share_log

Best Stock Traits to Look for as Markets Tumble

Best Stock Traits to Look for as Markets Tumble

在市場暴跌中尋找最好的股票特徵
finviz ·  2020/02/28 22:27

As February draws to a close, U.S. markets continue their downslide as fears of the new coronavirus (Covid-19) abound. In midday trading as of Feb. 28, the S&P 500 is down 13.09% from the previous week, marking the fastest correction since the financial crisis in 2008.

隨着2月份接近尾聲,美國市場繼續下跌,因為人們對新冠狀病毒(Covid-19)的擔憂不斷。截至2月28日的午盤交易中,標準普爾500指數較前一週下跌13.09%,這是自2008年金融危機以來調整最快的一次。

While stock prices inevitably take a hit during market corrections and recessions, their underlying companies may not all suffer as much as the general investing public fears. For example, people may buy fewer luxury goods in financially lean times, but few (if any) are going to stop buying essentials like food, toothpaste and toilet paper.

雖然股票價格不可避免地會在市場調整和衰退期間受到衝擊,但它們的潛在公司可能不會像一般投資公眾所擔心的那樣遭受同樣大的損失。例如,在經濟拮据的時候,人們購買奢侈品的數量可能會減少,但很少有人(如果有的話)會停止購買食品、牙膏和衞生紙等必需品。

Warning! GuruFocus has detected 5 Warning Signs with JNJ. Click here to check it out.

警告!GuruFocus與JNJ共檢測到5個警告信號。點擊這裏查看。

JNJ 30-Year Financial Data

JNJ 30年財務數據

The intrinsic value of JNJ

JNJ的內在價值

Peter Lynch Chart of JNJ

JNJ的彼得·林奇圖

Each company has its own unique set of advantages and disadvantages, but in general, a stock is more immune to declining economic conditions if it has a good balance sheet, is valued fairly, supplies essential products that need to be frequently purchased and has little or no connection to whichever factors triggered said declining economic conditions.

每家公司都有自己獨特的優勢和劣勢,但一般而言,如果一隻股票擁有良好的資產負債表、估值公平、供應需要頻繁購買的基本產品,並且與任何引發衰退的經濟狀況幾乎或根本沒有關係,那麼它就更不會受到經濟狀況惡化的影響。

Good balance sheet

良好的資產負債表

Debt is cheap in the U.S. It's been that way since the financial crisis in 2008, when the Federal Reserve lowered interest rates to stimulate the flagging economy. When the economy strengthened, the Fed kept on lowering interest rates in order to stave off the next crisis for as long as possible, which sent companies on a decade-long debt binge that has destroyed their balance sheets.

美國的債務很便宜,自2008年金融危機以來一直如此,當時美聯儲(FederalReserve)降低了利率,以刺激萎靡不振的經濟。當經濟走強時,美聯儲繼續降低利率,以儘可能長時間地避免下一次危機,這使得企業陷入了長達十年的債務狂潮,破壞了它們的資產負債表。

When debt is cheap, it's easy to get caught in the trap of borrowing as much as you can in order to make your business prosper. Even if your business prospers, however, it might not be enough to make ends meet, in which case you can just take on more cheap debt in order to pay the bills. This is why the balance sheets of U.S. companies are looking worse than ever, and it is also why increasing numbers of billion-dollar investment firms are taking huge stakes in companies that they would have rejected decades ago for being free cash flow negative.

當債務便宜的時候,你很容易陷入舉債的陷阱,為了讓你的生意興旺起來。然而,即使你的生意興旺,也不足以維持收支平衡,在這種情況下,你就可以承擔更多的廉價債務來支付賬單。這就是為什麼美國公司的資產負債表看起來比以往任何時候都糟糕,也是為什麼越來越多的數以十億美元計的投資公司在幾十年前因為自由現金流為負值而拒絕入股的原因。

The problem here is that debt acts as leverage. When a company prospers, borrowing money can multiply profits, but as soon as the market takes a sharp enough turn for the worse, that borrowed money will multiply losses instead. One of the best examples of this is the collapse of the subprime mortgage market that triggered the Great Recession, in which the ownership of debt that had been so profitable in the past sent giants like Lehman Brothers and Washington Mutual straight to Chapter 11 bankruptcy.

這裏的問題是債務起到槓桿作用。當一家公司生意興隆時,借錢可以使利潤成倍增長,但一旦市場急劇轉壞,借來的錢反而會使虧損倍增。這方面最好的例子之一是次級抵押貸款市場的崩潰,它引發了大衰退。在這場危機中,過去利潤豐厚的債務所有權,使得雷曼兄弟(Lehman Brothers)和華盛頓互惠銀行(Washington Interactive)等巨頭直接破產。

Thus, the companies that will see their profits take the least hits during market downturns are those whose balance sheets are in good shape. An easy way to find such companies is to utilize GuruFocus'sAll-in-One Screener, a Premium feature, which allows users to screen for companies based on factors such as interest coverage, cash-debt ratio, Altman Z-score, financial strength rating and more.

因此,在市場低迷時期,那些資產負債表狀況良好的公司,其利潤受到的衝擊最小。要找到這樣的公司,一個簡單的方法是利用GuruFocus‘sAll-in-One Screener,這是一個高級功能,允許用户根據利率覆蓋範圍、現金負債率、Altman Z評分、財務實力評級等因素來篩選公司。

One example of a company with good financial strength is Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ), a major drug manufacturer and supplier of consumer health products, which has a GuruFocus financial strength score of 7 out of 10. The cash-debt ratio of 0.61 is above average for the industry, while the interest coverage of 63.14% indicates the company has plenty of funds to pay interest on its debt. The current ratio of 1.26 means that it can pay off short-term debt, while the Altman Z-score of 4.25 indicates longer-term financial stability.

強生(紐約證券交易所市場代碼:JNJ)是一家擁有良好財務實力的公司。強生是一家主要的藥品製造商和消費者健康產品供應商,其GuruFocus財務實力得分為十分之七。該行業的現金負債率為0.61,高於行業平均水平,而63.14%的利息覆蓋率表明,該公司有足夠的資金支付債務利息。目前1.26的比率意味着它可以償還短期債務,而Altman Z得分為4.25表示金融長期穩定。

Valued fairly

價值公平

Another factor that can leverage losses during market downturns is overvaluation. When stocks are trading higher than what their underlying companies are worth, they are more likely to see their share prices take a significant hit as the optimism that they were built on crumbles.

另一個能在市場低迷時期影響損失的因素是估值過高。當股票的交易價格高於其潛在公司的價值時,他們更有可能看到自己的股價受到重大打擊,因為他們對股價的樂觀情緒是建立在崩潰的基礎上的。

Take Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA), for example. The electric vehicle and clean energy company skyrocketed to infamy in the investing world after posting its second consecutive quarter of net profits for the fourth quarter of 2019. Speculators bid shares up from $300 to over $900 in less than two months, only to see them trade down to around $650 on worries that the coronavirus-related closure of the company's Shanghai Gigafactory will push net income back into the red.

以特斯拉公司為例。(納斯達克市場:TSLA),例如。這家電動汽車和清潔能源公司在2019年第四季度連續第二個季度實現淨利潤後,在投資界大聲疾呼。投機者在不到兩個月的時間內將股價從300美元漲至900美元以上,但由於擔心與冠狀病毒相關的關停上海嘉漢林業(Shanghai Gigafacori)將使淨利潤再次出現虧損,他們的股價跌至650美元左右。

The foundation of value investing is to not buy shares of a company if they are trading above their intrinsic value, a metric which can sometimes be difficult to assess. The price-earnings ratio is often considered the rule of thumb, but there are many exceptions. For example, cyclical companies such as Ford Motor Co. (NYSE:F) and other automobile manufacturers often trade near their lowest price-earnings ratios right before the end of a cyclical upswing.

價值投資的基礎是,如果一家公司的股票高於其內在價值,則不購買它們的股票,這是一種有時很難評估的指標。市盈率通常被認為是經驗法則,但也有許多例外.例如,福特汽車公司(FordMotorCo.)等週期性公司。紐約證券交易所(NYSE:F)和其他汽車製造商通常在週期性上漲結束前,市盈率接近最低水平。

One sign of an impending market correction is the overvaluation of the stock market in general. As the U.S. economy has climbed toward a record overvalued range on the wings of cheap debt, finding stocks that are trading near or below their intrinsic value has become more difficult.

市場回調即將來臨的一個跡象是,股市總體估值過高。隨着美國經濟在廉價債券的推動下攀升至創紀錄的高估區間,尋找接近或低於其內在價值的股票變得更加困難。

Even renowned value investorWarren Buffett(Trades,Portfolio)has been sitting on a cash pile of $128 billion for the past year due to the lack of big value opportunities. "Prices are sky-high for businesses possessing decent long-term prospects," Buffett wrote in his 2019 annual letter to shareholders.

就連著名的價值投資者沃倫·巴菲特(Trades,Portfolio),由於缺乏巨大的價值機會,在過去的一年裏也坐擁1,280億美元的現金儲備。巴菲特在給股東的2019年年度信中寫道:“對於那些有着良好的長期前景的企業來説,價格是極高的。”

A potential U.S. value opportunity could be Biogen (NASDAQ:BIIB), a biotech company that develops drugs for the treatment of neurological and neurodegenerative diseases and disorders. It has a GuruFocus valuation rating of 8 out of 10 and, according to the Peter Lynch chart, the stock is trading below what its earnings are worth.

生物原(NASDAQ:BIIB)是一家開發治療神經和神經退行性疾病和疾病的藥物的生物技術公司。該公司的GuruFocus估值為十分之八,根據彼得·林奇(PeterLynch)的圖表,其股價低於其盈利水平。

Essential products

基本產品

Perhaps the most reliable predictor of steady profits is when a company sells products that customers must buy regularly, either out of necessity or in order to keep up a basic standard of living quality. No matter how bad the economy gets, people are unable to stop buying food and extremely unlikely to give up things like toothpaste, toilet paper and soap.

也許,穩定利潤的最可靠的預測指標是,一家公司銷售客户必須定期購買的產品,無論是出於必要,還是為了維持基本的生活質量。無論經濟變得多麼糟糕,人們都無法停止購買食物,而且極不可能放棄牙膏、衞生紙和肥皂之類的東西。

Companies in this space tend to have strong financials as well, with the exception of food companies. Johnson & Johnson and Procter & Gamble (NYSE:PG), which both sell a wide variety of daily necessities, both have high financial strength ratings from GuruFocus.

這一領域的公司往往也有強勁的財務狀況,但食品公司除外。強生公司(Johnson&Johnson)和寶潔公司(Procter&Gamble,紐約證券交易所市場代碼:PG)都銷售各種各樣的日用品,這兩家公司都獲得了GuruFocus的高財務實力評級。

The packaged foods industry can also provide a source of stable, recession-proof stocks. General Mills (NYSE:GIS), for example, saw its revenue grow steadily through the past three recessions.

包裝食品行業也可以提供一個穩定的,經濟衰退的庫存來源。例如,通用磨坊(紐約證券交易所市場代碼:GIS)在過去三次衰退中收入穩步增長。

Though not a physical product, the services of payment processing companies like Mastercard (NYSE:MA), Visa (NYSE:V) and PayPal (NASDAQ:PYPL) can also be defined as essential for the U.S. It's easier to pay with a card than cash, and online purchases almost always must be made by card. However, it should be noted that in the case of a full-blown recession, it is possible that any increase in profits may be mitigated by consumers spending less money overall. While this did not happen to Mastercard or Visa during the last recession, it becomes more of a possibility as a higher percentage of payments are processed electronically.

雖然不是實體產品,但Mastercard(紐約證券交易所市場代碼:Ma)、Visa(紐約證券交易所市場代碼:V)和PayPal(納斯達克市場代碼:PYPL)等支付處理公司的服務也可以被定義為對美國至關重要。用信用卡支付比用現金更容易,在線購物幾乎總是必須通過信用卡進行。然而,應該指出的是,在全面衰退的情況下,任何利潤的增長都有可能因消費者整體消費減少而減少。雖然在上一次衰退期間,萬事達或維薩沒有發生這種情況,但隨着電子支付比例的提高,這種可能性更大。

No connection to triggers

沒有與觸發器的連接

Lastly, whenever trouble starts to boil in the economy, it's typically best to stay out of investments that have a significant stake in whatever triggered the problems, at least until more information becomes available. When the situation is still unclear, it is easier to make a miscalculation.

最後,每當經濟問題開始激化時,通常最好是避開那些與引發問題的因素有重大利害關係的投資,至少在獲得更多信息之前是這樣。當情況尚不明朗時,更容易作出錯誤估計。

On the surface level, we see that far fewer people were buying tech stocks after the dotcom bubble burst, and no one wanted bank stocks after the mortgage crisis. With the outbreak of the new coronavirus, investors are now pulling their money out of the stocks of companies that have supply chains in China, including giants like Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) and Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT).

從表面上看,在互聯網泡沫破裂後,購買科技股的人要少得多,而且在抵押貸款危機之後,沒有人想買銀行股。隨着新冠狀病毒(Coronavirus)的爆發,投資者現在正從中國有供應鏈的公司的股票中撤出資金,其中包括蘋果(Apple)和微軟(Microsoft)等巨頭。

However, many companies that are not so clearly connected could also suffer. Fears of an epidemic bring an increased reluctance to travel, which will negatively impact the profits of companies who rely on travelers for their income. Cruise ship operator Carnival Corp. (NYSE:CCL), for example, expects to see decreased revenue due to port closures in Asia. It may also face additional expenses if it is forced to quarantine one or more of its ships due to an infected passenger.

然而,許多沒有明確聯繫的公司也可能受到影響。對流行病的恐懼導致人們越來越不願意去旅行,這將對那些依靠旅行者賺取收入的公司的利潤產生負面影響。遊輪運營商嘉年華公司例如,紐約證券交易所(NYSE:CCL)預計,由於亞洲港口關閉,收入將減少。如果由於一名受感染的乘客被迫對一艘或多艘船隻進行檢疫,它也可能面臨額外費用。

"While not currently planned, if the company had to suspend all of its operations in Asia through the end of April, this would impact its fiscal 2020 financial performance by $0.55 to $0.65 per share, which includes guest compensation," a Carnival representative said in a statement.

嘉年華的一位代表在一份聲明中表示:“雖然目前沒有計劃,但如果該公司不得不在4月底之前暫停在亞洲的所有業務,這將影響其2020財年的財務業績,每股0.55美元至0.65美元,其中包括客人薪酬。”

The U.S. and Chinese economies are highly interconnected, perhaps more so than many people realize, making it difficult to find large-cap U.S. stocks that do not rely on China for a significant amount of their production or profits. In addition, if the virus begins to spread in the U.S., and if the U.S. also reacts by shutting down significant portions of its economy, this point may become null.

中美兩國的經濟是高度相互關聯的,也許比許多人意識到的還要多,這使得我們很難找到不依賴中國獲得大量生產或利潤的美國大盤股。此外,如果病毒開始在美國蔓延,如果美國也通過關閉其經濟的很大一部分而作出反應,那麼這一點可能成為無效。

Thus, it is best to look for stocks that will not be as negatively affected by shutdowns and decreases in face-to-face customer interaction. One such company is American Tower Corp. (NYSE:AMT), which is down only 0.9% following coronavirus outbreak. American Tower is a real estate investment trust that owns cell phone towers and other communication infrastructure real estate, and it derives its revenue from the continued use of its properties for communication services.

因此,最好是尋找不會受到關閉和減少的負面影響的股票面對面的客户互動。這樣的公司之一是美國塔公司。(紐約證券交易所市場代碼:AMT),在冠狀病毒爆發後僅下降0.9%。美國塔是一個房地產投資信託基金,擁有手機塔和其他通信基礎設施房地產,它的收入來自繼續使用其財產用於通信服務。

Payment processing companies such as Mastercard also fit into this category. If anything, the online payments processing industry is likely to get a boost if people become more reluctant to leave their homes due to virus-related fears.

Mastercard等支付處理公司也屬於這一類。如果有人因為與病毒有關的擔憂而變得更不願意離開自己的家,那麼在線支付處理行業可能會得到提振。

Disclosure: Author owns no shares in any of the stocks mentioned. The mention of stocks in this article does not at any point constitute an investment recommendation. Investors should always conduct their own careful research or consult registered investment advisors before taking action in the stock market.

披露:作者不持有上述任何一種股票的股份。本條中提到的股票在任何時候都不構成投資建議。在股票市場採取行動之前,投資者應該進行自己的仔細研究或諮詢註冊投資顧問。

Read more here:

在這裏閲讀更多:

Occidental Petroleum Reports Mixed 4th-Quarter Results

西方石油報告第四季度業績喜憂參半

4 Giants See Stocks Plummet on Coronavirus Warnings

4巨人隊因冠狀病毒警告股價大跌

Boeing and T-Mobile's Credit Set to Follow in Kraft Heinz's Footsteps

波音公司和T-Mobile公司將追隨卡夫·海因茨的腳步

Not a Premium Member of GuruFocus? Sign up for a free 7-day trial here.

不是GuruFocus的高級成員嗎?在這裏註冊免費的7天試用。

This article first appeared onGuruFocus.

這篇文章第一次出現在GuruFocus上。

Warning! GuruFocus has detected 5 Warning Signs with JNJ. Click here to check it out.

警告!GuruFocus與JNJ共檢測到5個警告信號。點擊這裏查看。

JNJ 30-Year Financial Data

JNJ 30年財務數據

The intrinsic value of JNJ

JNJ的內在價值

Peter Lynch Chart of JNJ

JNJ的彼得·林奇圖

譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。


以上內容僅用作資訊或教育之目的,不構成與富途相關的任何投資建議。富途竭力但無法保證上述全部內容的真實性、準確性和原創性。
    搶先評論