业绩保持高增速， 符合市场预期。公司2022 年实现营业收入9.06 亿元（yoy+ 81.85%），归母净利润4.6 亿元（yoy+92.12%）；其中2022 年Q4单季度实现营业收入2.32 亿元（yoy+50.36%），归母净利润1.10 亿元（yoy+40.55%）。2022 年整体毛利率为63.29%，较2021 年下滑0.78pct，主要系培育钻销售下滑影响所致。期间销售费用率下滑4.37pct 至5.63%；管理费用率下滑1.23pct 至1.84%；净利率增长2.71pct 至50.78%。
培育钻和金刚石微粉业务显著增长。分业务板块看，2022 年培育钻和金刚石微粉营业收入分别为3.89 和3.16 亿元，同比增长97.12%和103.03%，占营业总收入的比例分别为42.89%和34.89%，是公司收入增长的主要驱动力。公司在培育钻领域不断夯实技术实力，目前研发人员80 名，占总员工人数的13.45%，授权专利51 项（包含8 项发明专利），可批量生产15 克拉以下的大颗粒高品级培育钻，实验室技术研究阶段的大颗粒培育钻已突破30 克拉。公司线锯用微粉国内市场份额行业领先，率先实现IC 芯片超精加工用特种异型八面体金刚石尖晶批量生产。
下游品牌零售端布局开启。2022 年公司成立子公司深圳科美钻科技有限公司切入培育钻零售，与潮宏基成立合资公司生而闪耀科技（深圳）有限公司，同时在美国设立LI LIANG DIAMOND USA INC 公司负责美国培育钻业务开拓。通过全产业链打通，利好公司品牌力进一步强化。
短期扰动不改长期产能释放。目前公司定增资金到位，2022 年末六面顶压机量已达1000 多台，随着疫情后生产秩序加速修复，停电等扰动因素不改长期产能提升趋势，产能释放助推业绩高增无忧。
盈利预测与投资建议：受2022 年下半年金刚石价格和欧美需求波动影响，对之前中报盈利预测进行修正，预计2023-2025 年归母净利润分别为 6.7/ 9.5/ 11.5 亿元，同比增幅分别为44.9%/ 42.5%/ 21.4%，对应 PE分别为 27x/ 19x/ 15x，维持“买入”评级。
风险提示：扩产不及预期，产品跌价，业绩预测和估值判断不达预期
The performance maintained a high growth rate, in line with market expectations. In 2022, the company achieved revenue of 906 million yuan (yoy+ 81.85%) and net profit of 466 million yuan (yoy +92.12%); of these, the Q4 2022 single quarter achieved operating income of 232 million yuan (yoy +50.36%), and net profit of 110 million yuan (yoy +40.55%). The overall gross margin in 2022 was 63.29%, down 0.78 pct from 2021, mainly due to the impact of declining sales of nurturing diamonds. The sales expense ratio fell 4.37pct to 5.63% during the period; the management expense ratio fell 1.23pct to 1.84%; and the net interest rate increased 2.71 pct to 50.78%.
The business of cultivating drills and diamond micronized diamonds grew significantly. By business sector, the revenue of Cultivating Diamond and Diamond Micro Powder in 2022 was 389 million yuan and 316 million yuan respectively, up 97.12% and 103.03% year-on-year, accounting for 42.89% and 34.89% of total operating revenue respectively, which was the main driving force for the company's revenue growth. The company continues to consolidate its technical strength in the field of cultivating drills. Currently, there are 80 R&D personnel, accounting for 13.45% of the total number of employees. 51 patents have been granted (including 8 invention patents), and can mass-produce high-grade large-grain cultivation drills of 15 carats or less. Large grain cultivation drills in the laboratory technology research stage have exceeded 30 carats. The company leads the domestic market share of micronized powders for wire saws, and is the first to achieve mass production of special special-shaped octahedral diamond spinels for IC chip superfinishing.
The retail side layout of downstream brands has begun. In 2022, the company established a subsidiary, Shenzhen Kemei Diamond Technology Co., Ltd., into cultivating drill retail, and established a joint venture with Chao Hongji to create Shining Technology (Shenzhen) Co., Ltd. At the same time, LI LIANG DIAMOND USA INC was established in the US to develop cultivating drill business in the US. Through the opening up of the entire industry chain, it is beneficial for the company's brand strength to be further strengthened.
Short-term disturbances do not alter the release of long-term production capacity. At present, the company's fixed capital is in place, and the number of six-sided top presses reached more than 1,000 at the end of 2022. With the accelerated restoration of production order after the epidemic, disruptive factors such as power outages did not change the long-term production capacity increase trend, the release of production capacity boosted performance without worry.
Profit forecast and investment advice: Affected by fluctuations in diamond prices and European and American demand in the second half of 2022, the previous interim profit forecast was revised. The net profit returned to the mother for 2023-2025 is estimated to be 67.5/1.15 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year increases of 44.9%/42.5%/21.4% respectively. The corresponding PE is 27x/ 19x/ 15x respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk warning: production expansion falls short of expectations, product prices fall, performance forecasts and valuation judgments fall short of expectations
