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LIVE MARKETS-Streaming saved the video star, but not from COVID-19!

LIVE MARKETS-Streaming saved the video star, but not from COVID-19!

直播市場-流媒體拯救了這位視頻明星,但並沒有從新冠肺炎手中拯救出來!
路透社 ·  2020/06/29 20:19

Welcome to the home for real-time coverage of European equity markets brought to you by Reuters stocks reporters. You can share your thoughts Joice Alves (joice.alves@thomsonreuters.com) and Julien Ponthus (julien.ponthus@thomsonreuters.com) in London and Stefano Rebaudo (stefano.rebaudo@thomsonreuters.com) in Milan.
  
  
  
   STREAMING SAVED THE VIDEO STAR, BUT NOT FROM COVID-19! (1208 GMT)
   Interesting note from Citi which goes deep into the prospects of the music industry and streaming in the age of COVID-19.
   While streaming is widely credited for saving an industry crippled by illegal downloads and recently helping labels back into growth, its potential is not unlimited and no magic cure against the pandemic.
   One of Citi's key takeaway for the industry is that "if streaming subscription growth does slow, we expect the labels to extract more from distributors".
   Another argument in favour of labels versus distributors such as Spotify if growth slows down is that "at prevailing multiples, music labels are less dependent on growth to justify current valuations".
   Looking into the Spotify and Warner stocks, the analysts come to the conclusion that there's not that much upside and give them a "neutral" rating given the premium they currently enjoy.
   "As such, we don’t find either stock particularly compelling at prevailing multiples.
   More compelling are Sony, Vivendi and Tencent Music which are rated 'buy'."
   Nothing much to do with stocks valuation, but here's an interesting chart from Citi research showing how physical music sales plummeted in the last 45 years and how vinyls are making a steady comeback:
  
   (Julien Ponthus and Sujata Rao)
   *****
  
  
   SIGNS OF LIFE FROM EZ EMPLOYMENT, INFLATION? (1127 GMT)
   June eurozone economic sentiment data showed the expected 'mechanical reaction' to the easing in lockdowns, staging the largest ever recorded rise. But this is not the point.
   Eurozone industry expectations about demand surged to levels seen in the months before the crisis, but this didn't happened in services, which remained below those levels, a ING research note says.
   Employment expectations improved in both industry and services recently, which means that employment could rise from late fall, along with selling price's, it adds.
   These are good signs of a possible recovery, but they don't say how much lasting damage has been done from the virus, according to ING.
   Oxford Economic on its part notes that "sentiment remains very subdued compared to before the pandemic, supporting our expectations of a record GDP contraction in Q2".
   This initial sharp bounce back "will be followed by a much slower return to pre-pandemic levels," it adds.
   Stocks keep hovering around the floating line after the data, supported by the fact that Europe has been doing better in controlling the virus, while a surge in cases in the U.S. worries because of its impact on the global economy.
   (Stefano Rebaudo)
   *****
  
  
  
   CREDIT DYNAMICS STILL STRONG, BUT WITH EUROPE DIVIDE (0954 GMT)
   Credit dynamics are more important than usual with the Covid-19 impact in place as they tell us if the economy is on the right track to a recovery and if there is a risk of a credit crunch.
   Banks have huge amounts of liquidity at hands due to ECB and government measures, which are supposed to go to corporations and families.
   We have good and bad signs from data collected by UBS.
   Credit to non-financial corporations grew 7.3% year on year from 6.6% in April, "reflecting strong demand for emergency bridge loans supported by the government", while credit to households stayed unchanged at 3% in May, a UBS research note says.
   The Europe divide is in place also in this matter. Credit growth was strong in France, up 8%, and in line with the Eurozone average of 5.3% in Austria, Finland, Germany and Ireland. While it underperformed in Spain, up 3.7% and Italy up 1.8%.
   "We would regard a sharp widening in divergences between country-specific credit trends as a warning sign," UBS says.
  
  
   (Stefano Rebaudo)
   *****
  
  
  
   OPENING SNAPSHOT: A SWIFT TURNAROUND! (0803 GMT)
   Everything seemed to be pointing to stocks losing ground at the open this mornings but the trend swiftly became positive soon after the bell.
   The STOXX 600 regained 0.2%, which was much better than what the futures were suggesting earlier this morning, falling up to 0.8%.
   At the time of writing, the bounce-back faded and the pan-European index is back just very slightly in the red.
   While there's no clear trigger for the switch in mood, there is a clear feeling that European stocks have the upper hand in the global stock market arena and that's helping at the open.
   "The key is that Europe keeps reopenings safely in light of the low levels of virus transmission resurgence and far more manageable new cases", Stephen Innes, chief global market strategist at AxiCorp just told us.
   "Investors sill have the reopening fever and money to spend, so they may now view EU stocks a more attractive investment in that regard", he added.
   We also asked Michael Hewson at CMC Markets what was his take on the turnaround at the open and he argued that "some of the concerns about a second wave are premature".
   Among individual stocks there's a lot of action around Wirecard which is up...160%! Traders reporting the shares are rising on a Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung report that private equity and Worldline may be interested in buying parts of the company.
   Another big mover is AMS up close to 7% with the reported EU go-ahead for the Osram deal boostng the shares.
   Speaking of European shares having the upper hand, check out this story:
   Investors warm to Europe as Biden lead, virus fears rattle Wall St
   Anyhow, here's your opening snapshot:
  
  
   (Julien Ponthus and Stefano Rebaudo)
   *****


  
  
   ON THE RADAR: AIRBUS, WIRECARD AND BUSINESS SENTIMENT (0645 GMT)
   While there's not that much corporate news this morning, traders looking for market action can turn to Wirecard, which is up 30% in pre-market after the German company said on Saturday it would proceed with business activities after filing for insolvency.
   That, of course, ain't much of a bounce back as the stock has lost about 99% of its value in less than two months!
   Another stock under focus this morning is Airbus, losing some ground after its Chief Executive said he assumed a 40% drop in production over the next two years.
   Traders also see AMS rising as much as 10% at the open after a Reuters exclusive on the European Union giving its go-ahead to its acquisition of German lighting group Osram.
   Talking about M&A, Spain's Iberdrola raised its bid for Australian wind and solar firm Infigen Energy after Philippine conglomerate Ayala Corp hiked its offer.
   Also, International Consolidated Airlines Group is reviewing its planned 1 billion euro acquisition of Air Europa because of the harsh economic climate caused by COVID-19, the CEO of IAG-owned Iberia was quoted on Sunday as saying.
   In the beaten down euro zone banking sector, a German newspaper reported on Saturday that the board of Commerzbank's board would likely approve more branch closures and job cuts at an extraordinary meeting next week.
   In Italy, the board of Monte dei Paschi di Siena is expected to meet on Monday to approve a plan to reduce its burden of bad loans.
   Some macro could also spice things up a tad with notably the Euro Zone Economic Sentiment for June at 0900 GMT:
    
   (Julien Ponthus and Stefano Rebaudo)
   *****  
  
  
  
  
   MORNING CALL: GRIM VIRUS MILESTONES DENT SENTIMENT (0535 GMT)
   There's clearly a risk-off feeling across markets as the week begins with two gloomy milestones: the death toll from COVID-19 surpassed half a million people and reported cases went through the 10 million mark.
   Asian stocks took losses of about 1% to 2% on average with ongoing fears that the global pandemic could take a deeper toll on economic growth than expected.
   European futures are down between 0.3% to 0.6% and their Wall Street peers are also trading slightly in the red.
   The downbeat sentiment is also showing through oil prices which have slid for a second straight session.
   (Julien Ponthus)
   *****
    
  
    
  
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歡迎您收看路透社股票記者為您帶來的歐洲股市實時報道。你可以在倫敦分享你的想法喬伊斯·阿爾維斯(joice.alves@thomsonreurs.com)和朱利安·龐薩斯(julien.ponrus@thomsonreurs.com),在米蘭分享你的想法Stefano Rebaudo(stefano.rebaudo@thomsonreurs.com)。流媒體救了這位視頻明星,但不是從新冠肺炎!(格林威治時間1208GMT)來自花旗的有趣筆記,深入探討了新冠肺炎時代音樂產業和流媒體的前景。雖然流媒體被廣泛認為拯救了這個因非法下載而陷入癱瘓的行業,最近還幫助唱片公司恢復了增長,但它的潛力並不是無限的,也不是對抗這種流行病的靈丹妙藥。花旗對該行業的一個重要啟示是,“如果流媒體訂閲增長確實放緩,我們預計唱片公司將從分銷商那裏榨取更多”。如果增長放緩,支持唱片公司而不是Spotify等發行商的另一個理由是,“以普遍的倍數計算,唱片公司不那麼依賴增長來證明當前的估值是合理的”。看看Spotify和華納的股票,分析師們得出的結論是,它們沒有太大的上行空間,考慮到它們目前享有的溢價,給出了“中性”的評級。“因此,我們認為這兩隻股票的市盈率都不是特別令人信服的。更具吸引力的是索尼、威望迪(Viveni)和騰訊音樂(Tencent Music),它們的評級都是‘買入’。“這與股票估值沒有太大關係,但以下是花旗研究公司(Citi Research)的一張有趣的圖表,它顯示了實體音樂銷量在過去45年裏是如何暴跌的,以及乙烯基音樂是如何穩步捲土重來的:(朱利安·龐薩斯和Sujata Rao) *****EZ就業,通脹的生命跡象?(格林威治時間1127)6月份的歐元區經濟信心數據顯示,對放鬆封鎖的預期“機械反應”,上演了有記錄以來最大的漲幅。但這不是重點。荷蘭國際集團(ING)的一份研究報告稱,歐元區行業對需求的預期飆升至危機前幾個月的水平,但服務業並未出現這種情況,服務業的需求仍低於這些水平。報告補充稱,最近工業和服務業的就業預期都有所改善,這意味着就業可能會從深秋開始上升,同時銷售價格也會上升。根據荷蘭國際集團的説法,這些都是可能恢復的良好跡象,但他們沒有説明病毒已經造成了多大的持久損害。牛津經濟研究院(Oxford Economic)指出,“與疫情爆發前相比,市場情緒仍然非常低迷,這支持了我們對第二季度GDP創紀錄收縮的預期。”報告補充説,最初的大幅反彈“之後將以更慢的速度恢復到大流行前的水平”。數據公佈後,股市一直徘徊在浮動線附近,這得益於歐洲在控制病毒方面做得更好,而美國病例激增令人擔憂,因為它對全球經濟造成了影響。(Stefano Rebaudo) *****信貸動態仍然強勁,但隨着歐洲的分化(格林威治時間0954)有了“新冠肺炎”的影響,信貸動態比往常更重要,因為它們告訴我們,經濟是否走上了復甦的正確軌道,是否存在信貸緊縮的風險。由於歐洲央行和政府的措施,銀行手頭有大量流動性,這些措施本應流向企業和家庭。從瑞銀(UBS)收集的數據中,我們有好的跡象,也有壞的跡象。瑞銀(UBS)的一份研究報告稱,對非金融企業的信貸同比增長7.3%,高於4月份的6.6%,“反映出對政府支持的緊急過橋貸款的強勁需求”,而對家庭的信貸在5月份保持在3%不變。在這個問題上,歐洲的分歧也是存在的。法國信貸增長強勁,增長8%,與歐元區奧地利、芬蘭、德國和愛爾蘭5.3%的平均水平一致。而在西班牙表現不佳,上漲3.7%,意大利上漲1.8%。瑞銀(UBS)表示:“我們將把各國信貸趨勢之間的差距急劇擴大視為一個警告信號。”(Stefano Rebaudo) *****開場快照:SWIFT扭虧為盈!(格林威治時間0803)今天上午開盤時,一切似乎都指向股市下跌,但開盤後不久,趨勢迅速轉為積極。STOXX 600指數回升0.2%,遠好於今早早些時候期貨的預測,最高跌至0.8%。在撰寫本文時,反彈勢頭已經消退,泛歐指數僅略微出現了虧損。雖然沒有明確的觸發情緒轉變的因素,但有一種明顯的感覺是,歐洲股市在全球股市舞臺上佔據了上風,這在開盤時起到了幫助作用。AxiCorp首席全球市場策略師斯蒂芬·因尼斯(Stephen Innes)剛剛告訴我們:“關鍵是,鑑於病毒傳播復甦的水平較低,而且新病例要容易得多,歐洲應該安全地保持重新開放。”他補充稱:“投資者仍將有重新開放的熱情和資金,因此他們現在可能認為歐盟股票在這方面是一種更具吸引力的投資。”我們還詢問了CMC Markets的邁克爾·休森(Michael Hewson),他對股市開盤時的好轉有何看法,他辯稱,“對第二波復甦的一些擔憂為時過早”。在個股中,圍繞Wirecard的行情很多,上漲了……160%!交易員報告稱,由於法蘭克福匯報(Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung)報道稱,私人股本和Worldline可能有興趣收購該公司的部分股份,該公司股價正在上漲。另一個大的動向是AMS股價上漲近7%,據報道,歐盟對歐司朗交易的批准提振了AMS的股價。説到歐洲股市佔據上風,看看這篇報道:拜登領跑歐洲,投資者對歐洲熱情高漲,病毒擔憂擾亂華爾街無論如何,以下是你的開場快照:(朱利安·龐薩斯和斯特凡諾·雷鮑多) ***** 雷達上:空客,Wirecard和商業情緒(格林威治時間0645)雖然今早沒有太多的企業新聞,但尋求市場行動的交易員可以求助於Wirecard,在這家德國公司周六表示將在申請破產後繼續商業活動後,Wirecard在開盤前上漲了30%。當然,這算不上什麼反彈,因為該股在不到兩個月的時間裏損失了約99%的價值!今早關注的另一隻股票是空中客車(Airbus),在其首席執行官表示他預計未來兩年產量將下降40%後,空客股價有所下跌。交易員還預計,在路透社(Reuters)對歐盟(European Union)的獨家報道批准其收購德國照明集團歐司朗(Osram)後,AMS開盤時漲幅高達10%。談到併購,西班牙Iberdrola提高了對澳大利亞風能和太陽能公司Infigen Energy的報價,此前菲律賓企業集團Ayala Corp提高了報價。此外,週日援引國際聯合航空集團旗下伊比利亞航空公司首席執行官的話説,由於新冠肺炎造成的嚴峻經濟氣候,國際聯合航空集團正在審查其以10億歐元收購歐羅巴航空公司的計劃。在遭受重創的歐元區銀行業,一家德國報紙週六報道稱,德國商業銀行董事會可能會在下週的特別會議上批准更多分行關閉和裁員。在意大利,Monte dei Paschi di Siena董事會預計將於週一開會,批准一項減輕不良貸款負擔的計劃。一些宏觀因素也可能在格林威治時間0900時公佈6月份的歐元區經濟人氣,從而讓事情變得有點情趣:(朱利安·龐薩斯和斯特凡諾·雷鮑多) ***** 晨間電話:嚴峻的病毒里程碑打擊情緒(格林威治時間0535)隨着本週開始有兩個令人沮喪的里程碑,整個市場顯然都有一種避險情緒:新冠肺炎造成的死亡人數超過50萬人,報告的病例超過1000萬人。亞洲股市平均下跌約1%至2%,人們持續擔心全球疫情可能對經濟增長造成比預期更嚴重的影響。歐洲期貨下跌0.3%至0.6%,華爾街同行也略有虧損。悲觀情緒也通過油價表現出來,油價已連續第二個交易日下滑。(朱利安·龐薩斯) *****/>sqdfSqdf學分反作用Sqdf ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。


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