Jim Chanos Updates His Tesla Thesis
Jim Chanos Updates His Tesla Thesis
Kynikos Associates founder Jim Chanos (Trades, Portfolio) has been a very vocal critic of electric car manufacturer Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA), as well as its celebrity CEO Elon Musk, over the last five years. Since October 2019, Tesla's stock has more than quadrupled in price, and as of writing, the business has a $186 billion market capitalization and is trading at more than $1,000 a share. Despite this, Chanos is still as bearish as ever on the company. He discussed his thesis in a recent interview with Bloomberg.
Kynikos Associates 创始人吉姆·查诺斯(Trades,Portfolio)一直是电动汽车制造商的直言不讳 特斯拉公司。(纳斯达克股票代码:TSLA)及其名人首席执行官埃隆·马斯克,在过去五年中。自2019年10月以来,特斯拉的股票价格翻了两倍多,截至撰写本文时,该公司的市值为1860亿美元,每股交易价格超过1,000美元。尽管如此,查诺斯仍然像以往一样看跌该公司。他在最近接受彭博社采访时讨论了他的论点。
A barometer for the market
市场的晴雨表
Few stocks inspire such heated debate between bulls and bears like Tesla. Bulls view it like a tech growth stock, whereas bears like Chanos see it as an overpriced automaker whose biggest growth period is behind it. And it’s not difficult to see why he holds this view: Tesla has very similar profit margins and returns on capital to other automobile original equipment manufacturers and is not at all similar to tech companies like Google (NASDAQ:GOOG) or Facebook (NASDAQ:FB). Meanwhile, the company’s revenues - after this quarter - will have been essentially flat for six consecutive quarters, which somewhat undermines the growth argument as well.Warning! GuruFocus has detected 8 Warning Signs with TSLA. Click here to check it out.TSLA 30-Year Financial DataThe intrinsic value of TSLAPeter Lynch Chart of TSLA
很少有股票能像特斯拉那样激发多头和空头之间的激烈辩论。多头将其视为科技成长股,而像查诺斯这样的空头则将其视为价格过高的汽车制造商,其最大的增长期已经过去。不难看出他为什么持这种观点:特斯拉的利润率和资本回报率与其他汽车原始设备制造商非常相似,与像这样的科技公司完全不相似 谷歌 (纳斯达克股票代码:GOOG)或 Facebook (纳斯达克:FB)。同时,该公司的收入——在本季度之后——将连续六个季度基本持平,这也在一定程度上削弱了增长论点。警告!GuruFocus 在 TSLA 中检测到 8 个警告信号。点击这里查看。TSLA 30 年财务数据 TSLA 的 tslaPeter Lynch Chart 的内在价值
But the real core of Chanos’ argument comes down to valuation:
但是查诺斯论点的真正核心归结为估值:
“This is a company trading now at an almost $200 billion total enterprise value, so it's trading at 8 times revenue. Most of the other automakers trade between 0.25 times and 0.5 times revenue. So this is really totally a perception by the market that there is some cutting edge technology here. The problem is that what everyone is excited about - whether it’s batteries or autonomy - Tesla’s not a market leader: Panasonic makes its batteries, the new ‘superbatteries’ out of China are made by a company called CATL. Audi in its A8 [model] has level 3 autonomy, while Tesla is still at level 2...Tesla is a wonderful barometer for where people’s views are on speculation, because people see it the way they want to see it. The product at Tesla that has always been first-rate is the narrative.”
“这家公司现在的总企业价值接近2000亿美元,因此它的交易收入是收入的8倍。其他大多数汽车制造商的交易价格在收入的0.25倍至0.5倍之间。因此,这完全是市场认为这里有一些尖端技术。问题在于,每个人都兴奋的东西——无论是电池还是自主性——特斯拉都不是市场领导者:松下生产电池,中国的新型 “超级电池” 是由一家名为CATL的公司制造的。奥迪的A8 [model] 拥有3级自主权,而特斯拉仍处于2级... 特斯拉是一个很好的晴雨表,可以衡量人们的看法是猜测,因为人们以他们想要的方式看待它。特斯拉一直以来一流的产品就是叙事。”
Chanos, who recently booked big profits on his short against German payment company Wirecard (XTER:WDI), added that he has plenty of questions about Tesla’s financial statements too, specifically in connection with the 2016 acquisition of SolarCity, another Musk business. Tesla is currently in the midst in a class-action lawsuit concerning the manner in which the takeover was carried out.
查诺斯最近通过对德国支付公司Wirecard(XTER: WDI)的空头获利丰厚。他补充说,他对特斯拉的财务报表也有很多疑问,特别是与2016年收购另一家马斯克企业SolarCity有关的问题。特斯拉目前正在就收购的进行方式提起集体诉讼。
Musk claimed that SolarCity’s solar roof tile technology would synergize well with Tesla, using this argument to drum up support for the merger. It was later disclosed that this technology did not exist and, as of June, Tesla is cancelling customer orders for the solar tiles.
马斯克声称,SolarCity的太阳能屋顶瓦片技术将与特斯拉很好地协同作用,并利用这一论点来争取对合并的支持。后来透露这项技术不存在,截至6月,特斯拉取消了客户对太阳能瓦片的订单。
Chanos has been on a roll the last few months with bets against Wirecard and Hertz (NYSE:HTZ) paying off handsomely, but if he ends up being right on Tesla, that will be his biggest headline in a while.
在过去的几个月里,查诺斯一直在押注 Wirecard 和 Hertz(纽约证券交易所:HTZ)获得了丰厚的回报,但如果他最终对特斯拉说对了,那将是他一段时间以来最大的头条新闻。
Disclosure: The author owns no stocks mentioned.
披露:作者没有上述股票。
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不是 GuruFocus 的高级会员?在此处注册 7 天免费试用。 另请查看: 吉姆·查诺斯被低估的股票吉姆·查诺斯的热门成长公司吉姆·查诺斯的高收益股票以及吉姆·查诺斯一直在买入的股票 作者简介:
Stepan Lavrouk Stepan Lavrouk is a financial writer with a background in equity research and macro trading. Specific investing interests include energy, fundamental geoeconomic analysis and biotechnology. He holds a bachelor of science degree from Trinity College Dublin.
斯蒂芬·拉夫鲁克 斯蒂芬·拉夫鲁克是一位具有股票研究和宏观交易背景的金融作家。具体的投资兴趣包括能源、基本地缘经济分析和生物技术。他拥有都柏林三一学院的理学学士学位。
译文内容由第三方软件翻译。
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