公司22 年扣非归母净利润26.2 亿元，同比下滑23%公司发布22 年年报，22 年实现收入/归母净利润199.3/31.4 亿元，同比减少5.5%/10.7%，实现扣非归母净利润26.2 亿元，同比减少23%，非经常性损益主要系资产处置收益，其中Q4 单季度实现收入/归母净利润46.2/7.9亿元，同比-10.45%/+0.6%，扣非归母净利润3.62 亿元，同比下滑51.6%。
公司22 年石膏板市占率实现小幅增长，并且在成本上涨背景下，石膏板单平毛利逆势提升，定价权优势尽显，未来或进一步加快渠道优化和海外扩张，促进产品高端化转变，石膏板主业增长空间仍存，防水板块或将受益于防水新标落地，继续看好公司“一体两翼”发展。
石膏板量缩价升，防水有望受益于新标落地
22 年轻质建材收入167.9 亿元，同比减少2.5%，主要系需求下滑影响销量，其中石膏板收入133.6 亿元，同比下滑3.02%，销量20.93 亿平，同比下降12%，我们计算公司22 年石膏板市占率达到68%，仍保持在高位，单位价格6.39 元/平，同比提升0.59 元/平（幅度10%）。23 年保交楼政策效果或逐渐显现，地产竣工需求有望回暖，公司通过渠道优化、海外扩张等方式有望进一步提升市占率水平，且产品高端化提升有望带动单平盈利提升。
龙骨收入25.2 亿元，同比下滑9%。防水分部实现收入30.6 亿元，同比下滑19%，其中防水卷材/防水涂料/防水工程收入分别为21.6/4.5/4.5 亿元，同比分别-15.2%/-16.0%/-34.9%，公司目前已推进16 个防水材料生产基地布局，将打造“1+N”产业格局，防水行业标准的提升后，一方面有望加快行业出清，同时带来行业扩容，未来防水板块有望向好发展。
石膏板单平毛利小幅提升，防水现金流下滑
公司22 年实现整体毛利率29.2%，同比下降2.6pct，其中石膏板/龙骨/防水卷材毛利率分别为35.0%/18.9%/17.3%，同比-2.3/+0.5/-10.1pct，石膏板单平毛利同比增长0.07 元，在成本上涨背景下，单平毛利仍实现提升，定价权优势凸显。22 年期间费用率13.8%，同比小幅上涨0.8pct，其中销售/管理/研发/财务费用率同比分别+0.1/+0.3/+0.2/+0.1pct，最终实现净利率15.8%，同比小幅下降1.08pct。公司22 年实现经营性现金流净流入36.6亿元，同比减少4.35%，其中防水建材分部2022 年经营活动产生的现金流量净额扣除归集至母公司资金影响后为-0.98 亿元，相比于21 年的4.6 亿元出现较大幅度下滑，石膏板现金流仍保持良好。
小幅下调盈利预测，维持“买入”评级
考虑到地产需求增长放缓，小幅下调23-24 年归母净利润预测至36.5/39.9亿元（前值38.1/43.0 亿元），新增25 年 归母净利润预测44.3 亿元，参考可比公司估值，我们给予公司23 年17x 目标PE，下调目标价至36.21 元，维持“买入”评级。
风险提示：商业及地产装修需求大幅下滑，防水业务整合效率不及预期等。
The company's net profit after deducting non-return to the mother in '22 was 26.02 billion yuan, down 23% from the previous year. The company released its 22-year annual report. It achieved revenue/net profit of 199.3/314 billion yuan in '22, down 5.5%/10.7% from the previous year, and achieved net profit of 2.62 billion yuan after deducting non-return to the mother, a decrease of 23% over the previous year. Non-recurring profit was mainly asset disposal income. Among them, Q4 achieved revenue/net profit of 4.62/790 million yuan in a single quarter, minus -10.45%/+0.6% year on year, net profit of non-homing mother was 362 million yuan, a year-on-year decline of 362 million yuan 51.6%
The company's market share of gypsum board increased slightly in '22, and against the backdrop of rising costs, the gross profit margin of a single gypsum board bucked the trend, and the advantage of pricing power was evident. Channel optimization and overseas expansion may be further accelerated in the future to promote high-end product transformation. There is still room for growth in the main gypsum board business. The waterproof sector may benefit from the implementation of new waterproof standards, and we continue to be optimistic about the company's “two wings in one” development.
The volume and price of gypsum board have been reduced and waterproofing is expected to benefit from the implementation of new standards
22. The revenue of young quality building materials was 16.79 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.5% over the previous year, mainly due to falling demand affecting sales. Among them, gypsum board revenue was 13.36 billion yuan, down 3.02% from the previous year, and sales were 2,093 billion square meters, down 12% from the previous year. We calculate that the company's market share of gypsum board reached 68% in '22, which remained high. The unit price was 6.39 yuan/square meter, an increase of 0.59 yuan/square meter over the previous year (a margin of 10%). The effects of the property insurance policy in '23 may gradually become apparent. Demand for real estate completion is expected to pick up. The company is expected to further increase its market share level through channel optimization and overseas expansion, and the increase in high-end products is expected to drive up profits.
Dragons' revenue was 2.52 billion yuan, down 9% year on year. The waterproofing division achieved revenue of 3.06 billion yuan, down 19% from the previous year. Among them, revenue from waterproof membrs/waterproof coatings/waterproofing projects was 21.6/45/45 billion yuan respectively, -15.2%/-16.0%/-34.9%, respectively. The company has now promoted the layout of 16 waterproof material production bases, which will create a “1+N” industrial pattern. After the upgrading of waterproofing industry standards, it is expected that the waterproof sector will accelerate the clearance of the industry and at the same time lead to industry expansion in the future.
The gross profit of a single plasterboard flat increased slightly, and waterproofing cash flow declined
The company achieved an overall gross profit margin of 29.2% in '22, a year-on-year decrease of 2.6pct. Among them, the gross margin of gypsum board/keel/waterproof membrane was 35.0%/18.9%/17.3%, respectively, and -2.3/+0.5/-10.1pct, and the gross profit of a single flat sheet of gypsum board increased 0.07 yuan year on year. Against the backdrop of rising costs, single flat margin increased, and pricing power advantage was highlighted. The expense rate for the 22-year period was 13.8%, a slight increase of 0.8 pct over the previous year. Among them, the sales/management/R&D/finance expenses ratio was +0.1/+0.3/+0.2/+0.1pct, respectively. The final net interest rate was 15.8%, a slight decrease of 1.08pct over the previous year. The company achieved a net operating cash flow inflow of 3.66 billion yuan in '22, a decrease of 4.35% over the previous year. Of these, the net cash flow generated by the waterproof building materials division's operating activities in 2022 was -98 million yuan after deducting the impact of capital collected from the parent company. Compared with the sharp decline of 4.6 billion yuan in '21, gypsum board cash flow remained good.
Profit forecasts were lowered slightly to maintain the “buy” rating
Considering the slowdown in real estate demand growth, the 23-24 net profit forecast was lowered slightly to 3.65/ 3.9 billion yuan (previous value of 3.880.30 billion yuan), and the 25-year net profit forecast was increased by 4.43 billion yuan. Referring to comparable company valuations, we gave the company 17x target PE for 23 and lowered the target price to 36.21 yuan to maintain the “buy” rating.
Risk warning: demand for commercial and real estate decoration has declined sharply, the efficiency of waterproofing business integration falls short of expectations, etc.
