Boeing and Airbus Stock Is Downgraded. Don't Count on a Quick Vaccine, Analyst Says. -- Barrons.com
Boeing and Airbus Stock Is Downgraded. Don't Count on a Quick Vaccine, Analyst Says. -- Barrons.com
DJ Boeing and Airbus Stock Is Downgraded. Don't Count on a Quick Vaccine, Analyst Says. -- Barrons.com
DJ 波音和空中客车股票被降级。分析师说，不要指望快速接种疫苗。— Barrons.com
By Al Root
作者：Al Root
Bernstein analyst Douglas Harned downgraded Boeing and Airbus, the only two makers of large jets, because a solution to the Covid-19 pandemic isn't coming soon enough.
伯恩斯坦分析师道格拉斯·哈内德下调了仅有的两家大型飞机制造商波音和空中客车的评级，因为Covid-19疫情的解决方案还不够快。
"We have seen potential for a recovery from Covid-19 as dependent on a medical solution to bring global travel levels back to normal," wrote Harned in a Friday research report. "Based on our assessment of the traffic outlook, combined with analyses by Bernstein's health care team, we believe the solution is farther out."
哈内德在周五的一份研究报告中写道：“我们已经看到，从Covid-19中恢复的潜力取决于医疗解决方案来使全球旅行水平恢复正常。”“根据我们对交通前景的评估，再加上伯恩斯坦医疗团队的分析，我们认为解决方案还有很长的路要走。”
His ratings on both stocks went from the equivalent of Buy to Hold. His Boeing (ticker: BA) stock-price target went from $180 to $165, while he cut his call on Airbus (AIR.France) from about EUR73 ($80) to EUR69.
他对这两只股票的评级从相当于买入的评级变为持有。他的波音（股票代码：BA）的目标股价从180美元升至165美元，而他将对空中客车公司（Air.France）的看涨期权从大约 EUR73（80美元）下调至 EUR69。
It's a downbeat take. Aerospace investors had been feeling more optimistic lately. Boeing shares, for instance, are up more than 20% over the past month.
这是一种悲观的看法。航空航天投资者最近一直感到更加乐观。例如，波音的股价在过去一个月中上涨了20％以上。
More people on planes is one reason for increased optimism. Air travel in the U.S. over the past seven days is down about 80% year over year. A month ago, the comparable decline was about 90%. It isn't a huge improvement, but Wall Street likes to focus on the rate of change.
越来越多的人上飞机是乐观情绪增加的原因之一。过去七天，美国的航空旅行同比下降了约80％。一个月前，可比下降幅度约为90％。这并不是一个很大的进步，但华尔街喜欢关注变化率。
A viable coronavirus vaccine, potentially bringing back air travel faster than currently projected, has always been seen as a big deal for airlines and jet manufacturers. Yet Harned took a cautious stand on that.
对于航空公司和飞机制造商来说，一种可行的冠状病毒疫苗有可能使航空旅行恢复得比目前的预期更快，一直被视为一件大事。然而，哈内德对此采取了谨慎的立场。
"While progress continues on vaccines, we do not expect this to be the complete solution," wrote the analyst. "There are many vaccines in development and we are confident that successful ones will emerge in 2021. But, it is not yet known what the efficacy of the early vaccines will be or how broad a portion of the global flying population will be vaccinated over time."
分析师写道：“尽管疫苗继续取得进展，但我们预计这不是完整的解决方案。”“有许多疫苗正在开发中，我们相信成功的疫苗将在2021年问世。但是，尚不清楚早期疫苗的功效如何，也不知道随着时间的推移，全球飞行人口中将有多广泛地接种疫苗。”
In the absence of a safe and effective vaccine developed soon, Harned predicts air travel would return to 2019 levels by 2023. That means airlines will require fewer deliveries from jet makers to meet reduced demand.
在没有很快开发出安全有效的疫苗的情况下，哈内德预测，到2023年，航空旅行将恢复到2019年的水平。这意味着航空公司将减少飞机制造商的交付量以满足减少的需求。
As the number of reported Covid-19 infections in the U.S. has increased in recent days, some of the juice has come out of the commercial aerospace sector. Boeing stock is down about 9% over the past week. Airline shares have fallen about 10%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 are off by 1.3% and 1% over the same span, respectively.
随着最近几天美国报告的Covid-19感染人数的增加，一些果汁来自商业航空航天领域。波音股价在过去一周下跌了约9％。航空公司股价下跌了约10％。道琼斯工业平均指数和标准普尔500指数在同一时间段内分别下跌了1.3％和1％。
Even though stocks have bounced back from their March lows, commercial aerospace has been devastated by the pandemic. Boeing and Airbus stocks remain down about 46% and 57% year to date, respectively. The aerospace supplier stocks Barron's tracks are down about 40% on average. And airline shares are down roughly 48%. The declines have wiped out hundreds of billions of market value.
尽管股市已从3月份的低点反弹，但商业航空已经受到疫情的破坏。迄今为止，波音和空中客车的股票仍分别下跌了约46％和57％。这家航空供应商的股票巴伦的股票平均下跌了约40％。航空公司股价下跌了约48％。下跌使数千亿美元的市值化为乌有。
The battle airlines are waging with the virus is far from over. In fact, Italy is banning carry-on luggage, in a move reported on by the Italian newspaper Corriere Della Sera Thursday. The Italian National Civil Aviation Authority will ban the use of overhead bins for health reasons starting Friday.
航空公司与病毒的战斗还远未结束。实际上，意大利报纸《Corriere Della Sera》周四报道了此举，意大利禁止随身行李。出于健康原因，意大利国家民航局将从周五开始禁止使用高架垃圾箱。
If other countries do the same, it would be another potential headwind for airline stocks. Checking bags adds time and irritation for travelers, and U.S. airlines also generate billions of dollars from checked-baggage fees. A requirement to check bags might make it tougher to collect that revenue.
如果其他国家也这样做，那将是航空股的又一个潜在阻力。托运行李会增加旅客的时间和烦恼，美国航空公司还从托运行李费中获得数十亿美元的收入。要求托运行李可能会使收取这笔收入变得更加困难。
Italy was hit hard by the pandemic in March and April. More recently, the number of new cases diagnosed daily in Italy is in the hundreds, down from thousands. About 240,000 Italian cases have been reported and more than 34,000 people have died in the country. Globally, reported cases are approaching 10 million and deaths are nearing 500,000.
意大利在三月和四月遭受了大流行的沉重打击。最近，意大利每天诊断的新病例数为数百例，低于数千例。意大利报告了约24万例病例，该国已有超过34,000人死亡。在全球范围内，报告的病例接近1000万，死亡人数接近50万。
The U.S. reported more than 39,000 new infections Thursday, according to the Covid Tracking Project. That's close to a new daily high. Testing is up, but positive results have averaged 6.1% of the total over the past week, up from about 5.4% a month ago.
根据Covid追踪项目的数据，美国周四报告了超过39,000例新感染病例。这接近每日新高。测试已经结束，但过去一周的阳性结果平均占总数的6.1％，高于一个月前的约5.4％。
Write to Al Root at allen.root@dowjones.com
通过 allen.root@dowjones.com 写信给 Al Root
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
（END）道琼斯通讯社
June 26, 2020 09:49 ET (13:49 GMT)
美国东部时间 2020 年 6 月 26 日 09:49（格林尼治标准时间 13:49）
Copyright (c) 2020 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
版权所有 (c) 2020 道琼斯公司
译文内容由第三方软件翻译。