归母净利润同比大幅上升。2022 年，公司预计实现归属于上市公司股东的净利润为3.75-4.05 亿元，上年同期实现2.14 亿元，同比增长76%-90%，扣非后净利润为3.33-3.63 亿元，上年同期实现2.07 亿元，同比增长61%-76%。
泛半导体材料业务营业收入大幅增长。半导体新材料的营业收入预计合计为 5.4 亿元，营收占比持续提升至约 20%水平。其中： CMP 抛光垫销售收入预计超 4.7 亿，同比增长 56%。柔性显示材料 YPI（黄色聚酰亚胺）和PSPI（光敏聚酰亚胺）均已在客户端实现稳步上量，合计销售收入预计为 0.5 亿元，同比增长 470%。CMP 抛光液、清洗液已实现部分产品规模化销售，合计销售收入近 0.2 亿元。
传统业务盈利水平同比增强。打印复印通用耗材业务营业收入近 22 亿元，且盈利能力同比显著增长。公司全产业链布局优势持续凸显，上游彩色化学碳粉、耗材芯片业务的营收及利润规模创近年新高；终端硒鼓发展良好，销量创近年新高，不仅扭亏为盈，且实现利润同比大幅增长；墨盒业务综合竞争能力持续稳健。
投资建议
预计公司2022-2024 年收入分别为27.40/35.38/43.13 亿元，同比增长16.3%/29.1%/21.9% ， 净利润分别为3.85/5.20/6.82 亿元， 同比增长80.3%/35.2%/30.9%。当前收盘价对应2023 年的PE 为45 倍。考虑到公司将会受益于进口替代，未来增长空间大，维持“买入”评级。
风险提示
产品研发不及预期，产能建设不及预期，市场竞争加剧。
Guimu's net profit rose sharply year over year. In 2022, the company expects net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies to be 375-405 million yuan, 214 million yuan for the same period last year, an increase of 76%-90% over the previous year, net profit after deduction of 333-363 million yuan, and 207 million yuan in the same period last year, an increase of 61% to 76% over the same period last year.
Revenue from the pan-semiconductor materials business increased dramatically. The total revenue of new semiconductor materials is expected to be 540 million yuan, and the share of revenue continues to rise to about 20%. Among them: CMP polishing pad sales revenue is expected to exceed 4.7 billion, an increase of 56% over the previous year. The flexible display materials YPI (yellow polyimide) and PSPI (photosensitive polyimide) have both achieved steady growth in clients. Total sales revenue is expected to be 50 billion yuan, an increase of 470% over the previous year. CMP polishing liquid and cleaning solution have achieved large-scale sales of some products, with a total sales revenue of nearly 0.2 billion yuan.
The profit level of traditional businesses increased year over year. The printing and copying general consumables business generated revenue of nearly 2.2 billion yuan, and profitability increased significantly over the same period last year. The advantages of the company's entire industry chain layout continue to be highlighted. The revenue and profit scale of the upstream color chemical toner and consumables chip business has reached new highs in recent years; terminal cartridges have developed well, and sales have reached new highs in recent years, not only turning a loss into a profit, but also achieving a sharp year-on-year increase in profit; the overall competitiveness of the cartridge business continues to be steady.
Investment advice
The company's revenue for 2022-2024 is estimated to be 2,740/35.38/4.313 billion yuan respectively, up 16.3%/29.1%/21.9% year on year, and net profit of 385/55/ 682 million yuan respectively, up 80.3%/35.2%/30.9% year on year. The current closing price is 45 times PE corresponding to 2023. Considering that the company will benefit from import substitution, there is plenty of room for future growth and maintain the “buy” rating.
Risk warning
Product development fell short of expectations, production capacity construction fell short of expectations, and market competition intensified.
