Main points of investment:
Litigation results in the provision of liabilities affecting profits. The company achieved an income of 5.341 billion yuan in 22 years, + 4.41% year-on-year, and the return net profit was-592 million yuan,-179.82% compared with the same period last year, mainly affected by the judgment of the first instance of industrial joint litigation, with an estimated liability of 1.178 billion yuan and non-return net profit of 556 million yuan, which is-22.5% compared with the same period last year.
Of this total, Q4 earned 1.385 billion yuan,-18.71% compared with the same period last year, and the net profit returned to the mother was-1.011 billion yuan, deducting the non-return net profit of 153 million yuan,-57.95% from the same period last year. The net operating cash flow is 128 million yuan,-80.39% compared with the same period last year. We expect to increase the procurement of raw materials and packaging materials such as soybeans and accessories.
22 years of rising costs have put pressure on gross margins. The company's 22-year gross profit margin of 31.7%, year-on-year-3.17pcts, we expect to be mainly affected by factors such as rising costs. The rate of sales expenses is 8.85%, which is + 0.79pcts compared with the same period last year, which is mainly due to the increase in salary and expenses of sales staff and the increase in business expenses. The rate of management expenses is 9.4%, which is + 1.1pcts compared with the same period last year, which is mainly due to the impact of the payment of stable job subsidies and the increase in performance bonuses and the increase in salary expenditure for managers compared with the same period last year. Financial expense rate-0.08%, year-on-year-0.47pct, parent net interest rate-11.09%, year-on-year-25.59pct. 22Q4 gross profit margin 31.65%, year-on-year-6.81pcts, sales expense rate 9.93%, year-on-year + 3.33pcts, management expense rate 8.94%, year-on-year + 4.13pct, financial expense rate-0.19%, year-on-year-0.53pct, return to the mother net profit rate-72.99%, year-on-year-95.01pct.
Condiment revenue in 22 years + 7.3% compared with the same period last year. In 2022, condiment revenue was 4.955 billion yuan, + 7.3% year-on-year, and real estate business income was 250 million yuan,-31.75% year-on-year. From the point of view of condiment products, the revenue / growth rate of 22Q4 products is 81.3 billion yuan /-4.09% for soy sauce, 160 million yuan / 2.98% for chicken powder, 132 million yuan / 2.58% for edible oil and 195 million yuan / 1.85% for other products. On the new products, high-end zero-added soy sauce and Kitchen Gold Award crayfish seasoning were launched in 2022. In 2023, the company will speed up the development of mid-range desalination soy sauce products and create new mid-range salt reduction products with kitchen-state flavor, outstanding selling points and display advantages.
In the past 22 years, the markets in the central, western and northern regions have grown rapidly. From a regional point of view, the revenue / growth rates of the eastern, southern, central and western regions and the north in 22 years were 1.133 billion yuan / + 0.77%, 2.041 billion yuan / + 7.01%, 1.006 billion yuan / + 11.23% and 709 million yuan / + 12.58%, respectively. The revenue / growth rates of 22Q4 in the east, south, central and western regions and north were 300 million yuan /-15.92%, 545 million yuan /-2.55%, 273 million yuan / + 9.18% and 183 million yuan / + 15.7%, respectively. In 2022, the net increase of dealers will be 301 to 2003, the development rate of districts and counties will reach 68.12%, and the development rate of prefecture-level cities will reach 93.47%. In 2023, the net increase of dealers will ensure that the number of dealers will exceed 2200.
Profit forecast and valuation. We estimate that the EPS of the company in 23-25 will be 0.94, 1.1 and 1.33 respectively, and the PE of the comparable company in 2023 will be 42-56 times. Give the company 35-40 times PE for 23 years, corresponding to the reasonable value range of 32.9-37.6 yuan, and give it a rating of "better than the big city".
Risk hint. The influence of fluctuation of upstream raw material price; the release of production capacity is not up to expectation; the competition in the industry is intensified, etc.