Were Hedge Funds Right About Betting On Accenture Plc (ACN)?

对冲基金押注埃森哲(Accenture Plc)是对的吗?

2020/07/07 01:08  Insider Monkey

At the end of February we announced the arrival of the first US recession since 2009 and we predicted that the market will decline by at least 20% in (see why hell is coming). In these volatile markets we scrutinize hedge fund filings to get a reading on which direction each stock might be going. In this article, we will take a closer look at hedge fund sentiment towards Accenture Plc (NYSE:ACN) at the end of the first quarter and determine whether the smart money was really smart about this stock.

Is Accenture Plc (NYSE: ACN)a healthy stock for your portfolio? The best stock pickers were taking a bullish view. The number of long hedge fund positions moved up by 8 in recent months. Our calculations also showed that ACN isn't among the30 most popular stocks among hedge funds(click for Q1 rankings and see the video for a quick look at the top 5 stocks). Video: Watch our video about the top 5 most popular hedge fund stocks.

Why do we pay any attention at all to hedge fund sentiment? Our research has shown that a select group of hedge fund holdings outperformed the S&P 500 ETFs by 58 percentage points since March 2017 (see the details here). We were also able to identify in advance a select group of hedge fund holdings that'll significantly underperform the market. We have been tracking and sharing the list of these stocks since February 2017 and they lost 36% through May 18th. That's why we believe hedge fund sentiment is an extremely useful indicator that investors should pay attention to.

[caption id="attachment_340081" align="aligncenter" width="392"] Phill Gross of Adage Capital Management[/caption]

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At Insider Monkey we scour multiple sources to uncover the next great investment idea. There is a lot of volatility in the markets and this presents amazing investment opportunities from time to time. For example, this trader claims to deliver juiced up returns with one trade a week, so we are checking out his highest conviction idea . A second trader claims to score lucrative profits by utilizing a "weekend trading strategy", so we look into his strategy's picks . We read hedge fund investor letters and listen to stock pitches at hedge fund conferences. We recently recommended several stocks partly inspired by legendary Bill Miller's investor letter . Our best call in 2020 was shorting the market when the S&P 500 was trading at 3150 in February after realizing the coronavirus pandemic’s significance before most investors. Now we're going to take a gander at the recent hedge fund action surrounding Accenture Plc (NYSE:ACN).

How have hedgies been trading Accenture Plc (NYSE:ACN)?

At Q1's end, a total of 49 of the hedge funds tracked by Insider Monkey held long positions in this stock, a change of 20% from one quarter earlier. By comparison, 40 hedge funds held shares or bullish call options in ACN a year ago. With hedgies' sentiment swirling, there exists a few notable hedge fund managers who were boosting their stakes meaningfully (or already accumulated large positions).

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According to Insider Monkey's hedge fund database, AQR Capital Management, managed by Cliff Asness, holds the largest position in Accenture Plc (NYSE:ACN). AQR Capital Management has a $236.4 million position in the stock, comprising 0.4% of its 13F portfolio. The second most bullish fund manager is Rajiv Jain of GQG Partners, with a $177.6 million position; the fund has 1.2% of its 13F portfolio invested in the stock. Other hedge funds and institutional investors with similar optimism comprise Phill Gross and Robert Atchinson's Adage Capital Management, Kevin Oram and Peter Uddo'sPraesidium Investment Management Companyand Ken Griffin's Citadel Investment Group. In terms of the portfolio weights assigned to each position Praesidium Investment Management Company allocated the biggest weight to Accenture Plc (NYSE:ACN), around 8.41% of its 13F portfolio.Steel Canyon Capitalis also relatively very bullish on the stock, designating 6.19 percent of its 13F equity portfolio to ACN.

Now, some big names were leading the bulls' herd. Millennium Management, managed by Israel Englander, assembled the most valuable position in Accenture Plc (NYSE:ACN). Millennium Management had $21.4 million invested in the company at the end of the quarter. Benjamin A. Smith'sLaurion Capital Managementalso made a $16.7 million investment in the stock during the quarter. The other funds with new positions in the stock are Doug Gordon, Jon Hilsabeck and Don Jabro'sShellback Capital, Steve Cohen's Point72 Asset Management, and Ken Griffin's Citadel Investment Group.

Let's now review hedge fund activity in other stocks - not necessarily in the same industry as Accenture Plc (NYSE:ACN) but similarly valued. These stocks are Charter Communications, Inc. (NASDAQ:CHTR), International Business Machines Corp. (NYSE:IBM), Union Pacific Corporation (NYSE:UNP), and Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA). This group of stocks' market caps are closest to ACN's market cap.

[table] Ticker, No of HFs with positions, Total Value of HF Positions (x1000), Change in HF Position CHTR,104,9914920,39 IBM,41,902956,-9 UNP,63,3442520,-2 TSLA,61,2124859,10 Average,67.25,4096314,9.5 [/table]

View table hereif you experience formatting issues.

As you can see these stocks had an average of 67.25 hedge funds with bullish positions and the average amount invested in these stocks was $4096 million. That figure was $1003 million in ACN's case. Charter Communications, Inc. (NASDAQ:CHTR) is the most popular stock in this table. On the other hand International Business Machines Corp. (NYSE:IBM) is the least popular one with only 41 bullish hedge fund positions. Accenture Plc (NYSE:ACN) is not the least popular stock in this group but hedge fund interest is still below average. Our calculations showed thattop 10 most popular stocksamong hedge funds returned 41.4% in 2019 and outperformed the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) by 10.1 percentage points. These stocks gained 12.3% in 2020 through June 30th and still beat the market by 15.5 percentage points. A small number of hedge funds were also right about betting on ACN as the stock returned 32.1% during the second quarter and outperformed the market by an even larger margin.

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Disclosure: None. This article was originally published atInsider Monkey.

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2月底,我们宣布了自2009年以来的第一次美国经济衰退的到来,我们预测市场将在2月份至少下跌20%(参见为什么地狱即将到来)。在这些动荡的市场中,我们仔细审查对冲基金的备案文件,以了解每只股票可能走向的方向。在这篇文章中,我们将仔细观察对冲基金在第一季度末对埃森哲公司(纽约证券交易所股票代码:ACN)的情绪,并确定聪明的投资者是否真的对这只股票很聪明。

埃森哲公司(纽约证券交易所代码:ACN)对于您的投资组合来说是一只健康的股票吗?最好的选股人持看涨观点。近几个月来,对冲基金多头头寸的数量增加了8个。我们的计算还显示,ACN不在对冲基金最受欢迎的30只股票之列(点击查看Q1排名,查看视频快速浏览前5只股票)。视频:观看我们关于最受欢迎的5只对冲基金股票的视频。

我们为什么要关注对冲基金的情绪呢?我们的研究显示,自2017年3月以来,一批精选的对冲基金持股表现比标准普尔500指数ETF高出58个百分点(详见此处)。我们还能够提前确定一组精选的对冲基金持股,这些基金的表现将明显逊于市场。自2017年2月以来,我们一直在跟踪和分享这些股票的名单,截至5月18日,它们下跌了36%。这就是为什么我们认为对冲基金情绪是投资者应该关注的一个极其有用的指标。

[Caption id=“ATTACH_340081”ALIGN=“ALIGN CENTER”WIDTH=“392”]Adage资本管理公司的菲尔·格罗斯(Phill Gross)[/标题]

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在Insider Monkey,我们搜索多个来源,以发现下一个伟大的投资想法。市场波动性很大,这不时带来令人惊叹的投资机会。例如,这位交易员声称每周进行一次交易就能获得更高的回报,所以我们正在检查他的最高定罪想法。第二个交易者声称利用“周末交易策略”获得了丰厚的利润,所以我们研究了他的策略选择。我们读对冲基金投资者的信,听对冲基金会议上的股票推介。我们最近推荐了几只股票,部分是受到传奇人物比尔·米勒(Bill Miller)投资者信的启发。我们在2020年最好的决定是做空市场,当时标准普尔500指数在2月份的交易价格为3,150点,此前我们意识到冠状病毒大流行™在大多数投资者面前的重要性。现在我们来看看最近对冲基金围绕埃森哲公司(纽约证券交易所代码:ACN)的行动。

对冲基金如何交易埃森哲公司(纽约证券交易所代码:ACN)?

在第一季度末,Insider Monkey追踪的对冲基金中共有49家持有这只股票的多头头寸,比上一季度增加了20%。相比之下,一年前有40家对冲基金持有ACN的股票或看涨看涨期权。随着套期保值者情绪的波动,有几位著名的对冲基金经理正在大幅增持股份(或者已经积累了大量头寸)。

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根据Insider Monkey的对冲基金数据库,由Cliff Asness管理的AQR资本管理公司持有埃森哲公司(纽约证券交易所代码:ACN)的最大头寸。AQR Capital Management持有2.364亿美元的股票头寸,占其13F投资组合的0.4%。第二位最看涨的基金经理是GQG Partners的Rajiv Jain,他持有1.776亿美元的头寸;该基金13F投资组合中有1.2%投资于该股。其他持类似乐观态度的对冲基金和机构投资者包括菲尔·格罗斯(Phill Gross)和罗伯特·阿钦森(Robert Atchinson)的Adage Capital Management,凯文·奥拉姆(Kevin Oram)和彼得·乌多(Peter Uddo)的Praesidium Investment Management公司,以及肯·格里芬(Ken Griffin)的城堡投资集团就分配给每个头寸的投资组合权重而言,Praesidium Investment Management Company分配给埃森哲公司(纽约证券交易所代码:ACN)的权重最大,约占其13F投资组合的8.41%。钢谷资本也相对非常看好该股,将其13F股票投资组合的6.19%指定给ACN。

现在,一些大名鼎鼎的人在领导公牛群。由伊斯雷尔·英格兰德管理的千禧管理公司是埃森哲公司(纽约证券交易所代码:ACN)中最有价值的职位。截至季度末,千禧管理公司向该公司投资了2140万美元。本杰明·A·史密斯(Benjamin A.Smith)的劳里安资本管理公司(Laurion Capital Management)在本季度也对该股进行了1670万美元的投资。其他持有该股新头寸的基金包括道格·戈登(Doug Gordon)、乔恩·希尔萨贝克(Jon Hilsabeck)和唐·贾布罗(Don Jabro)的Shellback Capital,史蒂夫·科恩(Steve Cohen)的Point72 Asset Management,以及肯·格里芬(Ken Griffin)的城堡投资集团

现在让我们回顾一下其他股票的对冲基金活动-不一定与埃森哲公司(纽约证券交易所代码:ACN)在同一行业,但估值相似。这些股票是Charge Communications,Inc.(纳斯达克股票代码:CHTR),国际商业机器公司(International Business Machines Corp.)(纽约证券交易所代码:IBM)、联合太平洋公司(纽约证券交易所代码:UNP)和特斯拉公司。(纳斯达克股票代码:TSLA)。这组股票的市值最接近ACN的市值。

[表]股票代码,有位置的HF数量,HF位置的总值(X1000),HF位置的变化CHTR,104,9914920,39 IBM,41,902956,-9 UNP,63,3442520,-2 TSLA,61,2124859,10 Average,67.25,4096314,9.5[/TABLE]

如果您遇到格式问题,请查看此处的表格。

正如你所看到的,这些股票平均有67.25只持有看涨头寸的对冲基金,平均投资于这些股票的金额为4.096亿美元。在ACN的案例中,这个数字是1.03亿美元。查特通信公司纳斯达克股票代码:CHTR)是本表中最受欢迎的股票。另一方面,国际商业机器公司(International Business Machines Corp.)(纽约证券交易所代码:IBM)是最不受欢迎的,只有41个看涨对冲基金头寸。埃森哲公司(纽约证券交易所代码:ACN)不是这类股票中最不受欢迎的股票,但对冲基金的兴趣仍然低于平均水平。我们的计算显示,对冲基金中最受欢迎的前10只股票在2019年的回报率为41.4%,表现比标准普尔500指数交易所交易基金(SPY)高出10.1个百分点。截至6月30日,这些股票在2020年上涨了12.3%,但仍比大盘高出15.5个百分点。少数对冲基金对ACN的押注也是正确的,因为该股在第二季度的回报率为32.1%,表现优于大盘,幅度更大。

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披露:没有。本文最初发表在“内幕猴子”(Insider Monkey)杂志上。

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