TheStreet Fight: Doug Kass and Jim ‘Rev Shark’ DePorre Duke It Out on Trading and the Markets
TheStreet Fight: Doug Kass and Jim ‘Rev Shark’ DePorre Duke It Out on Trading and the Markets
Doug Kass and Jim “Rev Shark” DePorre actually have a lot in common --despite what many of their Twitter followers may think.
道格·卡斯和吉姆·“鯊魚牧師”DePorre實際上有很多共同點--儘管他們中的許多人推特追隨者可能會認為。
Kass and DePorre are both long-time columnists for TheStreet’s premium site Real Money, dedicated to providing the most insightful market commentary and trading guidance to subscribers. What's more, they have intriguing and inspiring personal and professional stories.
卡斯和德波爾都是《紐約時報》的長期專欄作家泰晤士街的優質網站Real Money，致力於為訂户提供最有洞察力的市場評論和交易指導。更重要的是，他們有耐人尋味和鼓舞人心的個人和專業故事。
Kass has been writing his popular Daily Diary blog for 22 years on Real Money Pro and DePorre pens four columns a day on Real Money, where he’s been a regular fixture since 2001. Both are invaluable for investors and traders to stay abreast of the market and for ideas on how to play it.
卡斯一直在寫他的通俗在Real Money Pro和DePorre上寫了22年的每日日記博客，每天都在Real Money上寫四個專欄，自2001年以來，他一直是Real Money的常客。對於投資者和交易員來説，這兩者都是非常寶貴的，讓他們瞭解市場的最新情況，併為他們提供如何發揮市場作用的想法。
However, while Kass and Rev Shark may share the same goals, their investment approach and strategies couldn’t be more different.
然而，儘管卡斯和Rev Shark可能有着相同的目標，但他們的投資方式和策略卻截然不同。
Below, Kass and Rev Shark, in their owns words, discuss some of those differences.
下面，卡斯和鯊魚牧師用他們自己的話討論了其中的一些不同之處。
Rev Shark:
鯊魚牧師：
Doug and I have been debating a wide variety of topics over many years but at the heart of most of our disagreements is a difference in style. I don’t believe that any approach to the market is inherently superior. Two people can approach in very different ways and do equally well. It all depends on finding a style that suits your thinking and temperament.
多年來，道格和我一直在討論各種各樣的話題，但我們大多數分歧的核心是風格上的不同。I不要認為任何進入市場的方法都是天生優越的。兩個人可以用非常不同的方式接近，但做得同樣好。這完全取決於找到一種適合你的思維和氣質的風格。
That being said, I think that most people would be more successful at trading and investing if they focused more on price action and reacting rather than on anticipation and predictions.
話雖如此，我認為，如果大多數人更多地關注價格走勢和反應，而不是預期和預測，他們在交易和投資方面會更成功。
Kass:
卡斯：
Though I recognize that there are a lot of ways to make money in the markets, I approach the market from the standpoint of fundamentals.
雖然我認識到在市場上有很多賺錢的方法，但我是從基本面的角度來看待市場的。
The core foundation of my approach to intermediate and longer-term investing lies in hard-hitting (and often contrarian) securities analysis -- a key factor in the process is searching for a "margin of safety."
我的中長期投資方法的核心基礎在於強有力的(通常是反向的)證券分析--這一過程中的一個關鍵因素是尋找“安全邊際”。
I invest in companies that sell, based on my calculus, at a discount to intrinsic value (providing me with a margin of safety).
我投資的公司，根據我的計算，以低於內在價值的價格出售(為我提供了安全邊際)。
My approach is only as good as the analytical input that is attached to those determined values.
我的方法只能像附加到這些確定的值上的分析輸入一樣好。
Importantly (and understandably), while my investing isanticipatory, Rev's trading process is understandablyreactive-- as price momentum is an important determinant of his trades.
重要的是(也是可以理解的)，雖然我的投資是預期的，但雷夫的交易過程是可以理解的反應--因為價格動量是他交易的一個重要決定因素。
Another important difference is that my investing timeframe is far longer than Rev's trading timeframe.
另一個重要的區別是，我的投資時間表遠遠長於Rev的交易時間表。
I sayviva la differencebetween our approaches, for as Warren Buffett once stated, "in the short run the market is a voting machine, in the long run it is a weighing machine."
我認為我們兩種方法之間的差異是萬歲的，因為正如沃倫·巴菲特曾經説過的那樣：“短期內，市場是一臺投票機，從長遠來看，它是一臺稱重機。”
Rev Shark:
鯊魚牧師：
I appreciate Doug’s approach but I believe that he relies far too much on predictions and that creates unnecessary risk. One of the biggest changes in my trading over the years has been to admit that we do not know what the market will do next and that it is far more important to respect the price action and to use a strategic approach.
我欣賞道格的方法，但我認為他過於依賴預測，這造成了不必要的風險。多年來，我在交易中最大的變化之一是承認，我們不知道市場下一步會做什麼，尊重價格走勢並使用戰略方法要重要得多。
A good example is our current positions in the indices. I see no reason to fight the trend and I believe it is futile to try to predict when a major top might form. I believe Doug has been building index shorts for a while as he feels that a major turn will soon occur.
一個很好的例子是我們目前在指數中的頭寸。我認為沒有理由與這一趨勢背道而馳，我認為試圖預測何時可能形成主要頂部是徒勞的。我相信道格建立指數空頭已經有一段時間了，因為他覺得很快就會出現重大轉折。
I believe most individual investors and traders will not handle this sort of predictive and anticipatory investing very well and would be better served if they forget predictions and focused on price action instead.
我相信，大多數個人投資者和交易員不會很好地處理這種預測性和預期性投資，如果他們忘記預測，轉而專注於價格走勢，會得到更好的服務。
Kass:
卡斯：
I agree with Rev's trading approach.
我同意雷夫的交易方式。
But, his timeframe is relatively short compared to mine.
但是，與我相比，他的時間框架相對較短。
However, even in regard to short-term trading, a changing market structure (in which ETFs and quantitative products and strategies now dominate daily market trading) tends to artificially influence short-term prices (and charts).
然而，即使是在短期交易方面，不斷變化的市場結構(其中ETF和量化產品和策略現在主宰日常市場交易)往往會人為地影響短期價格(和圖表)。
This is not ourfather's marketand natural price discovery (abetted by generous monetary policy and even the change in the uptick rule for shorting) has given way to an artificiality in prices, patterns and charts.
這不是我們父親的市場，自然的價格發現(受到寬鬆貨幣政策的推動，甚至是做空上升規則的改變)已經讓位於價格、模式和圖表的人為因素。
It also raises the possibility of abrupt and unpredictableFlash Crashesin the years ahead.
這也增加了未來幾年突然和不可預測的閃電崩潰的可能性。
Rev Shark:
鯊魚牧師：
I believe that Doug is far too quick to dismiss the value of relying on price action as a way to navigate the market. Yes, there are some major influences such as computer algorithms and high-frequency trading that have shifted the nature of the action and create randomness, but those issues also offer opportunities if you use the right strategies.
我認為，道格太快地否定了依賴價格走勢作為引導市場的一種方式的價值。是的，計算機算法和高頻交易等一些重大影響改變了行為的性質，創造了隨機性，但如果你使用正確的策略，這些問題也提供了機會。
Navigating the market in the short term is the best way to ensure longer-term success. It is far too easy to dismiss obviously technical problems that a stock is having and may indicate deep fundamental problems when you claim to be a long-term investor.
在短期內駕馭市場是確保長期成功的最佳方式。當你聲稱自己是長期投資者時，很容易對一隻股票存在的明顯技術問題不屑一顧，而且可能表明存在深層次的基本面問題。
Discipline and strategy are the best ways to outperform the market and using charts and price action is essential to both.
紀律和策略是跑贏大盤的最佳方式，而使用圖表和價格走勢對兩者都是必不可少的。
This leads to the question of whether price is truth.
這就引出了價格是否是真理的問題。
Rev Shark:
鯊魚牧師：
Absolutely price is truth. Price determines whether we make money or not and that is ultimately the only thing that matters. That doesn't mean that price reflects value but, in my opinion, it is impossible to calculate value. I think that is one of the main conceits of fundamental investing.
絕對價格就是真理。價格決定我們是否賺錢，這最終是唯一重要的事情。這並不意味着價格反映了價值，但在我看來，計算價值是不可能的。我認為這是基本面投資的主要自負之一。
There is a belief that fundamental analysis has a higher degree of precision than using charts. In addition, value approaches carry far more risk when they are not used with appropriate risk management. The risk of underperforming for years while waiting for price to reflect value is a huge factor that is overlooked by those trying to copy a Buffett-like approach.
人們相信，基本面分析比使用圖表具有更高的精確度。此外，當價值方法沒有與適當的風險管理一起使用時，它們帶來的風險要大得多。在等待價格反映價值的同時，多年表現不佳的風險是一個巨大的因素，那些試圖複製巴菲特式做法的人忽視了這一點。
Kass:
卡斯：
There is a tendency to believe that "price is truth."
有一種傾向認為“價格就是真理”。
To me, price is just a point in time -- the intersection of demand and supply. As I mentioned, it’s exaggerated by products, strategies and traders that worship at the altar of short-term price performance.
對我來説，價格只是一個時間點--需求和供應的交匯點。正如我提到的，崇拜短期價格表現的產品、策略和交易員誇大了這一點。
I aggressively use these opportunities when price deviates markedly from intrinsic value in my process.
當價格在我的過程中明顯偏離內在價值時，我會積極利用這些機會。
No doubt it requires patience and a longer-term timeframe for investing.
毫無疑問，這需要耐心和更長期的投資時間表。
There are so many examples I can use of artificiality -- for example Tilray( TLRY ) - Get Reportat $300/share a year or so ago (now under $18/share).
我可以使用很多人工的例子--例如Tilray(TLRY)-大約一年前，報告價格為每股300美元(現在低於每股18美元)。
Here is another in the debt market:
這裏是債務市場的另一個例子：
Not too long ago Argentina's 100-year bond was 10x oversubscribed at 7.875%.
不久前，阿根廷的100年期債券獲得了10倍的超額認購，達到7.875%。
Obviously "Global Markets" were not thinking there was a "problem" at issuance in May 2018.
顯然，《全球市場》並沒有認為2018年5月的發行存在“問題”。
Participants joked about it, just as there are currently nonstop jokes about Austria's 100 year or Ireland's, etc., but it was waved in with abandon.
參與者拿它開玩笑，就像現在不斷有關於奧地利百年或愛爾蘭百年等的笑話一樣，但它被肆意揮舞着。
The Argentina bond was not inconsequential in size -- it was a $2.6 billion issue! (issued at $90 to yield 7.90% and now trading at about $56!). Certainly, Argentina has a long history of default, but I wouldn't even call this one an easy short given the cost of carry for 15 months... the bond took a surprise 15-point election poll hit for it to crack in a bad tape several months ago ...
阿根廷的債券在規模上不是無關緊要的--它是26億美元的債券！(發行價格為90美元，收益率為7.90%，目前交易價格約為56美元！)當然，阿根廷違約的歷史由來已久，但考慮到15個月的附帶成本，我甚至不認為這是一個容易的空頭……幾個月前，這隻債券意外地在選舉民調中獲得了15個百分點的支持率，因為它在一盤糟糕的磁帶中崩潰了……
No, price isn't truth.
不，價格不是事實。
Markets are often inefficient.
市場往往是低效的。
Rev Shark:
鯊魚牧師：
Both Doug and I believe that price will vary greatly from value but my focus is to make money by focusing on price action when Doug believes that it is better to focus on value and to hope that it eventually is appreciated by the market. I certainly agree that price may not at all reflect value at times but that astute traders can use that dynamic to make money. I want to take advantage of the tendency of price to disconnect from reality and have no fear of buying a stock like( TLRY ) - Get Reportand Beyond Meat( BYND ) - Get Reportwhen they are running on pure momentum.
道格和我都認為，價格將與價值有很大不同，但我的重點是通過專注於價格行動來賺錢，而道格認為專注於價值並希望它最終能被市場欣賞。我當然同意，價格有時可能根本不能反映價值，但精明的交易員可以利用這種動態來賺錢。我想利用價格與現實脱節的趨勢，無所畏懼地購買像(TLRY)-獲取報告和超越肉類(拜德)-當他們以純粹的動力運行時，獲取報告。
Doug's approach to value and price requires great patience at times and I believe that it also leads to underperformance because there is no focus on timing.
道格的價值和價格方法有時需要極大的耐心，我認為這也會導致業績不佳，因為它不注重時機。
Let’s wrap up with both of your views on how impeachment will affect the markets in 2020.
讓我們來總結一下你們對彈劾將如何影響2020年市場的兩點看法。
Rev Shark:
鯊魚牧師：
I believe impeachment will impact the market in 2020 by actually helping Donald Trump to be reelected. While Trump is disliked for his personality excesses by many, he has been effective with policy and many of the swing voters do not care for the partisan way in which impeachment was handled.
我認為，彈劾實際上將幫助唐納德·特朗普連任，從而影響2020年的市場。雖然特朗普因個性過激而不受歡迎，但他在政策上一直很有效，許多搖擺不定的選民並不關心彈劾處理的黨派方式。
Like him or not Trump is a positive for the stock market and if his chances of reelection increase it will help the market, especially when contrasted with the less friendly policies of Biden, Warren or Sanders.
不管你喜不喜歡他，特朗普對股市都是積極的，如果他連任的機會增加，這將對市場有利，特別是與拜登、沃倫或桑德斯不那麼友好的政策形成對比時。
Kass:
卡斯：
As it relates to our capital markets the issue of impeachment is a "nothing burger" -- as there is a 99.999% likelihood that the it will be defeated in the Senate.
就我們的資本市場而言，彈劾問題是一個“無關緊要的問題”--因為它在參議院被否決的可能性為99.999。
That said, the passage of the articles of impeachment (in the House of Representatives) may have an impact on the November 2020 election.
儘管如此，彈劾條款(在眾議院)的通過可能會對2020年11月的選舉產生影響。
At this point, however, I am not sure whether it will hurt or help the incumbent President.
然而，在這一點上，我不確定這是傷害還是幫助現任總裁。
It was nice participating in this forum with Rev - who, as all our subscribers now, I respect immensely as a person and as an investor.
確實是好的與Rev一起參加這個論壇-作為我們現在的所有訂閲者，我作為一個人和一個投資者非常尊重他。
Doug Kass’ Daily Diary appears each trading day on Real Money Pro, TheStreet’s premium site for active traders. Click here to learn more and get great columns, commentary and trade ideas from Kass, Tim Collins, Mark Sebastian, Paul Price, and others.
道格·卡斯的每日日記每個交易日都會出現在Real Money Pro上，這是The Street為活躍交易者提供的優質網站。單擊此處瞭解更多信息，並從卡斯、蒂姆·柯林斯、馬克·塞巴斯蒂安、保羅·普萊斯等人那裏獲得精彩的專欄、評論和交易想法。
James ‘Rev Shark’ DePorre writes on stocks and the markets each trading day for Real Money.
“鯊魚牧師”詹姆斯·德波爾每個交易日都會為Real Money撰寫有關股票和市場的文章。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。