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郑煤机(601717):煤机业务持续景气 SEG业务盈利转正

Zheng Coal Machine (601717): Coal Machine Business Continues to Profit, SEG Business Turns Profit Positive

中金公司 ·  Mar 31, 2023 00:00  · Researches

The 2022 results are in line with our expectations

The company announced 2022 results: revenue for the full year of 2022 was 32.04 billion yuan, up 9.4% year on year; 4Q single-quarter revenue was 8.26 billion yuan, up 13% year on year; net profit for the full year of 2022 was 2,538 million yuan, up 31.31% year on year; 4Q single-quarter net profit was 580 million yuan, up 55.5% year on year; the performance was in line with our expectations.

The coal machine sector continues to grow rapidly: revenue from the coal machine sector increased by +28.08% year on year to 16.76 billion yuan in 2022, mainly due to the continued growth of the company's coal machine orders; net profit returned to the mother in 2022 was 2.51 billion yuan, an increase of 20.1% over the previous year. Among them, profit decreased by about 100 million yuan due to bad debt preparations.

The auto parts sector was under pressure in the short term, and SEG's business contributed additional volume. The auto parts sector's revenue in 2022 was 15.29 billion yuan, a decrease of 5.7% over the previous year. Specifically, ASIMCO's and SEG's revenue in 2022 were -16.97%/-1.61%, respectively (converted to RMB). ASIMCO's decline was mainly due to continued weakness in the domestic commercial vehicle market; SEG's revenue was +6.03% year-on-year in euro terms, mainly due to the influence of fluctuations in the euro exchange rate, which led to a year-on-year decline in revenue after conversion to RMB. Net profit attributable to the auto parts sector in 2022 was 300 million yuan, an increase of 2859.57% over the previous year. Of these, profit was reduced by 0.36/146 million yuan due to bad debt preparation and asset impairment preparation, respectively.

The company's expense ratio continues to improve, and the historical burden has basically been cleared. 1) The company's sales/management/finance expense ratio in 2022 was 2.5%/3.4%/0.4% respectively. Compared with 2021 -0.3/-1.7/-0.3ppt respectively, it has been declining continuously since 2020, and the company's cost control capabilities are strong. 2) The company raised a total of 280 million yuan in goodwill impairment provisions in 2022, of which the acquisition of ASIMCO and SEG was 216.061 million yuan respectively.

Development trends

The coal machine business is expected to continue to be booming, and the SEG business will turn a loss into a profit. 1) Currently, the price of thermal coal is about 1,100 yuan/ton. It continues to operate at a high level. The capital expenditure of the Coal Group is expected to continue to rise. We are optimistic that the company's coal machine business orders will continue to grow in 2023. 2) The decline in SEG's revenue continued to narrow in 2022, falling by about 10 ppt compared to 1H22 when converted to RMB; achieved net profit of 0.5 billion yuan, an increase of 280 million yuan over 2021, turning a loss into a profit. We expect the SEG business to contribute more performance growth this year.

Profit forecasting and valuation

Considering that the company's 2023 SEG business turned a loss into a profit, the 2023 profit forecast was raised by 5.4% to 3.05 billion yuan, and the 2024 profit forecast was introduced by 3.67 billion yuan; the current A-share price corresponds to the price-earnings ratio of 8.2/6.8 times 2023/2024, and the H-share price corresponds to the price-earnings ratio of 3.9 times/3.1 times 2024. We keep our target price unchanged. The target price of A shares corresponds to the price-earnings ratio of 11.4/9.4 times 2023/2024, which has 39.0% upward space compared to the current stock price; the target price of H shares corresponds to the price-earnings ratio of 5.3/4.3 times 2023/2024, which has an upward margin of 36.6% from the current stock price.

risks

Intelligent capital expenditure by coal companies fell short of expectations; the increase in raw material prices exceeded expectations.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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