核心观点
公司22Q4 营收和业绩同比高增、环比放缓，主要受疫情管控和产品价格下降影响。22 年培育钻石和工业金刚石微粉延续高增，培育钻石成最大收入来源、营收占比42.9%/+3.32pct。公司定增落地、扩产提速助力成长，预计22 年底公司压机在1000 台左右，23 年预计公司将扩产1000 台压机。公司将逐步布局下游零售品牌端，有望实现上下游全产业链布局。
事件
公司发布2022 年年报：22 年营收9.06 亿元/+81.9%，归母净利润4.60 亿元/+92.1%，扣非归母净利润4.37 亿元/+90.5%；经营活动现金流净额3.29 亿元/+14.1%，EPS（基本）为3.57 元/股/-26.8%，ROE（加权）为38.7%/-3.68pct。公司拟每10 股派发现金股利10元人民币（含税）；每10 股转增8 股。
简评
全年业绩符合预期，盈利能力继续提升。受益于公司募投项目陆续投产，产量快速增长，22 年营业收入和净利润实现较快增长。
2022 年毛利率63.3%/-0.78pct，主要系培育钻和工业金刚石单晶价格有所下降；2022 年净利率50.8%/+2.71pct，销售、管理、财务、研发费用率分别为0.7%、1.8%、-1.7%、4.9%，同比-0.45、-1.23、-2.22、-0.47pct，收入规模扩大下费用率不断下降。
22Q4 营收和业绩同比高增、环比放缓，主要受疫情管控和产品价格下降影响。22Q4 营收2.32 亿元，同增50.4%、环比+2.3%；22Q4归母净利润为1.10 亿元，同增40.6%、环比-0.5%；22Q4 扣非归母净利润0.96 亿元，同比+32.8%。Q4 营收和业绩增速放缓主要系：1）疫情影响下装机速度环比放缓，预计22Q4 培育钻石价格环比持平（22Q3 环比下跌20%+）、营收环比略有增长；2）22Q4为工业金刚石淡季，预计价格环比下跌个位数。22Q4 毛利率、净利率分别为58.3%、47.6%，环比-0.39、-1.33pct。
培育钻石和金刚石微粉延续高增，培育钻石成最大收入来源。1）22 年培育钻石营收3.89 亿元/+97.1%, 营收占比42.9%/+3.32pct，毛利率为79.3%/-2.13pct，主要系22 年下半年公司培育钻产品销售价格有所下滑；2）金刚石单晶和微粉营收1.74、3.16 亿元，同增27.0%、103.0%，营收占比19.2%、34.9%，毛利率为52.7%、54.0%，分别-5.23、+3.98pct，工业金刚石单 晶受成本上行影响，行业高景气度下金刚石微粉销售价格上升。
公司定增落地、扩产提速助力成长，布局培育钻石下游零售品牌。1）扩产方面：截止22Q4 公司固定资产9.98 亿元、较22Q3 新增0.48 亿元，预计22 年底公司压机在1000 台左右，公司23 年预计扩产1000 台压机。
截至2022 年末，力量二期项目和商丘力量科技中心项目投资建设进度分别为16.51%/4.75%，主要系22Q4 疫情下、装机进程有所影响，预计23 年将加快保障产能释放。2）零售端：2022 年公司在深圳成立全资子公司深圳科美钻科技有限公司，22 年8 月与潮宏基等设合资公司，创建并运营培育钻石品牌，成立生而闪曜科技（深圳）有限公司，同时成立孙公司LILIANGDIAMONDUSAINC，主要负责美国培育钻石业务的拓展。预计公司将逐步布局下游零售品牌端，有望实现上下游全产业链布局。2023 年1 月，印度进口培育钻石毛坯1.32 亿美元/-13.7%，出口培育钻石裸钻1.03 亿美元/-15.5%；2023 年2 月，印度进口培育钻石毛坯0.63 亿美元/-59.1%，出口培育钻石裸钻1.35 亿美元/+7.3%，2023 年2 月印度培育钻石出口增速转正。
盈利预测：预计23-25 年营收13.6、19.0、23.3 亿元，同增47.8%、37.8%、23.7%；归母净利润6.80、9.38、11.60 亿元，同增47.8%、37.8%、23.7%，对应PE 为26、19、15 倍，维持“买入”评级。
风险提示：1）培育钻石需求不及预期：培育钻石需求80%在美国，美国22 年以来一直处于高通胀，若通胀持续、或将对于终端需求产生影响；2）竞争加剧毛利率下降：超硬材料产业在培育钻石兴起、光伏新能源、消费电子等行业需求快速增长的影响下，行业规模明显增长。目前在培育钻石兴起、光伏新能源、消费电子等行业需求快速增长等因素的影响下，公司产品价格全面上涨，行业处于高景气时期。随着行业竞争对手产能不断扩大，行业新进入者增多，培育钻石市场增长放缓等因素的影响，公司产品存在价格下降的风险。
Core viewpoints
The company's 22Q4 revenue and performance increased year-on-year and slowed down on a month-on-month basis, mainly affected by epidemic control and falling product prices. 22 years of cultivation diamond and industrial diamond powder continued to grow, nurturing diamond to become the largest source of income, revenue share of 42.9%/+3.32pct. The company is scheduled to increase landing, expand production and speed up growth. It is estimated that the company will have about 1000 presses at the end of 22, and it is expected that the company will expand production of 1000 presses in 23 years. The company will gradually lay out the downstream retail brand end, which is expected to achieve the layout of the upstream and downstream whole industry chain.
Event
The company released its annual report in 2022: 22-year revenue of 906 million yuan / + 81.9%, net profit of 460 million yuan / + 92.1%, net profit of 437 million yuan / + 90.5%, net cash flow of operating activities of 329 million yuan / + 14.1% (basic) of 3.57 yuan / share /-26.8% (weighted) for 38.7%/-3.68pct. The company plans to pay a cash dividend of 10 yuan (including tax) for every 10 shares and increase 8 shares for every 10 shares.
Brief comment
The full-year performance is in line with expectations, and profitability continues to improve. Benefiting from the continuous production of the company's fund-raising projects, the output has increased rapidly, and the 22-year operating income and net profit have achieved relatively rapid growth.
The gross profit margin of 63.3%/-0.78pct in 2022 is mainly due to the decline in the price of cultivated diamonds and industrial diamond single crystals; the net profit rate of 50.8%/+2.71pct in 2022 is 0.7%, 1.8%,-1.7% and 4.7%, respectively, compared with the same period last year. With the expansion of income scale, the expense rate continues to decline.
22Q4 revenue and performance increased higher than the same period last year, but slowed down month-on-month, mainly affected by epidemic control and falling product prices. 22Q4's revenue was 232 million yuan, an increase of 50.4% compared with the previous month, with a month-on-month increase of 2.3%. The net profit of 22Q4 was 110 million yuan, and the net profit of 22Q4 was 40.6% and-0.5%, respectively, deducting 96 million yuan of non-return net profit, which was + 32.8% compared with the same period last year. The slowdown in Q4 revenue and performance growth is mainly due to: 1) the installation speed slowed down month-on-month under the influence of the epidemic, and the price of diamond cultivated by 22Q4 is expected to be flat (down 20% from the previous month) and slightly increased from the previous month; 2) 22Q4 is the off-season of industrial diamond, and the price is expected to drop by single digits compared with the previous month. The gross profit margin and net profit margin of 22Q4 are 58.3% and 47.6% respectively, compared with-0.39 and-1.33pct.
The cultivation of diamonds and diamond micro-powder continues to grow, and diamonds become the largest source of income. 1) the 22-year cultivated diamond revenue is 389 million yuan / + 97.1%, accounting for 42.9%/+3.32pct, and the gross profit margin is 79.3%/-2.13pct, mainly due to the decline in the sales price of the company's nurturing diamond products in the second half of 22 years. 2) the revenue of diamond single crystal and fine powder was 1.74 and 316 million yuan, which increased by 27.0% and 103.0%, the revenue accounted for 19.2% and 30.9%, and the gross profit margin was 52.7% and 54.0%, respectively. Industrial diamond single crystal was affected by the upward cost, and the sales price of diamond powder increased under the high scene of the industry.
The company is determined to increase landing, expand production and speed up growth, layout to cultivate downstream diamond retail brands. 1) production expansion: as of the end of 22Q4's fixed assets of 998 million yuan, an increase of 48 million yuan compared with 22Q3, the company is expected to have about 1000 presses by the end of 22, and the company expects to expand production of 1000 presses in 23 years.
By the end of 2022, the investment and construction progress of the Power Phase II project and the Shangqiu Power Science and Technology Center project was 16.51% and 4.75% respectively, mainly due to the impact of the 22Q4 epidemic and the installation process. It is expected that the release of guaranteed capacity will be accelerated in 23 years. 2) Retail end: in 2022, the company established a wholly-owned subsidiary Shenzhen Komei Diamond Technology Co., Ltd. in Shenzhen, and in August 22, it set up a joint venture with Chao Acer, etc., to create and operate and cultivate diamond brands, to establish Sheng and Shengyao Technology (Shenzhen) Co., Ltd., as well as Sun Company LILIANGDIAMONDUSAINC, which is mainly responsible for the development of diamond business in the United States. It is expected that the company will gradually layout the downstream retail brand end, which is expected to achieve the layout of the upstream and downstream whole industry chain. In January 2023, India imported cultivated diamond blanks of US $132 million /-13.7%, exported cultivated diamond bare diamonds of US $103 million /-15.5%, India imported cultivated diamond blanks of US $63 million /-59.1%, and exported cultivated diamond rough diamonds of US $135 million / + 7.3%. India's cultivated diamond export growth rate became positive in February 2023.
Profit forecast: the estimated revenue for 23-25 is 13.6,19.0 and 2.33 billion yuan, up 47.8%, 37.8% and 23.7% respectively, and the net profit of returning mother is 6.80,9.38 and 1.16 billion yuan, up 47.8%, 37.8% and 23.7% respectively, corresponding to 26, 19 and 15 times of PE, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tips: 1) nurturing diamond demand is not as expected: 80% of nurturing diamond demand in the United States, the United States has been experiencing high inflation for 22 years, if inflation persists, it may have an impact on end demand; 2) Competition exacerbates the decline in gross profit margin: the superhard material industry has grown significantly under the influence of the rise of nurturing diamonds, photovoltaic new energy, consumer electronics and other industries. At present, under the influence of the rapid growth of demand in industries such as the cultivation of diamonds, photovoltaic new energy, consumer electronics and other factors, the company's product prices have risen in an all-round way, and the industry is in a period of high prosperity. With the continuous expansion of the production capacity of competitors in the industry, the increase in the number of new entrants to the industry, the slow growth of the nurturing diamond market and other factors, the company's products are at risk of falling prices.
