Bed Bath & Beyond is Ready to Rally Under a New CEO, Meryl Witmer Says -- Barrons.com
Bed Bath & Beyond is Ready to Rally Under a New CEO, Meryl Witmer Says -- Barrons.com
DJ Bed Bath & Beyond is Ready to Rally Under a New CEO, Meryl Witmer Says -- Barrons.com
Bed Bath&Beyond DJ Bed Bath&Beyond準備在新CEO的領導下重整旗鼓，梅麗爾·維特默說--Barrons.com
By Meryl Witmer
梅麗爾·維特默著
It's time for the rubber to meet the road. In the latest installment of Barron's annual investment Roundtable , five of our panelists give -- and defend -- their views on specific stocks and other investments.
該是橡膠與路面相遇的時候了。在巴倫年度投資圓桌會議的最新一期中，我們的五名小組成員給出了--並為--他們對特定股票和其他投資的看法。
The Roundtable members spend half of their daylong meeting each January proposing stocks, bonds, and funds that they believe will race ahead or fall on their faces, and this year was no different. There was a clutch of compelling picks, some persuasive pans, and even what one of our newest panelists views as a couple of likely 10-baggers. See the other picks here, and check in next week for the picks and pans of our other five panelists.
每年1月份，圓桌會議成員在為期一天的會議上花了一半的時間提出他們認為會領先或失敗的股票、債券和基金，今年也不例外。有一些令人信服的選擇，一些有說服力的平底鍋，甚至我們的一位最新小組成員認為可能有幾個10個袋子的人。請看這裡的其他選擇，並在下週檢查我們其他五位小組成員的選擇和平底鍋。
Weighing in below is Meryl Witmer of Eagle Capital Partners.
下面是Eagle Capital Partners的梅麗爾·維特默(Meryl Witmer)。
So Meryl, what do you have for us today?
梅麗爾，你今天給我們帶來了什麼？
Meryl Witmer: I don't have a lot. It's pretty slim pickings for the value investor these days. We look at many companies, and the current stock prices are as high -- or higher -- than our target prices a couple of years out.
梅麗爾·維特默：我沒有太多。如今，對於價值投資者來說，這是相當微不足道的。我們觀察了許多公司，目前的股價與我們幾年後的目標價一樣高--甚至更高。
Yet you still found stocks to recommend, including Bed Bath & Beyond.
然而，你仍然找到了值得推薦的股票，包括Bed Bath&Beyond。
Witmer: Bed Bath (ticker: BBBY) was really poorly run. I can't stress that enough. I have some knowledge of what happened there from prior employees and people who worked at competitors. It was really poorly managed. But it has a new CEO, a fantastic CEO at the helm. They've brought in Mark Tritton from Target, and the thesis says he'll implement operational improvements following the successful road map he had at Target.
Witmer：Bed Bath(股票代碼：BBBY)經營得很差。我再怎麼強調也不為過。我從以前的員工和在競爭對手工作的人那裡瞭解到了一些情況。它真的管理得很差。但它有了一位新的首席執行官，一位出色的首席執行官掌舵。他們已經從塔吉特公司請來了梅克·特裡頓，論文說他將根據他在塔吉特公司的成功路線圖來實施運營改進。
What's so great about Tritton?
特裡頓有什麼好的？
Witmer: This is a guy who knows how to build a strong omnichannel retailer. When he went to Target as chief merchandising officer -- the second most important job at a retail company -- Target was not doing so well. His first year, same-store sales went up 1%. The next year, they went up about 5%. And the next year, they went up about 5% again. Before he was at Target, he was at Nordstrom, where he was in charge of the private-label business, and did an absolutely fantastic job. Revenue went up dramatically in that area. He has a real focus on improving merchandise and reducing the cost of private label.
維特默：他知道如何打造一家強大的全方位渠道零售商。當他去塔吉特擔任首席營銷官時--這是一家零售公司的第二重要工作--塔吉特的表現並不是很好。在他上任的第一年，同店銷售額上升了1%。第二年，它們上漲了約5%。第二年，它們又上漲了約5%。在加盟塔吉特之前，他在諾德斯特龍負責自有品牌業務，幹得非常出色。這一領域的收入大幅增長。他真正專注於改進商品和降低自有品牌的成本。
A key part of the whole analysis is, when he negotiated his pay package at Bed Bath, he took a base salary of about $1 million to $1.2 million, with a target bonus of $750,000. And he took the rest of his compensation in equity, about $7 million to $10 million in equity, depending on how well he does. So, he came in, and he didn't say, "Oh, pay me $10 million to $15 million in cash." He said, "Pay me a million or two, and give me the rest in stock." He thinks he can do what's needed and sees upside in owning shares.
整個分析的一個關鍵部分是，當他在Bed Bath談判薪酬方案時，他的基本工資約為100萬至120萬美元，目標獎金為75萬美元。他的其餘薪酬以股權形式支付，約為700萬至1000萬美元，具體取決於他做得有多好。於是，他走了進來，沒有說：“哦，給我1000萬到1500萬美元的現金吧。”他說：“給我一兩百萬，剩下的給我現貨。”他認為自己可以做需要做的事情，並看到了持有股票的好處。
How much improvement do you expect at Bed Bath & Beyond?
您對Bed Bath及Beyond的改進有多大期望？
Witmer: They have estimated they would make $2 a share this year, which gives them margins around 3%. He should be able to bring the margins up to 6% over the next few years, just from better sourcing, cost-cutting, and getting sales moving a little. If he does that, earnings should grow to about $4 to $5 a share. We think the stock would get at least a nine or 10 multiple, probably higher if it is on a growth track. So, we have a shot at, from $16 today, getting to about $45 a share in three years. It could be a three-bagger.
維特默：他們估計今年每股盈利2美元，這使他們的利潤率在3%左右。他應該能夠在接下來的幾年裡將利潤率提高到6%，僅僅是通過更好的採購、成本削減和推動銷售小幅增長。如果他做到了這一點，每股收益應該會增長到4到5美元左右。我們認為，該股將至少獲得9倍或10倍的本益比，如果它處於增長軌道，可能會更高。因此，我們有機會在三年內從目前的每股16美元升至約45美元。可能是三個袋子。
Bed Bath is reporting earnings this week, and I expect the stock to trade down, so hopefully Barron's readers will be able to buy this stock more cheaply. I want to stress that this will likely not be an overnight success, so it makes sense to buy it on dips.
Bed Bath本週將公佈財報，我預計該股將下跌，因此希望Barron的讀者能夠以更低的價格購買這只股票。我想強調的是，這可能不會在一夜之間取得成功，因此逢低買入是有意義的。
What's your next stock?
你的下一批貨是什麼？
Witmer: LafargeHolcim (LHN.Switzerland and HCMLY in the U.S.), a maker of cement and lime aggregates. I mentioned it in the midyear Roundtable. It's up a little, but it's so good I want to mention it again. Lafarge Holcim is the product of a very difficult merger. It was very, very poorly managed before. And now we have a dynamic duo running it -- Jan Jenisch, who's the former CEO of Sika, and Geraldine Picaud, the former CFO of Essilor. They came in to turn it around and reduce the bloated overhead. They focused on getting the balance sheet into shape, and sold assets to shore it up. And they continue to improve operations by pushing management down to the local level, fostering a more entrepreneurial climate, and upgrading where needed. They're very, well, almost ruthless about doing this, and I mean that in the best of ways.
Witmer：LafargeHolcim(LHN.Swiss和HCMLY在美國)，一家水泥和石灰骨料製造商。我在年中圓桌會議上提到了這一點。它漲了一點，但它太好了，我想再提一次。拉法基豪瑞是一次非常艱難的合併的產物。以前，它的管理非常非常糟糕。現在，我們有了一個充滿活力的二人組--西卡的前首席執行官建恩·傑尼施和Essilor的前首席財務官傑拉爾丁·皮考德。他們的到來是為了扭轉局面，減少臃腫的頭頂。他們專注於整頓資產負債表，並出售資產以支撐資產負債表。他們繼續通過將管理下放到地方層面來改善運營，培養更具創業精神的氛圍，並在需要的地方進行升級。他們做這件事幾乎是無情的，我是說最好的方式。
What kind of results is Lafarge producing?
拉法基正在產生什麼樣的結果？
Witmer: For 2019, they should report 3.40 to 3.50 Swiss francs of earnings per share. And with their typical growth rate of 4% to 5% and getting debt paid down with free cash flow, we see earnings growing to about CHF4.30 a share in 2021. The company has depreciation and amortization well above its maintenance capital-spending needs. So, if you add in the excess of about CHF560 million to earnings, it yields free cash flow per share of CHF4.75 in 2019, growing to CHF5.66 in 2021. With a range of after-tax free cash flow of CHF5.65 to maybe CHF6.55 if things go right in that 2021-22 time frame, we see the stock trading to at least $70 or CHF67.50 within the next year or two, and it has a 3.85% yield as an added incentive to own it. This is the base case.
維特默：2019年，他們應該公佈每股收益為3.40至3.50瑞士法郎。鑑於它們的典型增長率為4%至5%，並用自由現金流償還債務，我們預計2021年收益將增長至每股4.30瑞士法郎左右。該公司的折舊和攤銷遠高於其維護資本支出需求。因此，如果將盈餘約5.6億瑞士法郎加到收益中，2019年每股自由現金流為4.75瑞士法郎，2021年增長到5.66瑞士法郎。如果在2021-22年的時間框架內一切順利，稅後自由現金流的範圍可能在5.65至6.55瑞士法郎之間，我們預計股票交易在未來一兩年內至少達到70美元或67.50瑞士法郎，它有3.85%的收益率作為擁有它的額外激勵。這是基本情況。
There's potentially more upside?
還有更多潛在的上行空間？
Witmer: We see the potential for 50 cents to a dollar per share of incremental EPS, and free cash flow, coming from better cement pricing in Europe, due to changes the European Union is making in the CO(2) allowances and requirements. We think that many of the mom-and-pop producers in Germany and Spain will eventually shut down, taking capacity out of the market, rather than make the needed investments to meet the CO(2) -reduction requirements. And the resulting consolidation will move pricing upward toward 90 euros to 100 euros per ton from about EUR70 to EUR80 now.
Witmer：我們認為，由於歐盟正在改變CO(2)的額度和要求，歐洲水泥定價的提高帶來了每股50美分至1美元的每股增量收益和自由現金流的潛力。我們認為，德國和西班牙的許多夫妻店最終將關閉，將產能撤出市場，而不是進行必要的投資，以滿足CO(2)減排要求。由此產生的整合將把價格從現在的每噸約70歐元推高至每噸90歐元至100歐元。
In addition, it's very difficult to build a new cement plant. Europe doesn't need them. In the U.S., it takes 10 years, if you can even get it done. In the U.S., capacity utilization should increase, and that should help on the pricing front, which isn't in our numbers. That could ultimately take pricing $10-plus per ton higher.
此外，建造一座新的水泥廠也非常困難。歐洲不需要它們。在美國，如果你能做到這一點，也需要10年的時間。在美國，產能利用率應該會提高，這應該會對定價方面有所幫助，而我們的數位並不包括這一點。這最終可能使每噸鐵礦石的價格上漲10美元以上。
And for your last pick?
你最後的選擇是什麼？
Witmer: It's Lanxess (LXS.Germany and LNXSY in the U.S.), a specialty-chemical producer based in Germany that I recommended last year, and I'm recommending it again. It was up nearly 50% in 2019. Now it's about EUR59, has a market cap of about EUR5 billion. Over the past year, the company has hit its numbers, despite very, very weak macro conditions in Europe and elsewhere. And they've continued to improve the quality of their business mix. They've divested noncore, low-performing businesses, and they're bringing in some money from that.
維特默：我去年推薦的是德國的特種化學品生產商朗盛(Lanxess，德國是LXS，美國是LNXSY)，現在我再次推薦。2019年上漲了近50%。現在約為59歐元，市值約為50億歐元。在過去的一年裡，儘管歐洲和其他地區的宏觀環境非常非常疲軟，但該公司的業績還是不錯的。而且他們還在繼續提高業務組合的質量。他們剝離了非核心、業績不佳的業務，並從中賺取了一些資金。
Is there more to the story than good management and debt pay-down?
除了良好的管理和償債之外，還有什麼更重要的嗎？
Witmer: In the past year -- and this is just a new thing that came up on their investor day -- they created a company called CheMondis. It's an online chemical distributor, which has gone from start-up to EUR150 million in transaction volume in less than a year. It's basically business-to-business, small-transaction chemicals. It's a very complicated business. You need all the chemical manifests, and the like. And they have a niche in there, and it's just growing dramatically. It's not contributing to earnings yet, but if it keeps growing like this, it will be quite an asset.
維特默：在過去的一年裡--這只是他們在投資者日出現的一個新事物--他們創建了一家名為CheMondis的公司。這是一家在線化學品分銷商，在不到一年的時間裡，從一家初創公司到交易額達到1.5億歐元。它基本上是企業對企業、小額交易的化學品。這是一項非常複雜的業務。你需要所有的化學清單，諸如此類。他們在那裡有一個利基市場，而且還在戲劇性地增長。它還沒有對收益做出貢獻，但如果它繼續這樣增長，它將是一筆相當大的資產。
That sounds promising.
這聽起來很有希望。
Witmer: And while they continue to execute extremely well in a challenging global economy, we're really excited about the cash war chest they're building. Lanxess currently has about a billion euros of cash on the balance sheet, and they'll receive an incremental EUR600 million from the sale of their stake in Currenta, a chemical-park operator. The company has put a strategic-acquisition target list together and is being very disciplined with the prices they're willing to pay. They have a strategy, and they've done some very successful acquisitions in the past.
維特默：雖然他們在充滿挑戰的全球經濟中繼續表現得非常好，但我們對他們正在建立的現金儲備感到非常興奮。朗盛目前的資產負債表上有大約10億歐元的現金，他們將從出售化學園區運營商Currenta的股份中獲得6億歐元的增量收益。該公司已經制定了一份戰略收購目標清單，並對他們願意支付的價格非常嚴格。他們有一個戰略，而且他們在過去進行了一些非常成功的收購。
What does that mean for the stock?
這對該股意味著什麼？
Witmer: Without any acquisitions, they should make about EUR4 per share in 2020 and, adding the excess depreciation and amortization, have about EUR5.65 in sustaining free cash flow. After the sale of Currenta, we think there's about EUR1.5 billion of excess cash, which is $17 a share. We trust the terrific management team to deploy it strategically. If they can get a 12% after-tax return, that earnings power would increase by EUR2 per share. At 12 times, that would add an incremental $24 of value to our current price target of $70 a share. We see something close to $100. And if they don't deploy the capital, $70 to $80. And it's about $60 today. So, a free call on the upside.
威特默：在沒有任何收購的情況下，他們應該在2020年實現每股約4歐元的收益，加上額外的折舊和攤銷，在維持自由現金流方面約有5.65歐元。在出售Currenta之後，我們認為有大約15億歐元的過剩現金，即每股17美元。我們相信出色的管理團隊會對其進行戰略性部署。如果他們能獲得12%的稅後回報，每股盈利能力將增加2歐元。按12倍計算，這將使我們目前每股70美元的目標價增加24美元。我們看到接近100美元的價格。如果他們不部署資本，70到80美元。今天大約是60美元。所以，這是一個利多的免費電話。
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January 17, 2020 17:15 ET (22:15 GMT)
2020年1月17日東部時間17：15(格林尼治標準時間22：15)
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