投资要点
事件：公司公告2022 年年报，2022 年公司实现营收/归母净利润/扣非归母净利润53.41/-5.92/5.56亿元，同比+4.41%/-179.82%/-22.50%。2022Q4 公司实现营收/归母净利润/扣非归母净利润13.85/-10.11/1.53 亿元，同比-18.71%/-369.42%/-57.95%，由于房地产业务贡献较少，表观利润略低于预期，但调味品业务利润符合预期。
商品房销售低于年初预期，调味品好于年初预期。2022 年公司营收同比+4.41%，其中母公司及中汇合创子公司确认商品房收入减少（年初预计4 亿，实际预计2.1 亿左右）；美味鲜贡献49.55亿元，同比+7.30%，高于年初预期。1）核心品类量价齐增，2022 年酱油/鸡精鸡粉/食用油/其他收入同比+7.01%/+9.18%/+1.87%/+9.32%，21Q4 的提价导致酱油、鸡精鸡粉、食用油价同比分别+1.8%、+3.6%、+11.0%，除食用油因提价销量同比-8.3%外，酱油、鸡精鸡粉销量同比+5.2%、+5.4%，主要得益于渠道扩张、提质增效的持续，2022 年公司净增经销商301 个，经销商数量达到2003 个，区县开发率达到68.12%，地级市开发率达到93.47%。2）品类拓展延续，鸡精鸡粉占收入比重同比+0.5pct，其他调味品占收入比重同比+0.6pct。2022Q4 美味鲜收入同比-1.6%，主要系去年同期提价刺激下基数较高及疫情达峰对需求造成影响。
成本压力高企，毛利率承压。2022 年毛利率为31.70%，同比-3.17pct，其中调味品毛利率30.22%，同比-2.86pct，主要系成本压力高企所致，酱油、鸡精鸡粉毛利率同比-4.06pct、-2.33pct，直接材料吨成本同比+9.77%、+6.79%可以验证。2022Q4 毛利率为31.65%，同比-6.81pct，除房地产业务确认较少外（21 年基本计入Q4），调味品业务在成本压力下预计毛利率持续承压。
剔除未决诉讼计提影响，成本压力及费投提升下，调味品盈利能力承压。未决诉讼计提负债11.78亿元，导致2022 年归母净利率-11.09%，同比-25.59pct，剔除该影响，预计归母净利率为10.97%，同比-3.53pct，主要系房地产业务贡献低于预期，美味鲜归母净利率为11.04%，同比-2.1pct，调味品盈利能力承压拆分如下：1）成本压力下毛利率同比下滑；2）费用投入恢复常态，2022 年总费率18.18%，同比+1.43pct。剔除未决诉讼计提影响，2022Q4 归母净利率为12.08%，同比-9.95pct，其中美味鲜归母净利率12.48%，同比-3.11pct，除成本压力外，与费用投入常态化提升有关，2021Q4 提价刺激导致渠道积极性高、费投基数低，2022Q4 总费率18.69%，同比+6.93pct可以说明。
盈利预测及投资建议：我们根据公司年报，调整了盈利预测，预计公司2023-2025 年收入为57.56/65.33/75.17 亿元，同比+7.8%/+13.5%/+15.1%，实现归母净利润7.82/9.02/10.83 亿元，同比+32.0%/+15.4%/+20.0%，对应2023 年3 月21 日收盘价，PE 估值为36/31/26x，维持“增持”评级。
风险提示：渠道扩张效果低于预期；控股股东变更进程拖延较长；营销总更变带来的渠道经营风险。
Key points of investment
Incident: The company announced its 2022 annual report. In 2022, the company achieved revenue/net profit attributable to the mother/net profit of 53.41/-592/556 million yuan, +4.41%/-179.82%/-22.50% over the same period last year. 2022Q4 achieved revenue/net profit attributable to the mother/net profit after deducting non-return to the mother of 1,385/-10.11/153 million yuan, compared to -18.71%/-369.42%/-57.95%. Due to the small contribution of the real estate business, apparent profit was slightly lower than expected, but profit from the condiment business was in line with expectations.
Commercial housing sales fell short of expectations at the beginning of the year, and condiments were better than expectations at the beginning of the year. The company's revenue in 2022 was +4.41% year on year. Among them, the parent company and Zhonghui Hechuang subsidiary confirmed a decrease in commercial housing revenue (estimated 400 million at the beginning of the year, actual forecast of about 210 million yuan); Delicious Fresh contributed 4.955 billion yuan, +7.30% year on year, higher than the forecast at the beginning of the year. 1) The volume and price of the core category increased sharply. In 2022, soy sauce/chicken powder/cooking oil/other revenue was +7.01%/+9.18%/+1.87%/+9.32%. The 21Q4 price increase caused the prices of soy sauce, chicken essence, and cooking oil to +1.8%, +3.6%, +11.0% year-on-year. Except for cooking oil due to price increases of -8.3%, sales of soy sauce and chicken powder were +5.2% and +5.4% year on year, mainly due to channel expansion and continuous increase in quality and efficiency In 2022, the company had a net increase of 301 dealers, dealers The number reached 2003, the district and county development rate reached 68.12%, and the prefecture-level city development rate reached 93.47%. 2) Category expansion continues. Chicken essence and chicken powder account for +0.5pct of revenue year over year, and other condiments account for +0.6pct of revenue year over year. 2022Q4 Delicious Fresh's revenue was -1.6% year on year, mainly due to the high base stimulated by price increases in the same period last year and the impact of the peak of the epidemic on demand.
Cost pressure is high, and gross margin is under pressure. The gross margin in 2022 was 31.70%, -3.17pct year on year. Among them, the gross profit margin for condiments was 30.22%, -2.86pct year on year, mainly due to high cost pressure. The gross margin of soy sauce and chicken powder was -4.06pct and -2.33pct year-on-year, and the direct material tonne cost was +9.77% and +6.79% can be verified. The gross margin of 2022Q4 was 31.65%, or 6.81 pct compared to the previous year. Except for the few confirmations of the real estate business (which was basically taken into Q4 in '21), the condiment business is expected to continue to be under pressure on gross margin under cost pressure.
Excluding the impact of pending litigation calculations, the profitability of condiments is under pressure due to increased cost pressure and cost investment. The outstanding lawsuit accrued debt of 1,178 million yuan, leading to a net interest rate of -11.09% year on year in 2022, -25.59 pct year on year. Excluding this effect, the net interest rate of return to the mother is expected to be 10.97%, year-on-year -3.53pct, mainly due to the fact that the contribution of the real estate business was lower than expected. The net interest rate of delicious fresh to the mother was 11.04%, -2.1pct year on year. The breakdown of condiment profitability pressure was as follows: 1) gross margin declined year-on-year under cost pressure; 2) Expense investment returned to normal, with the total interest rate in 2022 being 18.18%, +1.43pct year on year. Excluding the accrual impact of pending lawsuits, the net interest rate of 2022Q4 was 12.08%, -9.95pct compared to the previous year. Among them, the net interest rate of Delicious Fresh Return to Mother was 12.48%, -3.11pct over the previous year. In addition to cost pressure, it was related to the normalization increase in cost investment. The 2021Q4 price increase stimulus led to high channel motivation and a low fee investment base. The total rate of 2022Q4 was 18.69%, +6.93pct over the previous year, as can be explained.
Profit forecast and investment advice: We adjusted our profit forecast based on the company's annual report. The company's revenue for 2023-2025 is estimated to be 57.56/65.33/7517 million yuan, +7.8%/+13.5%/+15.1% year on year, achieving net profit of 7.82/902/1,083 million yuan compared to the previous year, +32.0%/+15.4%/+20.0%, corresponding to the closing price of March 21, 2023. PE valuation is 36/31/26x, maintaining the “growth” rating.
Risk warning: The effect of channel expansion is lower than expected; the controlling shareholder change process has been delayed for a long time; channel operation risks brought about by overall marketing changes.
