Performance Overview
In 2022, Taibao Guimu's net profit was 24.61 billion yuan, -8.3% year on year; revenue was 455.372 billion yuan, +3.3% year on year; ROE was 10.80%, -1.4pc year on year; the dividend rate was steady, reaching 39.9%; NBV 9.205 billion yuan, -31.4% year on year; the comprehensive cost ratio of industrial insurance was 97.3%, and industrial insurance slightly exceeded expectations.
Core Concerns
1. Life insurance: NBV accelerated improvement in 22Q4
In 2022, Taibao Life Insurance's NBV was 9.205 billion yuan, or -31.4% year on year. Among them, the 22Q4 single quarter NBV was 1.66 billion yuan, a sharp increase of 29.8% over the previous year. The growth rate increased 27.2 pc over 22Q3, accelerating the improvement. The NBV contribution of banking insurance channels increased rapidly, from 2.3% in 2021 to 9.3% in 2022. Looking at the driving factors of NBV: ① New insurance premiums: new insurance of 66.44 billion yuan, a rapid increase, +35.8% year on year, 22Q4 new insurance of 13.0 billion yuan, +60.7% year on year, which is the main driving factor for NBV improvement. ② New business value ratio: The decline in the value ratio lowered NBV, but there was an improvement. In 2022, the value rate of life insurance was 11.6%, a year-on-year decrease of 11.9pc, mainly due to changes in channels and product structure. Looking ahead, Taibao's “Operation Changhang” has entered the second phase, focusing on stimulating and unleashing the momentum of various branches, empowering the internal service team, and actively broadening the multi-channel layout. It is expected that the 23Q1 growth momentum will continue.
2. Industrial insurance: the comprehensive cost ratio slightly exceeded expectations
In 2022, industrial insurance premiums were 170.38 billion yuan, +11.6% year on year, of which car insurance premiums were 97.99 billion yuan, +6.7% year on year, non-car premiums were 72.39 billion yuan, +19.0% year on year; the comprehensive cost ratio was 97.3%, down 1.8pc from the previous year, which was superior to major peers, slightly exceeding expectations. The payout rate and fee rate have all improved. The payout rate is 68.5%, down 1.1 pc from the previous year, the fee rate is 28.8%, and the year-on-year decrease is 0.6 pc. By type of insurance, the comprehensive cost rate of car insurance was 96.9%, down 1.8 pcs from the previous year, and the comprehensive cost ratio of non-car insurance was 98.1%, down 1.4 pcs from the previous year, which was a good performance. Taibao Insurance has launched a 2.0 transformation strategy for high-quality sustainable development, precise management, and is expected to continue healthy growth.
3. Investment: The overall investment performance is relatively stable
At the end of 22Q4, Taibao invested assets of 2 trillion yuan, +11.8% from the end of the previous year; net investment income was 791.8 billion yuan, +8.4% year on year, and total investment income was 76.537 billion yuan, -17.9% year on year; net investment return and total investment return were 4.3% and 4.2% respectively, down 0.2pc and 1.5pc respectively. Faced with the downturn in the stock market, Taibao responded promptly, and its overall earnings performance was relatively stable.
Profit forecasting and valuation
Taibao also has the genes of a state-owned enterprise and a market-based mechanism. As Changhang's actions advance in depth, the results of the reform are expected to continue to show. The net profit of Taibao Guimu is expected to grow 17.1%/16.5%/23.6% year-on-year in 2023-2025. The current price corresponds to 2023-2025 0.44/0.41/0.37 times PEV. The target price was maintained at 35.2 yuan, corresponding to 0.61 times the 2023E Group's PEV, and maintained the “buy” rating.
Risk warning
Reforms are progressing slowly, the economic environment has deteriorated, long-term interest rates have declined sharply, and capital markets have fluctuated sharply.