事件：公司发布2022 年报，2022 年实现营业收入约199 亿元、同比下降5.49%，实现归母净利润约31.4 亿元、同比下降10.71%，扣非归母净利润约26.2 亿元、同比降约23.39%。拟向全体股东每10 股派发现金红利6.55元（含税）。
点评：
地产资金紧张、疫情反复，销量承压。2022 年受到地产资金紧张以及疫情反复的影响，2022 年的竣工同比下降15%，此外我们预计商业、餐饮、办公的装修也受到疫情不同程度的拖累。受上述因素影响，行业产量从2021 年的35.1 亿平下滑至2022 年30.73 亿平。
逆势提价彰显深厚护城河，石膏板单平毛利保持稳定、龙骨毛利率逆势提升。
1）2022 年需求下滑幅度较大，然公司借助于自身深厚护城河以及高市占率，逆势将石膏板均价从2021 年的5.8 元/平提升至6.4 元/平，在煤炭等成本涨幅明显的背景下保证了石膏板单平毛利的稳定。
2）公司龙骨业务收入下滑8.7%，小于石膏板销量下滑幅度，我们预计配套率仍在提升，借助于石膏板强大的渠道，龙骨业务毛利率由2021 年的18.4%提升至2022 年的18.9%，亦是公司护城河的侧面体现。
分红率小幅提升。在建设中国特色估值体系的进程中离不开国央企自身竞争力、以及对资本市场回报的提升，我们测算公司2022 分红计划显示的分红率约35.3%，较2021 年的31.5%有一定的提升。我们认为在石膏板市占率已然较高、现金流优异的背景下，公司具备提高分红比例的条件，以实现与资本市场的双向奔赴，进而实现中国特色估值体系的建设。
维持“优于大市”评级。中长期来看，环保大背景下小企业发展受限，随着公司对行业的整合、市场格局的优化，公司盈利中枢有望持续提升，同时国内石膏板布局愈发完善、市占率继续提升，全球化及龙骨为公司打开成长空间，公司分红率有所提升。我们预计2023~2025 年归母净利润分别为41.99、48.33、56.39 亿元，对应EPS 分别为2.49、2.86、3.34 元/股，我们给予公司2023 年16-20 倍PE，对应合理价值区间39.84-49.80 元，维持“优于大市”评级。
风险提示。需求超预期下滑，石膏板新增产能超预期。
Incident: The company released its 2022 annual report. In 2022, it achieved operating revenue of about 19.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.49%, a year-on-year net profit of about 3.14 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.71%, after deducting net profit of about 2.62 billion yuan from non-homo, a year-on-year decrease of about 23.39%. It is proposed to distribute a cash dividend of 6.55 yuan (tax included) for every 10 shares to all shareholders.
Comment:
Real estate capital is tight, and sales are under pressure due to repeated epidemics. Due to tight real estate funding and repeated epidemics in 2022, completion in 2022 fell 15% year-on-year. Furthermore, we expect commercial, catering, and office decoration to be dragged down to varying degrees by the pandemic. Affected by these factors, industry output fell from 3.51 billion square meters in 2021 to 3,073 billion square meters in 2022.
The price increase against the trend shows a deep moat. The gross profit margin of a single plasterboard flat has remained stable, and the gross margin of the keel has bucked the trend.
1) Demand declined significantly in 2022. However, with the help of its own deep moat and high market share, the company bucked the trend and raised the average price of gypsum board from 5.8 yuan/square meter in 2021 to 6.4 yuan/square meter, which guaranteed the stability of the gross profit of a single plasterboard flat against the backdrop of obvious increases in the cost of coal, etc.
2) The company's revenue from the keel business fell 8.7%, less than the decline in gypsum board sales. We expect the support rate to continue to increase. With the help of strong gypsum board channels, the gross margin of the keel business increased from 18.4% in 2021 to 18.9% in 2022, which is also a reflection of the company's moat.
The dividend rate increased slightly. In the process of building a valuation system with Chinese characteristics, it is inseparable from the competitiveness of central enterprises themselves and the improvement of capital market returns. We estimate that the dividend rate shown in the company's 2022 dividend plan is about 35.3%, a certain increase from 31.5% in 2021. We believe that in a context where the market share of gypsum board is already high and the cash flow is excellent, the company has the conditions to increase the dividend ratio in order to achieve a two-way flow with the capital market, thereby realizing the construction of a valuation system with Chinese characteristics.
Maintain a “better than the market” rating. Looking at the medium to long term, the development of small enterprises is limited in the context of environmental protection. With the company's integration of the industry and optimization of the market pattern, the company's profit center is expected to continue to improve. At the same time, the domestic gypsum board layout is further improved and the market share continues to increase. Globalization and the company's dividend rate has increased. We expect net profit of 41.99, 48.33, and 5.639 billion yuan respectively from 2023 to 2025, and the corresponding EPS of 2.49, 2.86, and 3.34 yuan/share respectively. We gave the company 16-20 times PE in 2023, corresponding to a reasonable value range of 39.84-49.80 yuan, maintaining the “superior market” rating.
Risk warning. Demand fell more than expected, and the new production capacity of gypsum board exceeded expectations.
