事件：
公司发布2022年报。公司2022年实现营收36亿元，同比增长21.8%；净亏损/经调整净亏损15.8/12亿元，较去年同期扩大2.8/4.5亿元。
社区：关注社区生态建设
公司在生态第一战略下，持续优化获得感内容的运营工作，用户实现小幅增长。截至22年底，公司问答内容达5.06亿条，覆盖超过1000个垂直领域。22年公司MAU达1.1亿，同比增长5.6%。
商业化：付费会员及职业培训高速增长
公司商业化潜力持续释放，付费会员业务和职业培训持续高增。1）付费会员：22年公司付费会员业务收入为12亿元，同比增长84%。付费用户数达980万，同比增长93%。2）职业培训：低基数下公司该业务取得高速增长，22年收入达2.48亿元，同比增长400%。3）内容商业化解决方案：尽管疫情对广告主投放产生负面影响，但是公司该业务仍然取得增长，公司22年CCS收入同比增长5.8%至10.3亿元，凸显韧性。4）广告业务：受宏观环境影响，广告业务收入9.26亿元，同比下降20%。
22年亏损扩大，Q4降本增效持续进展
22年公司净亏损同比扩大，主要系公司在实现收入稳健增长的同时，相关内容成本、营销费用也在提升。Q4公司持续推进降本增效，聚焦核心业务，毛利大幅提升，净亏损率进一步收窄。Q4公司毛利率同比提升9.3pct至56.4%。同时费用率持续收窄，从而净亏损率持续改善。Q4公司营销/管理/研发费用率分别为46%/11%/19%，分别同比减少0.4%/6%/1%；净亏损率/经调整净亏损率分别为15.9%/12%，分别同比缩窄22/12pct。
盈利预测、估值与评级
我们预计公司2023-25年收入分别为45/55/63亿元，对应增速分别为26%/21%/14%，Non-GAAP净利润分别为-3.39/0.05/3.58亿元，对应的Non-GAAP EPS分别为-1.04/0.01/1.1。鉴于公司商业化价值持续释放，叠加广告业务预计随经济复苏而增长，参照可比公司估值，我们给予公司23年1.8倍PS，目标价25元（29港币）。维持“买入”评级。
风险提示：宏观经济放缓风险、内容监管风险、核心用户流失风险等。
Incidents:
The company published its 2022 report. The company achieved revenue of 3.6 billion yuan in 2022, an increase of 21.8% over the previous year; net loss/adjusted net loss was 1,58/ 1.2 billion yuan, an increase of 28/450 million yuan over the same period last year.
Community: Focus on community ecological construction
Under the ecology-first strategy, the company continuously optimized the operation of acquired content, and achieved a slight increase in users. By the end of '22, the company had 506 million questions and answers, covering more than 1,000 vertical fields. The company's MAU reached 110 million in '22, an increase of 5.6% over the previous year.
Commercialization: Rapid growth in paid memberships and vocational training
The company's commercialization potential continues to be unleashed, and the paid membership business and vocational training continue to rise. 1) Paid members: The company's paid membership business revenue in '22 was 1.2 billion yuan, an increase of 84% over the previous year. The number of paying users reached 9.8 million, an increase of 93% over the previous year. 2) Vocational training: Under a low base, the company's business achieved rapid growth. Revenue reached 248 million yuan in '22, an increase of 400% over the previous year. 3) Content commercialization solutions: Despite the negative impact of the pandemic on advertiser delivery, the company's business continued to grow. The company's CCS revenue increased 5.8% year-on-year to 1.03 billion yuan in '22, highlighting resilience. 4) Advertising business: Affected by the macro environment, advertising business revenue was 926 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 20%.
Losses expanded in '22, and Q4 cost reduction and efficiency continued to progress
The company's net loss increased year-on-year in '22, mainly because while the company achieved a steady increase in revenue, related content costs and marketing expenses also increased. The Q4 company continued to reduce costs and increase efficiency, focusing on core business. Gross profit increased dramatically, and the net loss ratio narrowed further. The Q4 company's gross margin increased 9.3pct to 56.4% year over year. At the same time, the expense ratio continued to narrow, so the net loss rate continued to improve. The marketing/management/R&D expenses ratio of Q4 companies was 46%/11%/19%, respectively, a year-on-year decrease of 0.4%/6%/1%, respectively; the net loss rate/adjusted net loss ratio was 15.9%/12%, respectively, narrowing 22/12pct from the previous year.
Profit Forecasts, Valuations, and Ratings
We expect the company's revenue for 2023-25 to be 45/556.3 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding growth rates of 26%/21%/14% respectively, non-GAAP net profit of -3.39/0.05/358 million yuan respectively, and the corresponding non-GAAP EPS of -1.04/0.01/1.1 respectively. As the company's commercial value continues to be released, the superimposed advertising business is expected to grow as the economy recovers. Referring to comparable company valuations, we gave the company 1.8 times PS for 23 years, with a target price of 25 yuan (HK$29). Maintain a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: risk of macroeconomic slowdown, risk of content regulation, risk of loss of core users, etc.
