事项：
理想汽车发布2022 年四季度和全年业绩报告。2022 年公司实现营业收入452.9亿元（+67.7%），净亏损达到20.1 亿元（同比扩大526.0%），其中四季度公司实现营业收入176.5 亿元，同环比分别增加66.2%/88.9%，实现净利润2.6 亿元。
平安观点：
四季度交付量符合预期。2022 年四季度公司交付量达到46319 台，同比增长31.5%，环比增长74.6%，四季度交付量符合此前公司给出的交付指引。公司四季度实现车辆销售收入172.7 亿元，对应单车营收达到37.3万元，这主要得益于L9 交付使得公司单车营收增加。毛利润方面，公司四季度汽车销售毛利率达到20.0%，相比22 年一二季度均有所下滑，主要是由于理想ONE 库存以及理想L8 爬坡的影响。公司给出的2023 年一季度的交付指引为5.2~5.5 万台，营收指引为174.5 亿~184.5 亿元，对应单车营收约为33.5 万元，公司1 月交付量为15141 台，预计3 月份交付量有望超过2 万台。
四季度费用端控制较好，单季度实现盈利。公司四季度实现归母净利润2.6 亿元，这主要得益于公司在四季度良好的费用管控能力。研发费用方面，公司四季度研发费用为20.7 亿元，环比仅增长14.7%，对应研发费用率11.7%，全年研发费用为67.8 亿元，同比增长106.3%。销售管理费用方面，公司四季度销售管理费用为16.3 亿元，环比仅增长8.1%，销售管理费用率为9.2%，全年公司销售管理费用为56.7 亿元，销售管理费用率为12.5%，低于研发费用率，2023 年公司销售门店数量将达到400 家，相比2022 年底增加约112 家，并向二三线城市下沉。
2023 年公司的目标是占据30-50 万元豪华SUV 市场份额的20%。公司预计L7/8/9 三款车型（不含Air 版）的稳态月销量为2.5 万台，L7/L8 Air版车型将于4 月初交付，届时公司的稳态月销量将达到3 万台。纯电车型方面，公司的首款纯电车型将在北京工厂量产，但预计不会在23 年上市交付。此外公司L 系列第四款车型L6 预计将于2024 年推出，其售价预计在20-30 万元。
盈利预测与投资建议：结合公司最新情况，我们调整公司2023~2024 净利润预测为17.1 亿/55.4 亿（原预测为15.2 亿/66.1亿），新增公司2025 年营收预测为2247.0 亿元，对应净利润预测为113.0 亿元。公司是造车新势力中最快完成2023 年新车型布局的车企，同时我们认为公司是2023 年增长确定性最强的新势力车企之一，有望凭借L7L8L9 三款车型在23 年实现高速增长，维持公司“推荐”评级。
风险提示：1）公司23 年三款车型销量不佳，导致公司业绩不达预期；2）公司暂无纯电车型上市，市场对公司纯电车型的接受度有待验证；3）纯电车型上市后，公司各项投入可能大幅增加。
Matters:
Ideal Auto released results for the fourth quarter and full year of 2022. In 2022, the company achieved operating income of 45.29 billion yuan (+67.7%), and net loss reached 2.001 billion yuan (up 526.0% year on year). Among them, the company achieved operating income of 17.65 billion yuan in the fourth quarter, an increase of 66.2%/88.9% over the same period last year, and achieved net profit of 260 million yuan.
Ping An's point of view:
Fourth-quarter deliveries were in line with expectations. The company delivered 46,319 units in the fourth quarter of 2022, an increase of 31.5% over the previous year and an increase of 74.6% over the previous quarter. The delivery volume for the fourth quarter was in line with the delivery guidelines previously given by the company. The company achieved vehicle sales revenue of 17.27 billion yuan in the fourth quarter, and corresponding bicycle revenue reached 373,000 yuan. This was mainly due to the increase in the company's bicycle revenue due to L9 delivery. In terms of gross profit, the company's gross margin of automobile sales reached 20.0% in the fourth quarter. Compared with the first and second quarters of '22, there was a decline, mainly due to the impact of Ideal ONE inventory and Ideal L8 climbing. The delivery guidelines given by the company for the first quarter of 2023 are 52,000 to 55,000 units, the revenue guide is 17.45 billion to 18.45 billion yuan. The corresponding bicycle revenue is about 335,000 yuan. The company delivered 15,141 units in January. It is expected that the delivery volume in March will exceed 20,000 units.
Expense control was good in the fourth quarter, and profits were achieved in a single quarter. The company achieved net profit of 260 million yuan in the fourth quarter. This was mainly due to the company's good ability to manage expenses in the fourth quarter. In terms of R&D expenses, the company's R&D expenses in the fourth quarter were 2.07 billion yuan, an increase of only 14.7% over the previous quarter. The corresponding R&D expenses ratio was 11.7%. The annual R&D expenses were 6.78 billion yuan, an increase of 106.3% over the previous year. In terms of sales management expenses, the company's sales management expenses in the fourth quarter were 1.63 billion yuan, an increase of only 8.1% over the previous month. The sales management expenses rate was 9.2%, the company's annual sales management expenses were 5.67 billion yuan, and the sales management expenses ratio was 12.5%. Lower than the R&D expenses rate, the number of stores sold by the company will reach 400 in 2023, an increase of about 112 over the end of 2022, and sink to second- and third-tier cities.
The company's goal in 2023 is to occupy 20% of the 30-500,000 yuan luxury SUV market share. The company expects the steady state monthly sales of the three L7/8/9 models (excluding the Air version) to be 25,000 units, and the L7/L8 Air models will be delivered in early April. At that time, the company's steady state monthly sales volume will reach 30,000 units. In terms of pure electric models, the company's first pure electric model will be mass-produced at the Beijing plant, but it is not expected to be marketed and delivered in '23. Furthermore, the fourth model in the company's L series, the L6, is expected to be launched in 2024, and its price is expected to be 20-30 thousand yuan.
Profit forecast and investment advice: Based on the company's latest situation, we adjusted the company's 2023-2024 net profit forecast to 1.71 billion/5.54 billion (the original forecast was 1.52 billion/6.61 billion yuan). The 2025 revenue forecast for the new company was 224.07 billion yuan, and the corresponding net profit forecast was 11.30 billion yuan. The company is the fastest car company among the new car builders to complete the new model layout in 2023. At the same time, we believe that the company is one of the new car companies with the strongest certainty of growth in 2023. It is expected that the L7\ L8\ L9 models will achieve rapid growth in 23 and maintain the company's “recommended” rating.
Risk warning: 1) The company's three models did not sell well in '23, causing the company's performance to fall short of expectations; 2) The company has not yet launched any pure electric models, and the market's acceptance of the company's pure electric models has yet to be verified; 3) After the pure electric model is listed, the company's various investments may increase dramatically.
