事件：3月22日，昆药集团发布2022 年年度报告，2022 年，公司实现营业总收入82.82 亿元，同比增长0.35%；实现归母净利润3.83 亿元，同比下降24.52%；实现营业利润4.97 亿元，同比下降21.59%。
点评：
收入受集采和疫情影响持平，血塞通注射制剂医保后缀解除适应症限制增长具备前景。22Q4 公司实现营业收入20.89 亿元（-6.15%），归母净利润0.11 亿元（-85.77%），单季度毛利率为37.51%，环比有所下滑，公允价值变动净收益为-0.27 亿元，资产减值损失为-0.31 亿元，四季度非经常性损益对归母净利润影响较大。据公司2021-2022 年报，子公司贝克诺顿2022 年实现营收4.99 亿元（-16%）、净利润0.53 亿元（+31.24%），我们推测或因疫情影响以及部分产品进入集采，导致收入下滑，但利润率向好；公司血塞通口服剂产品因未参与部分省际联盟集采，导致血塞通系列口服产品收入同比下滑15.60%，而注射用血塞通（冻干）剂型收入同比增长72.64%，随着新版医保目录中血塞通注射剂型解除了临床适应症的使用限制，我们认为公司血塞通注射制剂在院内放量具备潜力。
昆中药、大健康及海外板块营收较好，收购后昆中药净利率有望提升。
2022 年昆中药实现营收13.19 亿元（+ 8.80%）、净利润1.42 亿元（+57.50%），其中参苓健脾胃颗粒、舒肝颗粒、香砂平胃颗粒分别同比增长22.66%、20.90%、29.22%，我们看好昆药被三九收购后零售端的协同效应，利润率有望提升。公司大健康业务2022 年销售规模突破2 亿元（+ 104%），系公司聚焦渠道拓展、单品打造、研发提速多频共振，随着三七系列新品上市，我们看好该业务贡献增量。公司海外业务2022 年实现强劲增长，实现营收5.62 亿元（+169.31%）。
研发创新多管齐下，打造新引擎注入新活力。据年报经营计划部分，2023 年公司将聚焦三七产业链，加快实现资源整合，深耕精品国药，推动大品种、打造强品牌。同时公司将立足自身研发特色，围绕“健康老龄化”需求，丰富产品管线，推进研发布局，创新驱动、多管齐下，促进新产品、新业务和新产业的快速成长，实现夯实研发创新基础与跨越式发展的同步。
盈利预测与评级： 我们预计昆药集团2023-2025 年营收分别为93.30/104.22/115.75 亿元，归母净利润为6.57/8.26/10.03 亿元，维持“增持”评级。
风险因素：行业政策变化风险、产品质量风险、研发创新风险、原材料价格波动风险、环保及安全经营风险。
Incident: On March 22, Kunming Pharmaceutical Group released its 2022 annual report. In 2022, the company achieved total revenue of 8.282 billion yuan, an increase of 0.35% over the previous year; achieved net profit of 383 million yuan, a decrease of 24.52% over the previous year; and realized operating profit of 497 million yuan, a decrease of 21.59% over the previous year.
Comment:
Revenue was at the same level as the impact of collection and the epidemic, and there are prospects for growth due to the lifting of the medical insurance suffix for injectable formulations. In 22Q4, the company achieved operating income of 2,089 million yuan (-6.15%), net profit of 11 million yuan (-85.77%), and gross margin for a single quarter was 37.51%, a decrease over the previous quarter. Net income from changes in fair value was -27 million yuan, and asset impairment losses were -031 million yuan. Non-recurring profit and loss in the fourth quarter had a great impact on Guimo's net profit. According to the company's 2021-2022 annual report, the subsidiary Beck Norton achieved revenue of 499 million yuan (-16%) and net profit of 503 million yuan (+31.24%) in 2022. We speculate that revenue may have declined due to the impact of the epidemic and the entry of some products into collection, but profit margins improved. The company's Xuesitong oral product revenue fell 15.60% year-on-year, while revenue from the injectable Hemoconitong (freeze-dried) dosage form increased 72.64% year-on-year with the new medical insurance catalogue. Acupressure injections The type removed the restrictions on use for clinical indications, and we believe there is potential for the company's Hemosiderm injectable preparation to be distributed in hospitals.
Revenue from the Kunming Traditional Chinese Medicine, Health, and Overseas sectors is relatively good, and the net interest rate of Kunming Traditional Chinese Medicine is expected to increase after the acquisition.
In 2022, Kunming Traditional Chinese Medicine achieved revenue of 1,319 million yuan (+ 8.80%) and net profit of 142 million yuan (+57.50%). Among them, Shen Lingjian's spleen and stomach pellets, liver relief granules, and fragrant sand flatstomach granules increased 22.66%, 20.90%, and 29.22%, respectively. We are optimistic about the synergistic effect of Kongyao's back-end acquisition by 39, and profit margins are expected to increase. The sales scale of the company's big health business exceeded 200 million yuan (+ 104%) in 2022. The company focused on channel expansion, single product creation, and accelerated R&D. With the launch of the 37 series of new products, we are optimistic that this business's contribution will increase. The company's overseas business achieved strong growth in 2022, achieving revenue of 562 million yuan (+169.31%).
R&D and innovation take a multi-pronged approach to build new engines to inject new vitality. According to the management plan section of the annual report, in 2023, the company will focus on the 37 industry chain, accelerate the integration of resources, cultivate quality Chinese medicines, promote a wide variety of products, and build a strong brand. At the same time, the company will build on its own R&D characteristics, focus on “healthy aging” needs, enrich the product pipeline, promote the R&D market, be innovation-driven and multi-pronged, promote the rapid growth of new products, new businesses, and new industries, and achieve synchronization between consolidating the foundation of R&D and innovation and leapfrogging development.
Profit forecast and rating: We expect KPC Group's revenue for 2023-2025 to be 93.30/104.22/11,575 billion yuan respectively, and the net profit of the mother is 657/826/1,003 billion yuan, maintaining the “increase in holdings” rating.
Risk factors: industry policy change risk, product quality risk, R&D innovation risk, raw material price fluctuation risk, environmental protection and safety management risk.
