share_log

What Would It Take to Cut AT&T's Dividend? An Analyst Did a Stress Test. -- Barrons.com

What Would It Take to Cut AT&T's Dividend? An Analyst Did a Stress Test. -- Barrons.com

削減AT&T的股息需要什麼?一位分析師做了壓力測試。-Barrons.com
道琼斯 ·  2020/04/04 05:00

DJ What Would It Take to Cut AT&T's Dividend? An Analyst Did a Stress Test. -- Barrons.com

要削減AT&T的股息,DJ會採取什麼措施?一位分析師做了壓力測試。-Barrons.com


By Nicholas Jasinski

尼古拉斯·賈辛斯基

How bad would the economy need to get for AT&T to consider cutting its dividend? The stock's annual yield is 7.2% in a zero-interest-rate world, and the payout is no small part of many investors' reason for owning the Dividend Aristocrat's shares in the first place.

美國電話電報公司(AT&T)要考慮削減股息,經濟需要承受多大的壓力?在零利率的世界裏,這隻股票的年收益率是7.2%,而這種回報在許多投資者最初持有股息的原因中並不是一小部分。

Phone companies tend to be the types of stable, high-cash-flow businesses that can support generous dividends through good times and bad. But years of diversification initiatives have transformed AT&T (ticker: T) into a much more cyclical and economically sensitive company. That promises greater potential growth in boom times, but also higher risk during busts.

電話公司往往是穩定的、高現金流的企業,能夠在好的時候和壞的時候支持豐厚的紅利。但多年來的多元化舉措已將AT&T(滴答代碼:T)轉變為一家更具週期性和經濟敏感性的公司。這可能會在繁榮時期帶來更大的潛在增長,但在蕭條時期也會帶來更高的風險。

And there is little remaining doubt that the coronavirus pandemic will cause a sharp recession in 2020. In a report on Friday, MoffettNathanson analyst Craig Moffett ran through several recession scenarios, looking at how they would affect AT&T's business and ability to maintain the payout.

毫無疑問,到2020年,冠狀病毒大流行將導致經濟急劇衰退。莫菲特(MoffettNathanson)分析師克雷格·莫菲特(CraigMoffett)在週五的一份報告中分析了幾種經濟衰退的情況,看看它們將如何影響AT&T的業務和維持支出的能力。

Moffett's conclusion wasn't optimistic. He kept his Sell rating on the stock, and lowered his target for the share price to $23, the lowest on the Street, from $30.

莫菲特的結論並不樂觀。他保持了對股票的賣出評級,並將股價目標從30美元下調至23美元,為華爾街最低水平。

The company declined to comment. AT&T shares were down 5% on Friday, to about $27.30, versus a 2% drop for the S&P 500.

該公司拒絕置評。美國電話電報公司(AT&T)股價上週五下跌5%,至27.30美元,而標準普爾500指數(S&P 500)下跌2%。

In 2019, AT&T produced $29 billion in free cash flow after capital expenditures, which easily covered the company's roughly $15 billion in dividend obligations. But equity holders aren't the only ones with claims on the cash generated by the telecom and media conglomerate.

在2019年,AT&T在資本支出之後產生了290億美元的自由現金流,這很容易涵蓋該公司大約150億美元的股利義務。但股東並不是唯一對這家電信和媒體集團產生的現金擁有主權的人。

AT&T ended the year with $176 billion in net debt, one of the highest totals for any individual company in the U.S. The debt load is largely a product of two non-telecom acquisitions: The company paid a combined $172 billion, including debt, for DirecTV and Time Warner, in 2015 and last year, respectively.

美國電話電報公司(AT&T)年底的淨債務總額為1,760億美元,是美國所有公司中最高的。債務負擔主要是兩次非電信收購的結果:該公司分別在2015年和去年為DirecTV和時代華納支付了總計1,720億美元的債務,其中包括債務。

Those deals changed the profile of the company. AT&T's wireless phone segment brings in about 40% of sales now, with the rest split between the renamed WarnerMedia, cable and satellite TV, and the business wireline operation.

這些交易改變了公司的形象。AT&T公司的無線電話部門目前約佔40%的銷售額,其餘部分則由改名的WarnerMedia、有線電視和衞星電視以及業務有線業務分拆。

"Wireless is rightly viewed as a defensive business," Moffett wrote. "...Their other businesses, which now compose the majority of the company, are all either moderately or highly cyclical."

莫菲特寫道:“無線被正確地認為是一項防禦性的業務。”“.他們的其他業務,現在佔公司的大多數,都是中度或高度週期性的。”

The shift within AT&T shows clearly in the stock's relative performance in 2020. Since the S&P 500 hit its last record high on Feb. 19, the index has lost 25% of its value. AT&T shares have dropped 27%, yet Verizon Communications (VZ) -- still predominantly a mobile phone service business -- has slipped just 6%. Verizon's dividend yield is 4.5%, below AT&T's, signaling investors see the former stock as less risky even though dividends soak up a bigger share of its free cash flow.

AT&T內部的變化清楚地表明瞭該股在2020年的相對錶現。自從標準普爾500指數在2月19日創下歷史新高以來,該指數已經下跌了25%。AT&T股價下跌27%,而主要是手機服務業務的威瑞森通信(VerizonCommunications)僅下跌6%。Verizon的股息收益率為4.5%,低於AT&T公司,這表明投資者認為前一隻股票的風險較小,儘管股息吸收了更多的自由現金流份額。

Even in his most severe recession scenario, AT&T's dividend commitments never exceed Moffett's projection for its free cash flow -- assuming some reductions to capital expenditures. But for Moffett, it's less a question of AT&T's dividend coverage and more a problem of leverage.

即使在他最嚴重的經濟衰退情況下,AT&T的股利承諾也從未超過莫菲特對其自由現金流的預測--假設資本支出有所削減。但對莫菲特來説,這不是AT&T的股利問題,而是槓桿率問題。

"The issue is not whether their dividend coverage ratio drops below 1x free cash flow -- although it certainly might -- it's whether they will become too levered to sustain their credit rating without cutting the dividend," Moffett wrote.

莫菲特寫道:“問題不在於他們的股利覆蓋率是否降至自由現金流的1倍以下--儘管這當然有可能--而是它們是否會變得過於槓桿化,無法在不削減股息的情況下維持信用評級。”

AT&T's debt is currently rated Baa2 by Moody's and BBB by S&P -- both two levels above junk status. Maintaining an investment-grade rating is a must for a company with hundreds of billions of dollars of borrowings and at least $10 billion in maturities coming due in each of the next five years.

AT&T的債務目前被穆迪評為Baa 2,被標準普爾評為BBB,這兩個級別都高於垃圾級。對於一家擁有數千億美元借款和至少100億美元到期期限的公司來説,維持投資評級是必須的。

Moffett pointed to a December credit opinion by Moody's, in which the company says it could downgrade AT&T's rating if its free cash flow declines relative to its debt, or if adjusted leverage climbs above 3.5 adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization on a sustained basis. Some of AT&T's debt covenants also require it to keep net debt below 3.5 times adjusted Ebitda.

莫菲特指出了穆迪去年12月的一項信貸意見。穆迪在該意見中表示,如果AT&T的自由現金流相對於其債務下降,或者如果調整後的槓桿率持續攀升至3.5調整後的息、税、折舊和攤銷前利潤,該公司可能會下調其評級。AT&T的一些債務契約還要求AT&T將淨債務保持在調整後EBITDA的3.5倍以下。

Ebitda from AT&T's more economically sensitive segments will likely decline substantially during a recession. If a downturn continues beyond 2020, Moffett writes, AT&T's leverage ratio could rise to the point where the company will need to choose between using its cash flow to maintain its dividend, or to preserve its credit rating. AT&T has already suspended planned share buybacks to preserve cash during the coronavirus crisis.

AT&T的經濟敏感部門的EBITDA很可能在經濟衰退期間大幅下降。莫菲特寫道,如果經濟衰退持續到2020年以後,AT&T的槓桿率可能會上升到需要在使用現金流維持股息或維持信用評級之間做出選擇的地步。AT&T已經暫停了計劃中的股票回購計劃,以在冠狀病毒危機期間保留現金。

"In a lingering recession, would [the ratings firms] demand a dividend cut to now pay down debt more rapidly?" Moffett wrote. "We simply don't know. But it is certainly not inconceivable. In our view, AT&T's dividend can no longer be considered a sure thing."

“在一場揮之不去的衰退中,[評級公司]莫菲特寫道:“現在要求削減股息,以更快地償還債務嗎?我們只是不知道。”但這當然不是不可想象的。在我們看來,AT&T的股息不再被認為是一件確定的事情。“

Write to Nicholas Jasinski at nicholas.jasinski@barrons.com

電子郵件:nicholas.jasinski@Barrons.com



(END) Dow Jones Newswires

(完)道瓊斯通訊社

April 03, 2020 15:20 ET (19:20 GMT)

2020年4月3日15:20(格林尼治時間19:20)

DJ What Would It Take to Cut AT&T's Dividend? An Analyst Did a Stress Test. -- Barrons.com

要削減AT&T的股息,DJ會採取什麼措施?一位分析師做了壓力測試。-Barrons.com


By Nicholas Jasinski

尼古拉斯·賈辛斯基

How bad would the economy need to get for AT&T to consider cutting its dividend? The stock's annual yield is 7.2% in a zero-interest-rate world, and the payout is no small part of many investors' reason for owning the Dividend Aristocrat's shares in the first place.

美國電話電報公司(AT&T)要考慮削減股息,經濟需要承受多大的壓力?在零利率的世界裏,這隻股票的年收益率是7.2%,而這種回報在許多投資者最初持有股息的原因中並不是一小部分。

Phone companies tend to be the types of stable, high-cash-flow businesses that can support generous dividends through good times and bad. But years of diversification initiatives have transformed AT&T (ticker: T) into a much more cyclical and economically sensitive company. That promises greater potential growth in boom times, but also higher risk during busts.

電話公司往往是穩定的、高現金流的企業,能夠在好的時候和壞的時候支持豐厚的紅利。但多年來的多元化舉措已將AT&T(滴答代碼:T)轉變為一家更具週期性和經濟敏感性的公司。這可能會在繁榮時期帶來更大的潛在增長,但在蕭條時期也會帶來更高的風險。

And there is little remaining doubt that the coronavirus pandemic will cause a sharp recession in 2020. In a report on Friday, MoffettNathanson analyst Craig Moffett ran through several recession scenarios, looking at how they would affect AT&T's business and ability to maintain the payout.

毫無疑問,到2020年,冠狀病毒大流行將導致經濟急劇衰退。莫菲特(MoffettNathanson)分析師克雷格·莫菲特(CraigMoffett)在週五的一份報告中分析了幾種經濟衰退的情況,看看它們將如何影響AT&T的業務和維持支出的能力。

Moffett's conclusion wasn't optimistic. He kept his Sell rating on the stock, and lowered his target for the share price to $23, the lowest on the Street, from $30.

莫菲特的結論並不樂觀。他保持了對股票的賣出評級,並將股價目標從30美元下調至23美元,為華爾街最低水平。

The company declined to comment. AT&T shares were down 5% on Friday, to about $27.30, versus a 2% drop for the S&P 500.

該公司拒絕置評。美國電話電報公司(AT&T)股價上週五下跌5%,至27.30美元,而標準普爾500指數(S&P 500)下跌2%。

In 2019, AT&T produced $29 billion in free cash flow after capital expenditures, which easily covered the company's roughly $15 billion in dividend obligations. But equity holders aren't the only ones with claims on the cash generated by the telecom and media conglomerate.

在2019年,AT&T在資本支出之後產生了290億美元的自由現金流,這很容易涵蓋該公司大約150億美元的股利義務。但股東並不是唯一對這家電信和媒體集團產生的現金擁有主權的人。

AT&T ended the year with $151 billion in net debt, one of the highest totals for any individual company in the U.S. The debt load is largely a product of two non-telecom acquisitions: The company paid a combined $172 billion, including debt, for DirecTV and Time Warner, in 2015 and last year, respectively.

年底,AT&T公司淨負債1510億美元,是美國所有公司中債務總額最高的公司之一。債務負擔在很大程度上是兩次非電信收購的結果:該公司分別在2015年和去年為DirecTV和時代華納支付了總計1,720億美元的債務,其中包括債務。

Those deals changed the profile of the company. AT&T's wireless phone segment brings in about 40% of sales now, with the rest split between the renamed WarnerMedia, cable and satellite TV, and the business wireline operation.

這些交易改變了公司的形象。AT&T公司的無線電話部門目前約佔40%的銷售額,其餘部分則由改名的WarnerMedia、有線電視和衞星電視以及業務有線業務分拆。

"Wireless is rightly viewed as a defensive business," Moffett wrote. "...Their other businesses, which now compose the majority of the company, are all either moderately or highly cyclical."

莫菲特寫道:“無線被正確地認為是一項防禦性的業務。”“.他們的其他業務,現在佔公司的大多數,都是中度或高度週期性的。”

The shift within AT&T shows clearly in the stock's relative performance in 2020. Since the S&P 500 hit its last record high on Feb. 19, the index has lost 25% of its value. AT&T shares have dropped 27%, yet Verizon Communications (VZ) -- still predominantly a mobile phone service business -- has slipped just 6%. Verizon's dividend yield is 4.5%, below AT&T's, signaling investors see the former stock as less risky even though dividends soak up a bigger share of its free cash flow.

AT&T內部的變化清楚地表明瞭該股在2020年的相對錶現。自從標準普爾500指數在2月19日創下歷史新高以來,該指數已經下跌了25%。AT&T股價下跌27%,而主要是手機服務業務的威瑞森通信(VerizonCommunications)僅下跌6%。Verizon的股息收益率為4.5%,低於AT&T公司,這表明投資者認為前一隻股票的風險較小,儘管股息吸收了更多的自由現金流份額。

Even in his most severe recession scenario, AT&T's dividend commitments never exceed Moffett's projection for its free cash flow -- assuming some reductions to capital expenditures. But for Moffett, it's less a question of AT&T's dividend coverage and more a problem of leverage.

即使在他最嚴重的經濟衰退情況下,AT&T的股利承諾也從未超過莫菲特對其自由現金流的預測--假設資本支出有所削減。但對莫菲特來説,這不是AT&T的股利問題,而是槓桿率問題。

"The issue is not whether their dividend coverage ratio drops below 1x free cash flow -- although it certainly might -- it's whether they will become too levered to sustain their credit rating without cutting the dividend," Moffett wrote.

莫菲特寫道:“問題不在於他們的股利覆蓋率是否降至自由現金流的1倍以下--儘管這當然有可能--而是它們是否會變得過於槓桿化,無法在不削減股息的情況下維持信用評級。”

AT&T's debt is currently rated Baa2 by Moody's and BBB by S&P -- both two levels above junk status. Maintaining an investment-grade rating is a must for a company with hundreds of billions of dollars of borrowings and at least $10 billion in maturities coming due in each of the next five years.

AT&T的債務目前被穆迪評為Baa 2,被標準普爾評為BBB,這兩個級別都高於垃圾級。對於一家擁有數千億美元借款和至少100億美元到期期限的公司來説,維持投資評級是必須的。

Moffett pointed to a December credit opinion by Moody's, in which the company says it could downgrade AT&T's rating if its free cash flow declines relative to its debt, or if adjusted leverage climbs above 3.5 adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization on a sustained basis. Some of AT&T's debt covenants also require it to keep net debt below 3.5 times adjusted Ebitda.

莫菲特指出了穆迪去年12月的一項信貸意見。穆迪在該意見中表示,如果AT&T的自由現金流相對於其債務下降,或者如果調整後的槓桿率持續攀升至3.5調整後的息、税、折舊和攤銷前利潤,該公司可能會下調其評級。AT&T的一些債務契約還要求AT&T將淨債務保持在調整後EBITDA的3.5倍以下。

Ebitda from AT&T's more economically sensitive segments will likely decline substantially during a recession. If a downturn continues beyond 2020, Moffett writes, AT&T's leverage ratio could rise to the point where the company will need to choose between using its cash flow to maintain its dividend, or to preserve its credit rating. AT&T has already suspended planned share buybacks to preserve cash during the coronavirus crisis.

AT&T的經濟敏感部門的EBITDA很可能在經濟衰退期間大幅下降。莫菲特寫道,如果經濟衰退持續到2020年以後,AT&T的槓桿率可能會上升到需要在使用現金流維持股息或維持信用評級之間做出選擇的地步。AT&T已經暫停了計劃中的股票回購計劃,以在冠狀病毒危機期間保留現金。

"In a lingering recession, would [the ratings firms] demand a dividend cut to now pay down debt more rapidly?" Moffett wrote. "We simply don't know. But it is certainly not inconceivable. In our view, AT&T's dividend can no longer be considered a sure thing."

“在一場揮之不去的衰退中,[評級公司]莫菲特寫道:“現在要求削減股息,以更快地償還債務嗎?我們只是不知道。”但這當然不是不可想象的。在我們看來,AT&T的股息不再被認為是一件確定的事情。“

Write to Nicholas Jasinski at nicholas.jasinski@barrons.com

電子郵件:nicholas.jasinski@Barrons.com



(END) Dow Jones Newswires

(完)道瓊斯通訊社

April 03, 2020 17:00 ET (21:00 GMT)

2020年4月3日17:00(格林尼治時間21:00)

Copyright (c) 2020 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

版權(C)2020 DowJones&Company,Inc.

譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。


以上內容僅用作資訊或教育之目的,不構成與富途相關的任何投資建議。富途竭力但無法保證上述全部內容的真實性、準確性和原創性。
    搶先評論