Walmart earnings preview: A short holiday season likely put the squeeze on results
Walmart earnings preview: A short holiday season likely put the squeeze on results
MW Walmart earnings preview: A short holiday season likely put the squeeze on results
MW沃爾瑪盈利預覽：一個短暫的假期季節可能會給業績帶來壓力。
By Tonya Garcia, MarketWatch
託尼亞·加西亞(Tonya Garcia)，MarketWatch
Walmart stock has slipped 3% over the last three months
沃爾瑪的股票在過去三個月裏下跌了3%。
The shortened holiday shopping season may have put the squeeze on Walmart Inc.'s quarterly results, according to analysts.
分析師稱，假日購物季的縮短可能給沃爾瑪公司(Walmart Inc.)的季度業績帶來了壓力。
Walmart (WMT) is scheduled to report fiscal fourth-quarter earnings on Tuesday before the opening bell. It is also hosting its investor community meeting on that day.
沃爾瑪(Walmart)定於週二開盤前公佈第四季度財報。該公司還將在當天主辦投資者社區會議。
The 2019 holiday season had six fewer shopping days (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/with-six-fewer-holiday-season-shopping-days-theres-no-time-for-impulse-purchases-which-is-bad-for-retail-2019-11-19) than usual, which experts and retailers expected would hurt sales overall. One major Walmart competitor, Target Corp. (TGT) , has already said that the challenges were bigger than expected (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/targets-holiday-weakness-in-electronics-drags-down-best-buys-stock-2020-01-15).
2019年假期的(http://www.marketwatch.com/story/with-six-fewer-holiday-season-shopping-days-theres-no-time-for-impulse-purchases-which-is-bad-for-retail-2019-11-19)比往常少了6個交易日，專家和零售商預計這會影響整體銷售。沃爾瑪的一個主要競爭對手，塔吉特公司。已經説過，(http://www.marketwatch.com/story/targets-holiday-weakness-in-electronics-drags-down-best-buys-stock-2020-01-15).面臨的挑戰比預期的要大。
"While we continue to believe that Walmart is taking share in grocery, the mixed datapoints on the discretionary side plus the noise from a shortened holiday lead us to take a more conservative approach to our +2.1% U.S. comp forecast," wrote analysts led by Kelly Bania at BMO Capital Markets.
BMO資本市場(BMO Capital Markets)的凱利·巴尼亞(Kelly Bania)領導的分析師寫道：“雖然我們仍然相信沃爾瑪正在佔據食品雜貨店的份額，但自由裁量權方面的混合數據加上假期縮短帶來的噪音，導致我們對美國商品價格上漲2.1%的預測採取了更為保守的做法。”
The datapoints include the Mastercard SpendingPulse analysis saying U.S. retail sales grew 3.4% over the holiday season while the National Retail Federation said growth was 4.1% and NPD Group said it was 0.2%.
包括Mastercard SpendingPulse分析在內的數據顯示，美國的零售銷售在假日期間增長了3.4%，而全國零售聯合會(NationalRetail Federation)則表示增長4.1%，NPD集團(NPD Group)則表示增長0.2%。
Read:E-commerce surge sparks questions about reliability of same-store sales metric (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/e-commerce-surge-sparks-questions-about-reliability-of-same-store-sales-metric-2020-01-28)
閲讀：電子商務的激增引發了關於同店銷售度量(http://www.marketwatch.com/story/e-commerce-surge-sparks-questions-about-reliability-of-same-store-sales-metric-2020-01-28)的可靠性的疑問。
The FactSet consensus for comp, or same-store sales growth, is 2.8%.
對於Comp或同店銷售增長的FactSet共識是2.8%.
BMO rates Walmart shares outperform with a $140 price target.
BMO對沃爾瑪股價的估值超過了140美元的目標價。
Instinet also reduced its comparable sales forecast to 2.4% growth based on the headwinds analysts identified from the quarter.
根據分析師們從本季度發現的不利因素，Instiner還將其相應的銷售預期下調至2.4%。
"These include unfavorable winter weather and a solid, but not spectacular, shorter selling period seemingly having a bigger impact than most expected," analysts led by Michael Baker said.
邁克爾·貝克(MichaelBaker)領導的分析師表示：“這些因素包括不利的冬季天氣和穩定但不太壯觀的短期拋售期，似乎影響比大多數人預期的要大。”
Walmart is also lapping a 40-basis-point SNAP (Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program) benefit from the government shutdown, Instinet said.
Instiner説，沃爾瑪還將從政府停擺中受益於40個基點的SNAP(補充營養援助計劃).
Instinet rates Walmart stock buy with a $132 price target.
Instiner以132美元的目標價格對沃爾瑪的股票進行定價。
Credit Suisse notes that the shorter holiday season was painful for all mass merchants.
瑞士信貸(CreditSuisse)指出，較短的假期對所有商家來説都是痛苦的。
"[W]e expect comps to reaccelerate in Q1, but we still see earnings-per-share growth constrained in fiscal 2021 by investments, Flipkart and other cost pressures," analysts led by Seth Sigman wrote.
"[W]e預計公司在第一季度將重新加速增長，但我們仍然認為2021財政年度的每股收益增長受到投資、flipkart和其他成本壓力的制約，“塞思西格曼(Seth Sigman)領導的分析師寫道。
Credit Suisse rates Walmart stock neutral with a $115 price target.
瑞士信貸(CreditSuisse)將沃爾瑪股票評級為中性，目標價格為115美元。
Walmart has an average overweight stock rating and average target price of $129.40, according to a FactSet survey of 32 analysts.
一項針對32名分析師的FactSet調查顯示，沃爾瑪股票平均評級偏高，平均目標價為129.40美元。
See:Coronavirus could drive up out-of-stocks at stores by April: Wells Fargo (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/coronavirus-could-drive-up-out-of-stocks-at-stores-by-april-wells-fargo-2020-02-11)
見：冠狀病毒可能會在4月份前導致商店的庫存減少：富國銀行(WellsFargo(http://www.marketwatch.com/story/coronavirus-could-drive-up-out-of-stocks-at-stores-by-april-wells-fargo-2020-02-11))
(https://youtu.be/suVwYyIe1nY)
(https://youtu.be/suVwYyIe1nY))
Here are other items to watch for when Walmart reports:
以下是沃爾瑪報告時要注意的其他事項：
Earnings: FactSet is guiding for fourth-quarter earnings per share of $1.44, up from $1.41 last year.
收益：FactSet的第四季度每股收益為1.44美元，高於去年的1.41美元。
Estimize, which crowdsources estimates from sell-side and buy-side analysts, hedge-fund managers, executives, academics and others, is forecasting EPS of $1.47.
眾消息人士估計，來自賣方和買方分析師、對衝基金經理、高管、學者和其他人士的估計，Estimize預計每股收益將達到1.47美元。
Walmart has beat the FactSet EPS consensus every quarter, except for one, going back to October 2015.
沃爾瑪(Walmart)每個季度都打破了FactSet每股收益的共識，但其中一個除外，可以追溯到2015年10月。
Revenue: The FactSet outlook is for revenue of $142.54 billion, up from $138.80 billion the prior year.
收入：FactSet的預期收入為1，425.4億美元，高於上一年的1，388.8億美元。
The Estimize consensus is for revenue of $143.28 billion.
“估計”的共識是收入為1，432.8億美元。
Walmart missed the FactSet revenue forecast two out of the last three quarters.
沃爾瑪錯過了FactSet在過去三個季度中的兩個季度收入預測。
Stock price: Walmart stock has fallen 2.7% over the past three months, but is up 19.2% over the past year.
股價：沃爾瑪股票在過去三個月裏下跌了2.7%，但在過去的一年裏卻上漲了19.2%。
The Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR exchange-traded fund (XLY) is up 20.7% over the past year, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average has gained 15.7%.
消費者自由選擇部門SPDR交易所交易基金(XLY)去年上漲20.7%，道瓊斯工業平均指數(DowJonesIndustrialAverage)上漲15.7%。
Other items:
其他項目：
-- Walmart has shut down Jetblack and will lay off 293 employees, which accounts for most of the service's staff, according to a report from The Wall Street Journal (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/walmart-to-shut-down-jetblack-shopping-service-2020-02-13).
--據“華爾街日報”(Wall Street Journal(http://www.marketwatch.com/story/walmart-to-shut-down-jetblack-shopping-service-2020-02-13).)的一篇報道，沃爾瑪已經關閉了捷黑，並將解僱293名員工，這是該服務的大部分員工。
Jetblack was the personal shopping service from Jet.com, the e-commerce site that Walmart purchased for $3.3 billion in 2016. Jet.com is meant to focus on urban shoppers.
捷黑色是來自jet.com的個人購物服務，jet.com是沃爾瑪2016年以33億美元收購的電子商務網站。Jet.com旨在關注城市購物者。
Walmart had already announced that it was absorbing Jet.com staff (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/walmart-to-absorb-jetcom-staff-into-its-e-commerce-business-2019-06-12) into the broader operations.
沃爾瑪已經宣佈，它將把Jet.com的員工(http://www.marketwatch.com/story/walmart-to-absorb-jetcom-staff-into-its-e-commerce-business-2019-06-12)吸收到更廣泛的業務中去。
Also:Shopify price target soar after earnings (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/shopify-price-targets-soar-after-earnings-2020-02-13)
同時：市盈率(http://www.marketwatch.com/story/shopify-price-targets-soar-after-earnings-2020-02-13)後股價目標飆升
-- Investors are looking for Walmart's digital business to grow profitably.
--投資者正在尋找沃爾瑪的數字業務，以實現盈利增長。
"Investors have been patient with the company for several years, and we think if commentary underwhelms, shares may be pressured in the near-term," wrote Cowen analysts.
Cowen分析師寫道：“投資者對該公司已經耐心了幾年，我們認為，如果評論意見不高，股票可能在短期內受到壓力。”
Media reports (https://www.vox.com/recode/2019/7/3/18716431/walmart-jet-marc-lore-modcloth-amazon-ecommerce-losses-online-sales) from last summer projected e-commerce losses of $1 billion for 2019.
據媒體報道，去年夏天的(https://www.vox.com/recode/2019/7/3/18716431/walmart-jet-marc-lore-modcloth-amazon-ecommerce-losses-online-sales)預計2019年的電子商務損失將達到10億美元。
Despite the e-commerce hurdle, Cowen is still upbeat about Walmart.
儘管電子商務存在障礙，考恩仍對沃爾瑪持樂觀態度。
"We continue to view Walmart as one of the best positioned retailers with strong offensive and defensive characteristics," analysts said. "The company continues to drive strong comps which we believe are sustainable on physical and digital progress."
分析師表示：“我們繼續將沃爾瑪視為具有強大進攻性和防禦性的最佳零售商之一。”“該公司繼續推出強大的公司，我們認為這些公司在物質和數字方面的進步是可持續的。”
Cowen rates Walmart stock outperform with a $140 price target.
考恩認為沃爾瑪股票的表現超過了140美元的目標價格。
Don't miss:These are the first 31 stores, in 19 states, identified among Macy's 125 planned closures (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/here-are-the-31-macys-stores-in-19-states-closing-so-far-2020-02-06)
別錯過：這是梅西百貨計劃關閉的125個(http://www.marketwatch.com/story/here-are-the-31-macys-stores-in-19-states-closing-so-far-2020-02-06)中首批31個分店，分佈在19個州。
-- The guidance will be key.
-指導將是關鍵。
"Our sense is that the stock reaction from here will have less to do with fourth quarter than with the outlook for next year," wrote John Zolidis, president of Quo Vadis.
“我們的感覺是，從這裏開始，股市的反應與其説與第四季度有關，不如説與明年的前景有關，”科·瓦迪斯總裁約翰·佐利迪斯(John Zolidis)寫道。
"In particular, a key question (or perhaps the key question) is not if sales growth can continue, which most analysts are assuming, but rather whether Walmart can translate higher revenues into [earnings before interest and taxes] margin improvement. This has not been the case for some time."
“特別是，一個關鍵問題(或許是關鍵問題)不是銷售增長能否繼續(大多數分析師都這樣認為)，而是沃爾瑪能否將更高的收入轉化為更高的收入。[利息和税前收入]提高保證金。這種情況已經有一段時間沒有了。“
Zolidis is forecasting that automation, efficiencies and reduced investment pressure will help the bottom line. Quo Vadis rates Walmart stock buy.
Zolidis預測自動化、效率和減少的投資壓力將有助於實現利潤。QuationVadis認為沃爾瑪的股票是買入的。
-Tonya Garcia; 415-439-6400; AskNewswires@dowjones.com
-Tonya Garcia；415-439-6400；AskNewswres@dowjones.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
(完)道瓊斯通訊社
February 14, 2020 10:34 ET (15:34 GMT)
2020年2月14日10：34(格林尼治時間15：34)
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