expand saleable resources to Rmb130bn (from Rmb110bn), an increase of 39% vs full year 2019. We estimate that sales will rise 4% YoY in 1H20 to more than Rmb25bn (36% of our full-year estimate).
預計 2020 年銷售額按年上升 30% 至 70 億元人民幣。由於活躍的土地銀行業務和年初開始，我們預計中國海運將可銷售資源擴展至 130 億元（由人民幣 110 億元），較 2019 年全年增長 39%。我們估計，上半年銷售額將按年上升 4% 至超過 250 億元人民幣（佔我們全年估計的 36%）。
Expect earnings to grow about 30% YoY in 2020 to Rmb4.2bn. In addition to the aforementioned unbooked sales, we expect sales in 2020 to be sufficient to boost earnings. Moreover, we expect sales GPM to sustain at 25–30%, as the ASP YTD contract sales have risen 7% YTD, lending extra support to bottom line.
預計 2020 年盈利按年增長約 30% 至 42 億元人民幣。除了上述未預訂的銷售額外，我們預計 2020 年的銷售額將足以提高收益。此外，我們預計銷售 GPM 將維持在 25 — 30％，因為 ASP 年迄今為止的合同銷售額增長了 7％，為底線提供了額外的支持。
Valuation and recommendation
估值及推薦
We maintain our earnings forecasts and OUTPERFORM rating. We raise our TP 9% to HK$6.21 (4.5x 2020e P/E, 43% NAV discount) offering 29% upside on improved market sentiment. COGO is trading at 3.5x 2020e P/E and 56% NAV discount. We expect the firm to hold an analyst briefing in August following the announcement of interim results, further improving transparency, and enhancing investor expectations and confidence.
我們維持我們的盈利預測和「表現超市」評級。我們將目標價上調 9% 至 6.21 港元（每年 4.5x 市盈率，43% 資產淨值折扣），因市場情緒改善而提升 29% 的上漲空間。COGO 的交易價格為每股市盈率 3.5 倍，以及 56% 的資產淨值折扣。我們預期公佈中期業績後，公司將於 8 月舉行分析師簡報會，進一步提高透明度，並提高投資者的期望和信心。
Risks
風險
Sales and earnings miss our expectations.
銷售和收益錯過了我們的期望。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。