全年收入业绩继续承压，资产处置贡献Q4 收益。2022 年公司实现营业收入199.34 亿元，同比-5.49%（调整后），归母净利润31.4 亿元，同比-10.71%（调整后），扣非归母净利润26.15 亿元，同比-23.39%（调整后），EPS 为1.86 元/股，并拟10 派6.55 元（含税）。Q4 单季度实现营业收入46.24 亿元，同比-10.44%，归母净利润7.92 亿元，同比+0.64%，扣非归母净利润3.62 亿元，同比-51.6%，其中资产处置收益4.37 亿元主要为苏州工业园区土地回购补偿款贡献。
石膏板定价权优势凸显，防水业务依然承压。分产品看：1）石膏板收入133.65 亿元，同比-3.01%，占比67.04%，石膏板销量20.93 亿平，同比-11.98%，需求承压背景下销量明显下降，公司通过提价传导成本压力，收入整体表现好于销量；我们测算石膏板销售单价6.39 元/平米，同比+10.2%，单位成本4.15 元/平米，同比+14.2%，单位毛利2.23 元/平米，毛利率34.95%，同比-2.3pp，毛利率虽有下滑，但仍保持在相对高位显示了高市占率下公司的定价权优势；2）轻钢龙骨收入25.17 亿元，同比-8.66%，占比12.63%，毛利率18.94%，同比+0.51pct；3）防水分部收入31.45 亿元，同比-18.8%，占比15.78%，其中防水卷材/防水涂料/ 防水工程分别为21.6/4.45/4.53 亿元， 同比-15.2%/-16.0%/-34.9%，防水卷材毛利率17.25%，同比-10.10pp,受地产需求低迷和成本上涨影响，防水收入和盈利继续承压。
现金流表现优异有韧性，资债结构保持稳健。2022 年公司实现经营性净现金流36.64 亿元，同比-4.3%，其中Q4 单季度为21.6 亿元，同比+13.9%，单季度回款表现优异，收现比1.42，上年同期为1.31。截至2022 年末，公司资产负债率仅25.0%，同比-1.49pp，带息负债率16.4%，同比-2.1pp，彰显优质稳健的资债结构。
风险提示：地产需求不及预期；原材料上涨超预期；防水业务整合不及预期；渠道拓展不及预期。
投资建议：优化渠道定位助力发展，看好长期成长性，维持“买入”评级公司作为石膏板龙头，成本、规模领先优势持续巩固，市占率继续提升，并积极优化渠道定位，大力拓展县乡、家装零售业务，奠定长期发展基础，同时防水加速拓展，涂料稳步推进，有望受益防水新规落地和成本下行带来利润弹性和成长空间，看好需求端改善和公司长期成长性，预计23-25 年EPS分别为2.02/2.37/2.74 元/股，对应PE 为14.1/12.0/10.4x，维持“买入”评级。
Full-year income performance continued to be under pressure, with asset disposal contributing to Q4 earnings. In 2022, the company realized operating income of 19.934 billion yuan, year-on-year-5.49% (adjusted), homed net profit of 3.14 billion yuan, year-on-year-10.71% (adjusted), non-homed net profit of 2.615 billion yuan, year-on-year-23.39% (adjusted), EPS of 1.86 yuan per share, and proposed 10 payouts of 6.55 yuan (including tax). Q4 realized operating income of 4.624 billion yuan in a single quarter,-10.44% of the same period last year, and net profit of 792 million yuan, + 0.64% of the same period last year, deducting 362 million yuan of net profit of non-return of the parent, or-51.6% of the same period last year. Among them, 437 million yuan of asset disposal income mainly contributed to the compensation for land repurchase of Suzhou Industrial Park.
The advantage of plasterboard pricing power is highlighted, and the waterproofing business is still under pressure. According to the products: 1) the income of plasterboard is 13.365 billion yuan, which is-3.01% compared with the same period last year, accounting for 67.04%. The sales volume of plasterboard is 2.093 billion flat, which is-11.98% compared with the same period last year. Under the background of demand pressure, the sales volume decreased significantly, and the company transmitted cost pressure by raising prices. The overall performance of revenue is better than sales volume. We estimate that the unit price of plasterboard sales is 6.39 yuan per square meter, 10.2% year on year, unit cost 4.15 yuan per square meter, year on year + 14.2%, unit gross margin 2.23 yuan per square meter, gross profit 34.95%, year-on-year-2.3pp, although the gross profit margin has declined, it remains relatively high, which shows the company's pricing power under the high market share. 2) Light steel keel income 2.517 billion yuan, year-on-year-8.66%, accounting for 12.63%, gross profit margin 18.94%, year-on-year + 0.51pct 3) the income of the waterproofing division is 3.145 billion yuan, year-on-year-18.8%, accounting for 15.78%, of which waterproof roll material / waterproof paint / waterproofing project is 21.6 million yuan, 445 million yuan, respectively, year-on-year-15.2% picks 16.0% picks up 34.9%, waterproof roll material gross profit margin 17.25%, year-on-year-10.10pp, waterproofing income and profits continue to be under pressure due to the depressed real estate demand and rising costs.
The cash flow is excellent and resilient, and the capital and debt structure remains robust. In 2022, the company realized operating net cash flow of 3.664 billion yuan,-4.3% compared with the same period last year, of which Q4 was 2.16 billion yuan in a single quarter, + 13.9% compared with the same period last year. By the end of 2022, the company's asset-liability ratio was only 25.0%, year-on-year-1.49pp, interest-bearing debt ratio 16.4%, year-on-year-2.1pp, highlighting a high-quality and robust capital-debt structure.
Risk tips: real estate demand is lower than expected; raw materials rise faster than expected; waterproofing business integration is not as expected; channel expansion is not as expected.
Investment suggestions: optimize channel positioning to help development, be optimistic about long-term growth, maintain "buy" rating companies as plasterboard leaders, continue to consolidate the leading advantages in cost and scale, continue to increase market share, and actively optimize channel positioning, vigorously expand the retail business of counties and townships and home improvement, lay the foundation for long-term development, accelerate the expansion of waterproofing, and promote the paint steadily. It is expected to benefit from the profit flexibility and growth space brought by the new waterproofing regulations and downward costs, and is optimistic about the improvement on the demand side and the company's long-term growth. It is estimated that in 23-25, the EPS will be 2.02 EPS 2.37 shock 2.74 yuan per share, corresponding to 14.1 shock 12.0 shock 10.4x, maintaining the "buy" rating.
