中炬高新发布公告：2022 年实现营收53.4 亿元，同增4.4%，归母净利润-5.9 亿元，同减179.8%。
投资要点
业绩符合预期，诉讼事件致利润转负
2022 年公司营收53.4 亿元（+4.4%），归母净利润-5.9 亿元（-179.8%），主要系与工业联合三宗诉讼，计提预计负债11.8 亿元；剔除诉讼影响，归母净利润5.86 亿元（-21%），主要系原材料上涨。2022Q4 营收13.9 亿元（-18.7%），主要系疫情影响，归母净利润-10.1 亿元（-369.4%）。2022 年毛利率31.7%（-3.2pct），净利率-10.4%（-25.7pct）；2022Q4 毛利率31.7%（-6.8pct），净利率-72.3%（-95.1pct）。2022 销售费用率/管理费用率/财务费用率8.9%/9.4%/-0.1%，同增0.8/1.1/0.5pct，2022Q4 销售费用率/管理费用率/财务费用率9.9%/8.9%/-0.2%，同增3.3/4.1/-0.5pct。
量价稳健增长，其他类产品发展可期
2022 年酱油/鸡精鸡粉/食用油/其他产品分别收入30.3/6.0/5.0/7.7 亿元，同增7.0%/9.2%/1.9%/9.3%。2022Q4 酱油/鸡精鸡粉/食用油/其他产品分别同增-4.1%/3.0%/2.6%/1.8%。
2022 年东部/南部/中西部/北部分别收入11.3/20.4/10.1/7.1 亿元，同增0.8%/7.0%/11.2%/12.6%。2022Q4 公司东部/南部/中西部/北部分别收入3.0/5.4/2.7/1.8 亿元，同增-15.9%/-2.5%/9.2%/15.7%。2022 年酱油/鸡精鸡粉/食用油/其他销量50.3/3.2/3.2/12.9 万吨，同增5.2%/5.4%/-4.7%/3.2%；吨价6016/18754/15649/5949 元/吨，同增1.8%/3.6%/11.0%/4.9%。2022Q4 净增60 家经销商至2003 家。
盈利预测
预计2023-2025 年EPS 为1.02/1.21/1.41 元，当前股价对应PE 分别38/32/28 倍，维持“买入”投资评级。
风险提示
宏观经济下行风险、消费复苏不及预期、产能建设或利用不及预期、控股股东债务风险等。
Zhongju Hi-Tech announced that it achieved revenue of 5.34 billion yuan in 2022, an increase of 4.4% over the same period, while the net profit of the mother was 590 million yuan, a decrease of 179.8%.
Key points of investment
Performance was in line with expectations, and profits turned negative as a result of litigation
In 2022, the company's revenue was 5.34 billion yuan (+4.4%), and net profit was -590 million yuan (-179.8%), mainly due to three joint lawsuits with industry, accounting for estimated liabilities of 1.18 billion yuan; excluding the impact of lawsuits, Guimo's net profit was 586 million yuan (-21%), mainly due to an increase in raw materials. 2022Q4's revenue was 1.39 billion yuan (-18.7%), mainly due to the impact of the epidemic, and net profit of the mother was -1.01 billion yuan (-369.4%). 2022 gross profit margin 31.7% (-3.2pct), net interest rate -10.4% (-25.7pct); 2022Q4 gross profit margin 31.7% (-6.8pct), net profit margin -72.3% (-95.1pct). 2022 Sales Expense Rate/Management Expense Rate/Financial Expense Ratio 8.9%/9.4%/-0.1%, same increase of 0.8/1.1/0.5pct, 2022Q4 Sales Expense Rate/Management Expense Rate/Financial Expense Ratio 9.9%/-0.2%, same increase of 3.3/4.1/-0.5pct.
Volume and price are growing steadily, and the development of other types of products can be expected
In 2022, revenue from soy sauce, chicken essence, chicken powder, cooking oil, and other products was 30.3/6.0/5.0/770 million yuan respectively, an increase of 7.0%/9.2%/1.9%/9.3%. 2022Q4 soy sauce, chicken essence, chicken powder, cooking oil, and other products increased by -4.1%/3.0%/2.6%/1.8%, respectively.
In 2022, the East/South/Midwest/North split revenue was 11.3/20.4/10.1/7.1 billion, an increase of 0.8%/7.0%/11.2%/12.6%. The revenue of the 2022Q4 company in the East/South/Midwest/North was 30/5.4/27/180 million yuan, an increase of -15.9%/-2.5%/9.2%/15.7%. In 2022, sales of soy sauce/chicken powder/cooking oil/other products were 50.3/3.2/3.2/129,000 tons, an increase of 5.2%/5.4%/-4.7%/3.2%; the ton price was 6016/18754/15649/5949 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.8%/3.6%/11.0%/4.9%. 2022Q4 saw a net increase of 60 dealers to 2003.
Profit forecasting
EPS is expected to be 1.02/1.21/1.41 yuan in 2023-2025. The current stock price corresponds to PE 38/32/28 times respectively, maintaining the “buy” investment rating.
Risk warning
Macroeconomic downturn risks, consumption recovery falling short of expectations, capacity construction or utilization falling short of expectations, controlling shareholder debt risk, etc.
