公司发布业绩快报：2022 年营业收入106.38 亿元，同比+78.45%；归母净利润29.17 亿元，同比+70.43%；扣非归母净利润27.33 亿元，同比+67.43%，位于业绩预告中枢，符合市场预期。单4Q22 公司收入31.76 亿元，同比+61.21%；归母净利润9.09 亿元，同比+51.09%。全年归母净利率27.42%，同比-1.29ppt；单4Q22 归母净利率28.62%，环比+2.70ppt。
光伏耗材业绩有望超市场预期。公司光伏石英坩埚产能快速扩张，根据产业端反馈，36 寸坩埚单价已经达到2.4-2.5 万元/个（含税），供需紧张背景下价格仍在持续上行，公司是具备原材料储备和领先技术的坩埚企业，我们认为盈利能力有望超过市场预期；金刚线3000 万公里产能去年11 月份投产，我们判断有望在今年出货。
碳化硅长期仍具备广阔成长空间。1）外延设备：根据微信公众号，公司2 月份成功发布6 英寸双片式碳化硅外延设备，公司外延设备实现国产替代，22年市占率位居国内第一，23 年出货量有望快速增长。2）衬底片：此前特斯拉拉试图推出“降低75%SiC用量”的电驱方案，我们认为其主要系通过技术降本降低碳化硅用量；而其他品牌中高端车型积极拥抱SiC的趋势暂未变化。上游原材料扩产受限情况下，行业成长速度仍由供给端决定，我们认为SiC依靠技术降本和性能优势带来渗透率提升的趋势依然不变。公司技术国内领先，公司预计8 英寸衬底片有望在2023Q2 实现小批量生产。
考虑疫情影响部分四季度出货，小幅下调2022 年盈利预测2.9%至29 亿元，基本维持2023/24E盈利预测43/57 亿元。当前股价对应2023/24 年20/15x P/E。维持跑赢行业评级和89.24 元目标价，对应2023/24 年27/21倍市盈率，较当前股价有33%上行空间。
The company's recent situation
The company released a performance report: 2022 revenue of 10.638 billion yuan, +78.45% year on year; net profit of 2,917 billion yuan, +70.43% year on year; net profit of non-return mother was 2,733 billion yuan, +67.43% year on year, located at the center of performance forecasting, in line with market expectations. In 4Q22 alone, the company's revenue was 3.176 billion yuan, +61.21% year on year; Guimu's net profit was 909 million yuan, +51.09% year on year. The net interest rate returned to the mother for the whole year was 27.42%, year-on-year - 1.29ppt; the net interest rate for 4Q22 alone was 28.62%, +2.70ppt over the previous month.
We think the company is one of the few excellent pan-semiconductor equipment+material platform-based companies. Focusing on crystal growth and CVD technologies, the company has formed a sector layout for photovoltaic+semiconductor+silicon carbide equipment and photovoltaic consumables+silicon carbide substrates and sapphire materials. There will still be many fields of expansion in the future. The growth ceiling is high, and there are still large differences in market expectations.
The photovoltaic equipment category is expanding, and we look forward to the landing of orders for new products. The market is overly concerned about the cyclical nature of the monocrystalline furnace business, but in the short term, demand stabilizes and the price of silicon wafers stabilizes, and the company's main business orders may be better than expected. In the long run, monocrystalline furnace technology continues to be iterated. The company plans to launch fifth-generation furnace models this year, and in the future it will also target the development of silicon wafer monocrystalline furnaces needed for more efficient batteries. Furthermore, the company is expanding its categories in the field of photovoltaic equipment. We judge that new products of battery equipment and module equipment are expected to receive orders in '23.
The performance of photovoltaic consumables is expected to exceed market expectations. The company's photovoltaic quartz crucible production capacity has expanded rapidly. According to feedback from the industry, the unit price of the 36-inch crucible has reached 24,000 yuan/piece (tax included), and prices continue to rise in the face of tight supply and demand. The company is a crucible enterprise with raw material reserves and leading technology. We believe that profitability is expected to exceed market expectations; the King Kong Line's 30 million kilometer production capacity was put into operation in November last year, and we judge that it is expected to be shipped this year.
Silicon carbide still has plenty of room for growth in the long term. 1) Epitaxial equipment: According to the WeChat account, the company successfully released 6-inch two-chip silicon carbide epitaxial equipment in February. The company's epitaxial equipment was replaced domestically. The market share ranked first in China in '22, and shipments are expected to grow rapidly in '23. 2) Substrates: Previously, Tesla tried to launch an electric drive plan to “reduce the usage of SiC by 75%”. We believe that it mainly reduced silicon carbide usage through technology cost reduction; however, the trend of mid-range and high-end models of other brands actively embracing SiC has not changed. With the expansion of production of upstream raw materials limited, the growth rate of the industry is still determined by the supply side. We believe that the trend of SiC relying on technology cost reduction and performance advantages to increase penetration rate remains unchanged. The company's technology is leading in China, and the company expects 8-inch substrates to be produced in small batches in 2023Q2.
Profit forecasting and valuation
Considering the impact of the pandemic on some fourth quarter shipments, the 2022 profit forecast was lowered slightly by 2.9% to 2.9 billion yuan, and the 2023/24E profit forecast was basically maintained at 43/57 billion yuan. The current stock price corresponds to 2023/24 20/15x P/E. Maintaining an outperforming industry rating and a target price of 89.24 yuan corresponds to a price-earnings ratio of 27/21 times 2023/24, with room for 33% increase from the current stock price.
Downstream PV production expansion progress fell short of expectations, and new business expansion fell short of expectations.