UPDATE: Human ingenuity will solve the coronavirus, but I'm worried we might screw up everything else
UPDATE: Human ingenuity will solve the coronavirus, but I'm worried we might screw up everything else
MW UPDATE: Human ingenuity will solve the coronavirus, but I'm worried we might screw up everything else
最新消息：人類的聰明才智將解決冠狀病毒，但我擔心我們可能會搞砸其他一切
By Jared Dillian of Mauldin Economics
作者：Jared Dillian，Mauldin Economics
We have to accept trade-offs in getting the deadly virus under control. Our biggest mistake might be that we won't have to sacrifice
我們必須接受在控制這種致命病毒方面的權衡。我們最大的錯誤可能是我們不必犧牲
It is very, very hard to be short human ingenuity.
缺少人類的聰明才智是非常非常困難的。
For example, when you buy commodities, you are betting, partially, that people will be incompetent at producing or obtaining them. Occasionally this happens, but not for very long.
例如，當你購買大宗商品時，你在一定程度上押注人們將無法生產或獲得這些商品。這種情況偶爾會發生，但不會持續很長時間。
Commodity prices rose in the mid-2000s because of other factors, such as a sharp rise in inflation expectations, resulting in large institutional allocations to commodities via commodity index swaps. But it wasn't because we screwed things up.
由於其他因素，大宗商品價格在2000年代中期上漲，例如通脹預期大幅上升，導致機構通過大宗商品指數掉期對大宗商品進行大量配置。但這不是因為我們把事情搞砸了。
Commodity prices generally go down over time. The long-term returns on commodity indices have been bad. Crop yields keep going up, and fracking has substantially reduced the price of oil and natural gas . The world is having some trouble getting its hands on more gold, but those of you with gold in your portfolios aren't sad about that.
大宗商品價格通常會隨着時間的推移而下降。大宗商品指數的長期回報一直不佳。作物產量持續上升，水力壓裂大幅降低了石油和天然氣的價格。世界在獲得更多黃金方面遇到了一些困難，但你們中的那些在投資組合中持有黃金的人並不為此感到難過。
To be clear: A bet on rising commodity prices is either a bet on macro factors, like inflation, or on profound political shifts. It is hard work betting against human ingenuity.
需要明確的是：押注大宗商品價格上漲，要麼是押注於通脹等宏觀因素，要麼是押注於深刻的政治變化。與人類的聰明才智打賭是一項艱苦的工作。
When you short the stock market , you are also betting against human ingenuity. There have been a handful of times in history when this has worked. The financial crisis 12 years ago was one of them. But even the financial crisis, peak to trough, was over in 21 months.
當你做空股市時，你也在押注於人類的聰明才智。在歷史上，這種做法曾有過幾次奏效。12年前的金融危機就是其中之一。但即使是金融危機，從高峯到低谷，也只用了21個月就過去了。
The European debt crisis, which began in earnest in 2010, was equally devastating, but only resulted in a decline of about 20% in U.S. stocks. The LTCM/Russian debt default in 1998 also only resulted in a decline of about 20%. The 1991 recession, as severe as it was, was just a blip in historical terms.
真正開始於2010年的歐債危機同樣具有破壞性，但只導致美國股市下跌約20%。1998年長期資本管理公司/俄羅斯的債務違約也只導致了大約20%的跌幅。1991年的經濟衰退儘管嚴重，但在歷史上只是曇花一現。
In 2008, a group of short-sellers became famous by shorting the U.S. housing market. Investors have spent the past 10 years trying to replicate that feat, unsuccessfully.
2008年，一羣賣空者因做空美國房地產市場而出名。過去10年，投資者一直試圖複製這一壯舉，但未獲成功。
Human beings do occasionally screw up -- there are financial accidents from time to time. But the imbalances and excessive leverage that were present just a month ago started building long before that.
人類確實偶爾會搞砸--時不時地會發生金融事故。但就在一個月前，失衡和過度槓桿率早在那之前就開始積累了。
You could have been short in 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018 and 2019 -- and people were. If you get one of these bear markets right, the timing will be mostly luck, and you will pay a lot of carry in the process.
你可能在2015年、2016年、2017年、2018年和2019年做空--人們確實是這樣做的。如果你走對了其中一個熊市，時機將主要靠運氣，在這個過程中你將支付大量的利差。
Rate of change slowing
變化率放緩
There is a lot of pessimism around COVID-19. The pessimism mostly comes from New York, where the number of infections is greatest, and from people working in health care, who are witnessing truly awful things every day.
圍繞新冠肺炎有很多悲觀情緒。悲觀情緒主要來自感染人數最多的紐約和衞生保健工作人員，他們每天都在目睹真正可怕的事情。
Many people seem to believe that:
許多人似乎相信這一點：
-- We will not figure this out.
--我們不會解決這個問題的。
-- We will be under quarantine for months.
--我們將被隔離幾個月。
-- Social distancing will not work.
--社交距離是行不通的。
-- Hospitals will be overwhelmed.
--醫院將不堪重負。
-- Life will be altered forever.
--生活將永遠改變。
Humanity has had a pretty good track record of solving problems, whether it was terrorism, the cold war or other health scares. Nobody is really paying attention to the good news.
人類在解決問題方面有着相當好的記錄，無論是恐怖主義、冷戰還是其他健康恐慌。沒有人真正注意到這個好消息。
The good news is that we were technologically more prepared to deal with a pandemic in 2020 than at any point in history. Zoom , and other platforms, are connecting us all -- but all the media is focusing on is the security risks.
好消息是，我們在應對2020年大流行方面的技術準備比歷史上任何時候都要充分。Zoom和其他平臺正在將我們所有人聯繫在一起--但所有媒體關注的都是安全風險。
Technology is helping us deal with the crisis and allocate resources. The news is about the ways resources are misallocated.
技術正在幫助我們應對危機和分配資源。這則新聞是關於資源被不當分配的方式。
The vast majority of people are practicing social distancing (https://mauldineconomics.com/go/jr9qxjnr/mkw). The news is about the people who aren't -- the spring breakers in Miami Beach.
絕大多數人都在練習社交距離(https://mauldineconomics.com/go/jr9qxjnr/mkw).新聞是關於不是這樣的人--邁阿密海灘的春假。
Every step of the way in this crisis, we have consistently underestimated government, underestimated the private sector and underestimated health-care workers. And yet, the rate of change of COVID-19 cases is actually slowing.
在這場危機中的每一步，我們都一直低估了政府，低估了私營部門，低估了衞生保健工作者。然而，新冠肺炎案件的變化速度實際上正在放緩。
Of course, the actual number of COVID-19 cases is not slowing, but the rate of change is.
當然，新冠肺炎案件的實際數量並沒有放緩，而是變化的速度在放緩。
Typically when people run into trouble with bonds or options, it's because they don't understand the second derivative. The market discounts, and by the time it becomes apparent that the number of infections will flatten, the market will have already rallied. It will be too late to buy in at the lows ... or maybe it already is.
通常，當人們在債券或期權上遇到麻煩時，這是因為他們不理解二次衍生品。市場在打折，當感染人數明顯持平時，市場已經回升了。在低點買入將為時已晚。或許它已經是了。
We've flipped the switch
我們已經按下了開關
The virus doesn't scare me; our financial response to the virus scares me.
病毒並沒有嚇到我；我們對病毒的財務反應讓我害怕。
We have flipped the switch on unlimited deficit spending, unlimited quantitative easing (QE), and what is basically modern monetary theory (https://mauldineconomics.com/go/kr6qwklz/mkw) (MMT). We are not going to put that toothpaste back in the tube.
我們已經啟動了無限制赤字支出、無限制量化寬鬆(QE)以及基本上屬於現代貨幣理論的貨幣政策((https://mauldineconomics.com/go/kr6qwklz/mkw))。我們不打算把牙膏放回牙膏管子裏。
That is the part I am worried about. We have crossed the Rubicon.
這就是我擔心的部分。我們已經渡過了盧比孔河。
If commodity prices rise significantly, it will probably happen because of macro factors -- mistakes at the policymaker level.
如果大宗商品價格大幅上漲，很可能是因為宏觀因素--政策制定者層面的錯誤。
If equity prices decline significantly, it will probably happen because of macro factors -- mistakes at the policymaker level.
如果股價大幅下跌，很可能是因為宏觀因素--政策制定者層面的錯誤。
Stocks won't go down because of the virus. We will solve the virus in the short term. Stocks may go down because of what comes after the virus, which is too terrible to contemplate.
股票不會因為病毒而下跌。我們將在短期內解決病毒問題。股市可能會下跌，因為病毒之後會發生什麼，這太可怕了，無法想象。
I believe in human ingenuity. I believe in our ability to solve problems.
我相信人類的獨創性。我相信我們有能力解決問題。
I also believe in our capacity to make problems worse. I believe in the human tendency to question the reality of economic trade-offs -- as some think you can have your cake and eat it, too.
我也相信我們有能力讓問題變得更糟。我相信人類傾向於質疑經濟權衡的現實--就像一些人認為你可以既有蛋糕又能吃蛋糕一樣。
Jared Dillian is an investment strategist at Mauldin Economics (https://mauldineconomics.com/go/wzp3nwwr/mkw) and a former head of ETF trading at Lehman Brothers. Subscribe to his weekly investment newsletter, The 10th Man (https://mauldineconomics.com/go/lzml43qr/mkw), and listen to his daily radio program, The Jared Dillian Show (https://mauldineconomics.com/go/4zng6n8r/mkw). And follow Jared on Twitter @dailydirtnap (https://mauldineconomics.com/go/9r2gmkpz/mkw).
本文作者是Mauldin Economics(https://mauldineconomics.com/go/wzp3nwwr/mkw)的投資策略師，曾任雷曼兄弟交易所交易基金交易主管訂閲他的每週投資時事通訊The 10 Man(https://mauldineconomics.com/go/lzml43qr/mkw)，，收聽他的日常廣播節目The Jared Dillian Show(https://mauldineconomics.com/go/4zng6n8r/mkw).並在推特@dailydirtnap(https://mauldineconomics.com/go/9r2gmkpz/mkw).上關注賈裏德
-Jared Dillian; 415-439-6400; AskNewswires@dowjones.com
--賈裏德·迪利安；415-439-6400；
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April 18, 2020 07:00 ET (11:00 GMT)
2020年4月18日東部時間07：00(格林尼治標準時間11：00)
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