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Is Leggett & Platt, Incorporated (NYSE:LEG) Expensive For A Reason? A Look At Its Intrinsic Value

Is Leggett & Platt, Incorporated (NYSE:LEG) Expensive For A Reason? A Look At Its Intrinsic Value

是萊格特 & 普拉特, 註冊 (紐約證交所代碼:腿) 昂貴的原因?看看它的內在價值
Simply Wall St. ·  2019/11/29 12:01

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Today we will run through one way of estimating the intrinsic value of Leggett & Platt, Incorporated (NYSE:LEG) by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to today's value. This is done using the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. It may sound complicated, but actually it is quite simple!

今天,我們將通過一種方法來評估Leggett&Platt律師事務所(紐約證券交易所股票代碼:LEG),將預期的未來現金流折現到今天的價值。這是使用貼現現金流(DCF)模型來實現的。這聽起來可能很複雜,但實際上很簡單!

Remember though, that there are many ways to estimate a company's value, and a DCF is just one method. Anyone interested in learning a bit more about intrinsic value should have a read of theSimply Wall St analysis model.

不過請記住,有很多方法可以評估一家公司的價值,貼現現金流只是其中一種方法。任何有興趣瞭解更多內在價值的人,都應該閲讀一下Simply Wall ST分析模型。

See our latest analysis for Leggett & Platt

查看我們對Leggett&Platt的最新分析

The method

方法

We are going to use a two-stage DCF model, which, as the name states, takes into account two stages of growth. The first stage is generally a higher growth period which levels off heading towards the terminal value, captured in the second 'steady growth' period. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

我們將使用兩階段貼現現金流模型,顧名思義,該模型考慮了兩個增長階段。第一階段通常是一個較高的成長期,接近終值,在第二個“穩定增長”階段捕捉到。首先,我們需要估計未來十年的現金流。在可能的情況下,我們使用分析師的估計,但當這些估計不可用時,我們會根據上次估計或報告的價值推斷先前的自由現金流(FCF)。我們假設,自由現金流萎縮的公司將減緩收縮速度,而自由現金流增長的公司在這段時間內的增長速度將放緩。我們這樣做是為了反映出,增長在最初幾年往往比後來幾年放緩得更多。

Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, and so the sum of these future cash flows is then discounted to today's value:

一般來説,我們假設今天的一美元比未來的一美元更有價值,所以這些未來現金流的總和就會貼現到今天的價值:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast

10年自由現金流(FCF)預測

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)

(“EST”=Simply Wall St.預估的FCF成長率)

Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = US$2.1b

10年期現金流現值(PVCF)=21億美元

We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 10-year government bond rate (2.7%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 8.8%.

我們現在需要計算終端價值,它説明瞭這十年後的所有未來現金流。出於一些原因,使用了一個非常保守的增長率,不能超過一個國家的國內生產總值增長率。在這種情況下,我們使用了10年期政府債券利率(2.7%)來估計未來的增長。與10年“增長”期一樣,我們使用8.8%的權益成本將未來現金流貼現至當前價值。

Terminal Value (TV) = FCF2029× (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = US$496m× (1 + 2.7%) ÷ 8.8%– 2.7%) = US$8.4b

終端值(TV)=FCF2029×(1+g)?(r-g)=4.96億美元×(1+2.7%)?8.8%-2.7%=84億美元

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV) = TV / (1 + r)10= US$8.4b÷ ( 1 + 8.8%)10= US$3.6b

終值現值(PVTV)=TV/(1+r)10=84億美元?(1+8.8%)10=36億美元

The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is US$5.7b. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of US$52.6, the company appears slightly overvalued at the time of writing. Valuations are imprecise instruments though, rather like a telescope - move a few degrees and end up in a different galaxy. Do keep this in mind.

總價值是未來十年的現金流總和加上貼現的終端價值,得出總股本價值,在本例中為57億美元。最後一步是將股權價值除以流通股數量。與目前52.6美元的股價相比,在撰寫本文時,該公司的估值似乎略有高估。然而,估值是不精確的工具,更像是一臺望遠鏡--移動幾度,就會到達另一個星系。一定要記住這一點。

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Important assumptions

重要假設

Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate, and of course, the actual cash flows. Part of investing is coming up with your own evaluation of a company's future performance, so try the calculation yourself and check your own assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Leggett & Platt as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 8.8%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.022. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

現在,貼現現金流最重要的投入是貼現率,當然還有實際現金流。投資的一部分是你自己對一家公司未來業績的評估,所以你自己試一試計算,檢查你自己的假設。DCF也沒有考慮一個行業可能的週期性,也沒有考慮一家公司未來的資本要求,因此它沒有給出一家公司潛在業績的全貌。鑑於我們將Leggett&Platt視為潛在股東,股權成本被用作貼現率,而不是佔債務的資本成本(或加權平均資本成本,WACC)。在這個計算中,我們使用了8.8%,這是基於槓桿率為1.022的測試版。貝塔係數是衡量一隻股票相對於整個市場的波動性的指標。我們的貝塔係數來自全球可比公司的行業平均貝塔係數,強制限制在0.8到2.0之間,這是一個穩定業務的合理範圍。

Next Steps:

接下來的步驟:

Although the valuation of a company is important, it shouldn’t be the only metric you look at when researching a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Rather it should be seen as a guide to "what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?" If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. What is the reason for the share price to differ from the intrinsic value? For Leggett & Platt, I've compiled three essential factors you should further research:

儘管一家公司的估值很重要,但它不應該是你在研究一家公司時唯一考慮的指標。貼現現金流模型並不是一個完美的股票估值工具。相反,它應該被視為“什麼假設需要成立才能讓這隻股票被低估或高估”的指南。如果一家公司以不同的速度增長,或者如果其股本成本或無風險利率大幅變化,產出可能看起來非常不同。股價與內在價值不同的原因是什麼?對於Leggett&Platt,我整理了三個你應該進一步研究的基本因素:

Financial Health : Does LEG have a healthy balance sheet? Take a look at ourfree balance sheet analysis with six simple checkson key factors like leverage and risk.

財務狀況:Leg是否擁有健康的資產負債表?看看我們的自由資產負債表分析,其中包括槓桿和風險等六個簡單的關鍵因素。

Future Earnings : How does LEG's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with ourfree analyst growth expectation chart.

未來收益:與同行和更廣泛的市場相比,LEG的增長率如何?通過與我們的免費分析師增長預期圖表互動,更深入地挖掘未來幾年的分析師共識數字。

Other High Quality Alternatives : Are there other high quality stocks you could be holding instead of LEG? Exploreour interactive list of high quality stocksto get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!

其他高質量替代產品:除了腿部,還有其他高質量的股票可以持有嗎?瀏覽我們的高質量庫存互動列表,瞭解您可能還錯過了什麼!

PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the NYSE every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks justsearch here.

PS.Simply Wall St.應用每天對紐約證交所的每隻股票進行現金流貼現估值。如果你想找到其他股票的計算方法,只需搜索此處。

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor ateditorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned.

如果您發現了需要更正的錯誤,請發送電子郵件至EDITICATION-Team@implywallst.com聯繫編輯。本文由Simply Wall St.撰寫,具有概括性。它不構成買賣任何股票的建議,也沒有考慮你的目標或你的財務狀況。Simply Wall St.對上述股票沒有持倉。

We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Thank you for reading.

我們的目標是為您帶來由基礎數據驅動的長期重點研究分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不會將最新的對價格敏感的公司公告或定性材料考慮在內。感謝您的閲讀。

譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。


以上內容僅用作資訊或教育之目的,不構成與富途相關的任何投資建議。富途竭力但無法保證上述全部內容的真實性、準確性和原創性。
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