Are BlackBerry Limited (TSE:BB) Investors Paying Above The Intrinsic Value?

黑莓有限公司(多伦多证券交易所代码:BB)的投资者支付的价格是否高于内在价值?

2020/07/05 12:32  Simply Wall St.

Does the July share price for BlackBerry Limited (TSE:BB) reflect what it's really worth? Today, we will estimate the stock's intrinsic value by projecting its future cash flows and then discounting them to today's value. We will take advantage of the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model for this purpose. Before you think you won't be able to understand it, just read on! It's actually much less complex than you'd imagine.

We would caution that there are many ways of valuing a company and, like the DCF, each technique has advantages and disadvantages in certain scenarios. Anyone interested in learning a bit more about intrinsic value should have a read of theSimply Wall St analysis model.

Check out our latest analysis for BlackBerry

Crunching the numbers

We use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of growth rates for the company's cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a lower growth phase. To begin with, we have to get estimates of the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, so we need to discount the sum of these future cash flows to arrive at a present value estimate:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)

Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = US$743m

We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 1.7%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 8.3%.

Terminal Value (TV) = FCF2030× (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = US$203m× (1 + 1.7%) ÷ (8.3%– 1.7%) = US$3.1b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV) = TV / (1 + r)10= US$3.1b÷ ( 1 + 8.3%)10= US$1.4b

The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is US$2.2b. To get the intrinsic value per share, we divide this by the total number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of CA$6.6, the company appears slightly overvalued at the time of writing. Valuations are imprecise instruments though, rather like a telescope - move a few degrees and end up in a different galaxy. Do keep this in mind.

The assumptions

We would point out that the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and of course the actual cash flows. If you don't agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at BlackBerry as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 8.3%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.098. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

Moving On:

Although the valuation of a company is important, it ideally won't be the sole piece of analysis you scrutinize for a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Instead the best use for a DCF model is to test certain assumptions and theories to see if they would lead to the company being undervalued or overvalued. For instance, if the terminal value growth rate is adjusted slightly, it can dramatically alter the overall result. Why is the intrinsic value lower than the current share price? For BlackBerry, we've compiled three essential factors you should look at:

Risks : For instance, we've identified 2 warning signs for BlackBerry that you should be aware of.

Management :Have insiders been ramping up their shares to take advantage of the market's sentiment for BB's future outlook? Check out ourmanagement and board analysiswith insights on CEO compensation and governance factors.

Other High Quality Alternatives : Do you like a good all-rounder? Exploreour interactive list of high quality stocksto get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!

PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the TSX every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks justsearch here.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, emaileditorial-team@simplywallst.com.

黑莓有限公司(东京证券交易所代码:BB)7月份的股价是否反映了它的真实价值?今天,我们将通过预测股票未来的现金流,然后将其折现为今天的价值来估计股票的内在价值。为此,我们将利用贴现现金流(DCF)模型。在你认为你无法理解它之前,先往下读吧!它实际上比你想象的要简单得多。

我们要提醒的是,评估一家公司的方法有很多种,与DCF一样,每种技术在某些情况下都有优缺点。任何对了解更多内在价值感兴趣的人都应该阅读一下Simply Wall ST分析模型。

查看我们对黑莓的最新分析

处理这些数字

我们使用的是所谓的两阶段模型,也就是说,公司的现金流有两个不同的成长期。一般来说,第一阶段是较高的生长阶段,第二阶段是较低的增长阶段。首先,我们必须估计未来十年的现金流。在可能的情况下,我们使用分析师的估计,但当这些估计不可用时,我们会根据上次估计或报告的价值来推断之前的自由现金流(FCF)。我们假设自由现金流萎缩的公司将减缓收缩速度,而自由现金流增长的公司将在这段时间内看到增长速度放缓。我们这样做是为了反映出,与后来几年相比,早年的增长往往会放缓得更多。

DCF完全是关于未来的一美元比现在的一美元价值更低的想法,所以我们需要对这些未来现金流的总和进行贴现,才能得出现值估计:

10年自由现金流(FCF)预测

(“Est”=简单地由华尔街估计的FCF增长率)

10年期现金流现值(PVCF)=7.43亿美元

现在我们需要计算终端价值,它说明了这十年之后的所有未来现金流。戈登增长公式用于计算未来年增长率等于1.7%的10年期公债收益率的5年均值的终端价值。我们以8.3%的权益成本将终端现金流贴现到今天的价值。

终端值(TV)=FCF2030×(1+g)?(r-g)=2.03亿美元×(1+1.7%)?(8.3%-1.7%)=31亿美元

终端价值现值(PVTV)=TV/(1+r)10=31亿美元?(1+8.3%)10=14亿美元

那么,总价值或权益价值就是未来现金流的现值之和,在这种情况下,现金流的现值为22亿美元。为了得到每股内在价值,我们将其除以总流通股数量。与目前6.6加元的股价相比,在撰写本文时,该公司的估值似乎略有高估。然而,估值是不精确的工具,更像是望远镜-移动几度就会到达不同的星系。一定要记住这一点。

假设

我们要指出,贴现现金流最重要的投入是贴现率,当然还有实际现金流。如果你不同意这些结果,你可以自己试一试计算,并玩弄这些假设。DCF也没有考虑一个行业可能的周期性,也没有考虑一家公司未来的资本要求,所以它没有给出一家公司潜在业绩的全貌。鉴于我们将黑莓视为潜在股东,股权成本被用作贴现率,而不是占债务的资本成本(或加权平均资本成本,WACC)。在这个计算中,我们使用了8.3%,这是基于杠杆率为1.098的测试值。贝塔系数是衡量一只股票相对于整个市场的波动性的指标。我们的Beta来自全球可比公司的行业平均Beta,强制限制在0.8到2.0之间,这是一个稳定的业务的合理范围。

下一步:

虽然一家公司的估值很重要,但理想情况下,它不会是你为一家公司仔细检查的唯一一项分析。贴现现金流模型并不是一个完美的股票估值工具。相反,贴现现金流模型的最佳用途是测试某些假设和理论,看看它们是否会导致公司被低估或高估。例如,如果终端价值增长率稍有调整,可能会极大地改变整体结果。为什么内在价值低于当前股价?对于黑莓,我们列出了你应该关注的三个基本因素:

风险:例如,我们已经为黑莓确定了两个您应该注意的警告信号。

管理层:内部人士是否一直在增持股票,以利用市场对BB未来前景的情绪?查看我们的管理和董事会分析,了解对CEO薪酬和治理因素的见解。

其他高质量的选择:你喜欢好的全能型吗?浏览我们的高质量库存互动列表,了解您可能还会错过什么!

PS.Simply Wall ST应用程序每天对多伦多证交所的每只股票进行现金流贴现估值。如果你想找到其他股票的计算方法,只要在这里搜索就可以了。

简而言之,这篇由华尔街撰写的文章本质上是概括性的。它不构成买卖任何股票的建议,也没有考虑你的目标或你的财务状况。我们的目标是为您带来由基本面数据驱动的长期重点分析。请注意,我们的分析可能不会将最新的对价格敏感的公司公告或定性材料考虑在内。简单地说,华尔街在提到的任何股票中都没有头寸。

对这篇文章有什么反馈吗?担心内容吗?请直接与我们联系。或者,通过电子邮件发送电子邮件至edit-team@simplywallst.com。

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