Boeing and Airbus Stock Is Downgraded. Don't Count on a Quick Vaccine, Analyst Says. -- Barrons.com

波音和空客股票评级被下调。分析师说,不要指望快速疫苗。--Barrons.com

2020/06/26 21:49  Dow Jones Newswires

DJ Boeing and Airbus Stock Is Downgraded. Don't Count on a Quick Vaccine, Analyst Says. -- Barrons.com


By Al Root

Bernstein analyst Douglas Harned downgraded Boeing and Airbus, the only two makers of large jets, because a solution to the Covid-19 pandemic isn't coming soon enough.

"We have seen potential for a recovery from Covid-19 as dependent on a medical solution to bring global travel levels back to normal," wrote Harned in a Friday research report. "Based on our assessment of the traffic outlook, combined with analyses by Bernstein's health care team, we believe the solution is farther out."

His ratings on both stocks went from the equivalent of Buy to Hold. His Boeing (ticker: BA) stock-price target went from $180 to $165, while he cut his call on Airbus (AIR.France) from about EUR73 ($80) to EUR69.

It's a downbeat take. Aerospace investors had been feeling more optimistic lately. Boeing shares, for instance, are up more than 20% over the past month.

More people on planes is one reason for increased optimism. Air travel in the U.S. over the past seven days is down about 80% year over year. A month ago, the comparable decline was about 90%. It isn't a huge improvement, but Wall Street likes to focus on the rate of change.

A viable coronavirus vaccine, potentially bringing back air travel faster than currently projected, has always been seen as a big deal for airlines and jet manufacturers. Yet Harned took a cautious stand on that.

"While progress continues on vaccines, we do not expect this to be the complete solution," wrote the analyst. "There are many vaccines in development and we are confident that successful ones will emerge in 2021. But, it is not yet known what the efficacy of the early vaccines will be or how broad a portion of the global flying population will be vaccinated over time."

In the absence of a safe and effective vaccine developed soon, Harned predicts air travel would return to 2019 levels by 2023. That means airlines will require fewer deliveries from jet makers to meet reduced demand.

As the number of reported Covid-19 infections in the U.S. has increased in recent days, some of the juice has come out of the commercial aerospace sector. Boeing stock is down about 9% over the past week. Airline shares have fallen about 10%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 are off by 1.3% and 1% over the same span, respectively.

Even though stocks have bounced back from their March lows, commercial aerospace has been devastated by the pandemic. Boeing and Airbus stocks remain down about 46% and 57% year to date, respectively. The aerospace supplier stocks Barron's tracks are down about 40% on average. And airline shares are down roughly 48%. The declines have wiped out hundreds of billions of market value.

The battle airlines are waging with the virus is far from over. In fact, Italy is banning carry-on luggage, in a move reported on by the Italian newspaper Corriere Della Sera Thursday. The Italian National Civil Aviation Authority will ban the use of overhead bins for health reasons starting Friday.

If other countries do the same, it would be another potential headwind for airline stocks. Checking bags adds time and irritation for travelers, and U.S. airlines also generate billions of dollars from checked-baggage fees. A requirement to check bags might make it tougher to collect that revenue.

Italy was hit hard by the pandemic in March and April. More recently, the number of new cases diagnosed daily in Italy is in the hundreds, down from thousands. About 240,000 Italian cases have been reported and more than 34,000 people have died in the country. Globally, reported cases are approaching 10 million and deaths are nearing 500,000.

The U.S. reported more than 39,000 new infections Thursday, according to the Covid Tracking Project. That's close to a new daily high. Testing is up, but positive results have averaged 6.1% of the total over the past week, up from about 5.4% a month ago.

Write to Al Root at allen.root@dowjones.com

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

June 26, 2020 09:49 ET (13:49 GMT)

Copyright (c) 2020 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

DJ波音和空客股票评级被下调。分析师说,不要指望快速疫苗。--Barrons.com


按Al Root

伯恩斯坦分析师道格拉斯·哈恩德下调了波音和空客的评级,这两家公司是仅有的两家大型喷气式飞机制造商,因为新冠肺炎疫情的解决方案还不够快。

哈恩德在周五的一份研究报告中写道:“我们已经看到了新冠肺炎康复的潜力,因为这取决于医疗解决方案,以使全球旅行水平恢复正常。”“根据我们对交通前景的评估,结合伯恩斯坦医疗团队的分析,我们认为解决方案还很遥远。”

他对这两只股票的评级都从相当于买入降至持有。他的波音(股票代码:BA)目标股价从180美元降至165美元,同时他将对空客(AIR.France)的看涨电话从73欧元(80美元)下调至69欧元。

这是一个悲观的观点。航空航天投资者最近感觉更乐观了。例如,波音公司的股价在过去一个月里上涨了20%以上。

更多的飞机上的人是增加乐观情绪的原因之一。过去七天,美国的航空旅行同比下降了约80%。一个月前,可比跌幅约为90%。这并不是一个巨大的进步,但华尔街喜欢关注变化的速度。

对于航空公司和喷气式飞机制造商来说,一种可行的冠状病毒疫苗一直被视为一件大事,它可能会比目前预计的更快地带回航空旅行。然而,哈内德在这一点上采取了谨慎的立场。

这位分析师写道:“虽然疫苗方面的进展仍在继续,但我们预计这不会是完整的解决方案。”“目前有许多疫苗正在研发中,我们有信心在2021年出现成功的疫苗。但是,目前还不清楚早期疫苗的效力是什么,也不知道随着时间的推移,全球飞行人口中接种疫苗的比例会有多大。”

在没有很快开发出安全有效的疫苗的情况下,哈内德预测,到2023年,航空旅行将恢复到2019年的水平。这意味着航空公司将减少要求喷气式飞机制造商的交货量,以满足减少的需求。

随着最近几天美国报告的新冠肺炎感染人数的增加,一些果汁已经从商业航空领域流出。波音股价在过去一周下跌约9%。航空公司的股价已经下跌了约10%。道琼斯工业股票平均价格指数(Dow Jones Industrial Average)和标准普尔500指数(S&P500)同期分别下跌1.3%和1%。

尽管股市已经从3月份的低点反弹,但商业航空航天已经被大流行摧毁。波音和空客股票今年迄今分别下跌约46%和57%。航空航天供应商的股票Barron‘s Track平均下跌约40%。航空公司的股价下跌了大约48%。这些下跌已经抹去了数千亿美元的市值。

航空公司与该病毒的战斗远未结束。事实上,意大利“晚邮报”(Corriere Della Sera)周四报道称,意大利正在禁止随身携带行李。意大利国家民航局将从周五开始,出于健康原因禁止使用头顶行李箱。

如果其他国家也这么做,这将是航空股的另一个潜在逆风。托运行李增加了旅行者的时间和烦恼,美国航空公司也从托运行李费用中产生了数十亿美元。检查行李的要求可能会使收取这笔收入变得更加困难。

意大利在3月和4月受到大流行的沉重打击。最近,意大利每天诊断的新病例数量从数千例下降到数百例。意大利已报告约24万例病例,该国已有超过3.4万人死亡。在全球范围内,报告的病例接近1000万例,死亡人数接近50万人。

根据Covid Tracking Project的数据,美国周四报告了超过3.9万例新感染病例。这接近每日新高。检测在上升,但过去一周阳性结果平均占总数的6.1%,高于一个月前的约5.4%。

写信给Al Root,地址为allen.root@dowjones.com

(完)道琼斯通讯社

2020年6月26日东部时间09:49(格林尼治标准时间13:49)

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