share_log

3 Stocks That Could See a Short Squeeze

3 Stocks That Could See a Short Squeeze

3 股可能看到短期擠壓的股票
InvestorPlace ·  2020/01/21 19:16

In a short squeeze, traders who have sold a stock short are forced to scramble. A rising share price leads those short sellers to buy shares to cover their positions. That demand can lead to a spiral higher: more shorts look to cover or face margin calls, leading to more buys and an even higher price.

在一次空頭擠壓中,賣空一隻股票的交易員被迫爭先恐後。股價上漲導致這些賣空者買入股票以回補頭寸。這種需求可能會導致螺旋式上漲:更多的空頭希望回補或面臨追加保證金通知,從而導致更多的買入和更高的價格。

The most famous short squeeze in recent years — and maybe ever — actually was engineered by Porsche (OTCMKTS: POAHY ). In 2008, amid the financial crisis, Porscheused derivativesto corner the market in Volkswagen (OTCMKTS: VWAGY ). The short squeeze was so intense that Volkswagen briefly became the world’s most valuable company.

最近幾年最著名的空頭擠壓--也許是有史以來--實際上是由保時捷(OTCMKTS:POAHY)。2008年,在金融危機期間,保時捷利用衍生品壟斷了市場大眾(OTCMKTS:VWAGY)。空頭壓力如此之大,以至於大眾汽車短暫地成為世界上市值最高的公司。

Most squeezes are more rudimentary in nature, simply adding to potential gains as good news arrives. Recent rallies in Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA ), Nio (NYSE: NIO ), and Luckin Coffee (NYSE: LK ) likely all have been boosted by short squeezes, even if fundamental factors have contributed as well.

大多數擠壓在本質上都比較初級,只是隨着好消息的到來而增加了潛在的收益。最近在中國的反彈 特斯拉 (納斯達克:特斯拉),蔚來(紐約證券交易所: 蔚來 ),以及 瑞幸咖啡 (紐約證券交易所:路克)很可能所有這些都是受到空頭擠壓的提振,儘管基本面因素也起到了作用。

InvestorPlace - Stock Market News, Stock Advice & Trading Tips

InvestorPlace-股票市場新聞、股票建議和交易提示

There are more names out there that could benefit from such a squeeze, including the following three stocks. But it’s important to remember that short squeezes aren’t necessarily long-term catalysts and that high short interest alone doesn’t make a stock a buy. Shorts, after all, get it right sometimes. Squeezes can’t and don’t come if a stock doesn’t make a fundamental move higher.

有更多的公司可能會從這種擠壓中受益,包括以下三隻股票。但重要的是要記住,做空並不一定是長期催化劑,單靠空頭股數的高價位並不能讓一隻股票成為買入。畢竟,短褲有時會做得對。如果一隻股票不能從根本上走高,就不會出現擠壓。

10 Cheap Stocks to Buy Under $10

10只10美元以下的廉價股票

Indeed, these three stocks aren’t guaranteed to see a squeeze. But the potential exists. Shorts are betting heavily against these stocks and good news could be on the way.

事實上,這三隻股票並不一定會受到擠壓。但潛力是存在的。空頭大舉做空這些股票,好消息可能即將到來。

Tanger Factory Outlet (SKT)

丹吉爾工廠門店(SKT)

Real estate investment trust Tanger Factory Outlet (NYSE: SKT ) could see a squeeze driven not by performance, but by market factors. SKT stock has declined over 60% from late 2016 highs. But its dividend has held up, in fact seeing raises in each of the last three years.

房地產投資信託基金丹吉爾工廠門店(紐約證券交易所:SKT)可能會出現擠壓,不是由業績驅動的,而是由市場因素驅動的。SKT的股價已經從2016年末的高點下跌了60%以上。但它的股息一直保持不變,事實上,在過去三年裏,它的股息每年都在增加。

20200123160358381d235aw7xe1xytt8

Source: Ritu Manoj Jethani / Shutterstock.com

來源:Ritu Manoj Jethani/舒特斯托克.com

That combination has increased SKT’s dividend yield to over 9%. Meanwhile, the SPDR S&P Dividend ETF (NYSEARCA: SDY ) is based on an index that weights its components by dividend yield. And so as SKT stock has fallen, the ETF has acquired more shares. At the moment, SDYowns 20.7 million Tanger shares— over 22% of the company.

這一組合將SKT的股息收益率提高到了9%以上。同時,SPDR標準普爾股息ETF(NYSEArca:SDY)是基於一個指數,該指數按股息率對其組成部分進行加權。因此,隨着SKT股價下跌,該ETF獲得了更多股票。目前,SDY擁有2070萬股Tanger股票,佔公司股份的22%以上。

There’s another problem, asBloomberg’sMatt Levinedetailed last week(others have noted key parts of the story as well). SDY has a fund rule that it can’t own a stock with a market capitalization under $1.5 billion. Tanger is under that line at the moment, with a market cap of $1.43 billion. And so the ETF likely has to exit the stake in its entirety by Jan. 31. That forced selling would swamp existing demand for shares, and potentially could send SKT stock down even further.

正如彭博社的馬特·萊文上週詳細描述的那樣,還有另一個問題(其他人也注意到了故事的關鍵部分)。SDY有一條基金規定,它不能持有市值低於15億美元的股票。目前,Tanger的市值為14.3億美元,處於這條線以下。因此,ETF可能不得不在1月31日之前全部退出所持股份。這種被迫拋售將淹沒現有的股票需求,並可能導致SKT股價進一步下跌。

But there’s a catch, as Levinenoted on ThursdayviaBloomberg Intelligence. Fund sponsor State Street has to call in the shares it’s lent to short sellers, which actually could create asqueeze. SKT stock gained 10% on Jan. 8, perhaps in anticipation of that squeeze, though it has receded since.

但有一個問題,正如萊文諾週四在彭博情報頻道(Bloomberg Intelligence)上所説的那樣。基金髮起人道富銀行必須收回借給賣空者的股票,這實際上可能會造成拋售。SKT的股價在1月8日上漲了10%,可能是因為預計會出現這種擠壓,儘管此後股價有所回落。

Trading SKT in the near term seems best for those with experience, as the stock likely will be volatile. But with a stunning 58% of the float sold short, there’s real potential for a squeeze. Meanwhile, Tanger’s dividend yield and low valuation relative to FFO (funds from operations) make it an intriguing value play, as Aaron Levittargued last year. The next two weeks will be eventful and could present an opportunity.

短期內交易SKT似乎最適合那些有經驗的人,因為該股可能會波動。但令人震驚的是,58%的流通股被賣空,這是一個真正的擠壓潛力。與此同時,Tanger的股息收益率和相對於FFO(運營資金)的較低估值使其成為一種耐人尋味的價值選擇,正如亞倫·萊維塔格去年所説的那樣。接下來的兩週將是多事之秋,可能會提供一個機會。

Restoration Hardware (RH)

恢復硬件(RH)

20200123160421271d235tm8tir3tfh3

Source: Andriy Blokhin / Shutterstock.com

來源:Andriy Blokhin/Shutterstock.com

Furniture retailer RH (NYSE: RH ) seemingly has made sport of targeting short sellers in the past few years. The company has used buybacks, including accelerated repurchases, to drive its share price higher.

傢俱零售商Rh(紐約證券交易所:Rh)似乎在過去幾年裏拿賣空者當靶子。該公司通過回購,包括加速回購,推高了股價。

Performance has been impressive as well: adjusted EPS increased 180% in fiscal 2018 (ending early February 2019) and is guided up 46-48% in fiscal 2019. Buybacks have driven some of that growth, but RH also has seen steady revenue increases and expanding margins.

業績也令人印象深刻:2018財年(截至2019年2月初),調整後每股收益增長180%,2019財年增長46%-48%。回購推動了部分增長,但RH的收入也穩步增長,利潤率不斷擴大。

7 Small-Cap Stocks That Are Not Worth a Second Glance

7只不值得一看的小盤股

But short sellers haven’t given up on the trade. Over 34% of the float remains sold short. That seems unwise. RH still trades at a reasonable 16x forward price-to-earnings multiple. Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK.A ,NYSE: BRK.B ) hastaken a 6.5% stakein the company. And history suggests the short side is the wrong side of this trade. Fourth quarter earnings, likely arriving in late March, could be the next catalyst for yet another squeeze.

但賣空者並未放棄這筆交易。超過34%的流通股仍被賣空。這似乎是不明智的。RH的預期市盈率仍為合理的16倍。 伯克希爾哈撒韋 (紐約證券交易所:BRK.A,紐約證券交易所:BRK.B)匆忙持有該公司6.5%的股份。歷史表明,在這筆交易中,空頭一方是錯誤的一方。第四季度的收益可能會在3月下旬公佈,這可能是另一次緊縮的下一個催化劑。

Stitch Fix (SFIX)

縫合修復(SFIX)

20200123160430417d235zipc3fawr0s

Source: Sharaf Maksumov / Shutterstock.com

來源:莎拉夫·馬克蘇莫夫/Shutterstock.com

Stitch Fix (NASDAQ: SFIX ) has a little over 42% of its float sold short at the moment. That figure is inflated somewhat by the fact that only about 53% of shares outstanding trade freely, but that thin float can help catalyze a squeeze.

縫合修復(納斯達克:SFIX)目前有略高於42%的流通股被賣空。只有約53%的流通股可以自由交易,這一數字在一定程度上被誇大了,但這麼少的流通股可能有助於催化擠壓。

And SFIX stock does seem like the type of name that could catch a bid in this market. So far, it hasn’t: shares actually are down over the past eighteen months. But it’s a growth name with an attractive valuation on a price-to-revenue basis. A 2020sales target of $2 billionsuggests a barely 1x multiple, backing out the company’s cash on hand (Stitch Fix has no debt). Stitch Fix isn’t cheap on a profit basis, at 100x 2020 consensus earnings per share estimates, but it has the ability to grow into that valuation if the top line cooperates.

而且,SFIX股票看起來確實像是那種可能在這個市場上被競購的名字。到目前為止,它還沒有:在過去的18個月裏,股價實際上在下跌。但這是一個增長中的名字,在市盈率的基礎上具有誘人的估值。2020年的銷售額目標20億美元意味着僅有1倍的市盈率,收回了公司手頭的現金(Sstich Fix沒有債務)。Stich Fix在盈利的基礎上並不便宜,人們普遍認為它的每股收益是2020年的100倍,但它擁有能力如果頂線合作,就能增長到這個估值。

The high short interest admittedly suggests many traders see that revenue growth decelerating. But the bull case here is simple: if Stitch Fix meets its targets, SFIX stock likely rises. It could rise even faster than it otherwise might, as shorts are forced to cover.

誠然,空頭股數的高價位表明,許多交易員認為營收增長正在減速。但看漲的理由很簡單:如果Sstich Fix達到目標,SFIX的股價可能會上漲。隨着空頭被迫回補,它可能會以比其他情況下更快的速度上漲。

As of this writing, Vince Martin has no positions in any securities mentioned.

截至撰寫本文時,文斯·馬丁沒有在文中提到的任何證券中持有頭寸。

More From InvestorPlace

來自InvestorPlace的更多信息

2 Toxic Pot Stocks You Should Avoid

你應該避免的2種有毒罐頭

10 Monthly Dividend Stocks to Buy to Pay the Bills

每月購買10只股息股票以支付賬單

7 Earnings Reports to Watch Next Week

下週值得關注的7份收益報告

7 5G Stocks to Connect Your Portfolio To

連接您的投資組合的7個5G股票

The post3 Stocks That Could See a Short Squeezeappeared first onInvestorPlace.

可能出現空頭擠壓的後3只股票首先出現在InvestorPlace上。

譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。


以上內容僅用作資訊或教育之目的,不構成與富途相關的任何投資建議。富途竭力但無法保證上述全部內容的真實性、準確性和原創性。
    搶先評論