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长春高新(000661):地产剥离落地 看好23年新患恢复高增长

Changchun Hi-Tech (000661): Real estate divestment is implemented, and I'm optimistic that new cases will return to high growth in 23

德邦證券 ·  Mar 21, 2023 18:20  · Researches

Incident: The company announced that it intends to transfer 100% of its shares in Gaoxin Real Estate to the controlling shareholder Chaoda Group. The consideration for this transaction will be raised by Chaoda Group through the issuance of exchangeable corporate bonds.

Divestment of the real estate business is expected to improve the company's cash flow and benefit the company's long-term development. The high-tech real estate business has a great impact on the company's overall cash flow. The transfer is carried out through an agreement transfer. The company will further focus on the core biomedical business, which is conducive to enhancing the company's balance and liability structure, enhancing the company's sustainable development capacity, enhancing the company's profitability and core competitiveness, and benefiting the company's long-term development.

Considering the low base in 2022, we expect the number of new patients enrolled in 2023 to exceed expectations. Considering that the number of new patients in 2022 was at a low base level due to the impact of the epidemic on outpatient visits, we determine that starting in March 2023, the number of new patients enrolled is expected to accelerate, and the growth rate of new cases for the full year of 2023 may exceed expectations. In terms of the growth hormone adult market, the company is also continuing to increase department education, and sales of growth hormone to the adult market may be expected to gain strength in 2023. In terms of the layout of pediatrics and gynecology, after several years of continuous layout, the company's pediatric product segment business has now expanded into the fields of endocrinology, respiration, digestion, blood, allergies, ophthalmology, dentistry, etc. The adult sector business has basically formed an industrial layout covering the fields of reproduction, gynecology, skin, nerves, endocrine diseases, etc.

Profit forecasts and investment recommendations. Considering that the penetration rate of growth hormone is still low and the growth momentum for the company's future diversified business development, we expect the company's net profit to be 42.4/53.4/7.10 billion yuan respectively in 2022-2024, and the corresponding PE is 16/13/10 times respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating.

Risk warning: risk of increased market competition; risk of product sales falling short of expectations; related policy risks.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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