看过去，切入诺华供应链，完成CDMO 战略转型。与诺华的深度合作带动九洲药业2018-2021 年CDMO 业务快速发展，验证了公司全球一流的CDMO 能力，切入了全球规范市场供应链体系，平台的稀缺性、后续国内订单的率先承接性，奠定了我们对公司加速发展认知的基础。
看现在，股权激励绑定核心骨干，定增募资加快产能建设。2017 年至今，公司已经实施4 次股权激励，《2022 年限制性股票激励计划（草案）》激励对象共297人，其中公司中层管理人员及核心骨干获授占比87%。公司收购整合诺华苏州工厂、泰华医药化工杭州工厂、山德士中山制剂工厂，已定增25 亿元，主要用于CDMO 产能建设，即其中12 亿元用于台州CDMO 产能一期项目、5.6 亿元用于苏州原料药CDMO 项目建设。
看未来，做深大客户、做广小客户，强化“原料药+制剂”一体化CDMO 平台能力。随着收购的三大工厂陆续完成整合、“原料药+制剂”一体化平台建设不断完善、诺华重磅炸弹品种销售潜力不断释放、诺华其他管线品种认证转移、国内创新药项目的快速接力、江苏瑞科复产，公司CDMO 业务有望实现长期高速增长。
匹配公司“做深大客户”和“做广小客户”的市场开拓策略。从平台验证期向业绩加速兑现期过渡优质 CDMO 平台逐步从能力建设期走向订单、业绩加速兑现期。
盈利预测与估值。我们预测公司 2022-2024 年归母净利润分别为 9.30 亿元、12.41 亿元、16.61 亿元，同比增长46.7%、33.5%、33.9%，EPS 分别为 1.03、1.38、1.85 元。参考可比公司估值，考虑到九洲药业 “CDMO 大客户+原料药”双轮驱动模式，我们给与其2023 年35-40 倍PE，对应合理价值区间为48.30-55.20 元，给予“优于大市”评级。
In the past, cut into the Novartis supply chain to complete the CDMO strategic transformation. The deep cooperation with Novartis led to the rapid development of CDMO business of Jiuzhou Pharmaceutical Company from 2018 to 2021, verified the company's world-class CDMO capability, cut into the global standardized market supply chain system, the scarcity of the platform, and the first acceptance of follow-up domestic orders, which laid the foundation for our understanding of the accelerated development of the company.
Look at now, equity incentives bound to the core backbone, set to increase fund-raising to speed up capacity construction. Since 2017, the company has implemented four equity incentives, and the 2022 restricted Stock incentive Plan (draft) has encouraged a total of 297 people, of which 87% of the company's middle managers and core backbones have been granted. The company has acquired and integrated Novartis Suzhou Plant, Taihua Pharmaceutical and Chemical Hangzhou Plant and Sanders Zhongshan preparation Plant, which has been increased by 2.5 billion yuan, which is mainly used for CDMO capacity construction, that is, 1.2 billion yuan for Taizhou CDMO production capacity phase I project and 560 million yuan for Suzhou API CDMO project.
Look to the future, do deep big customers, do wide and small customers, strengthen the "API + preparation" integrated CDMO platform capabilities. With the completion of the integration of the three major factories, the continuous improvement of the construction of the integrated platform of "API + preparation", the continuous release of the sales potential of Novartis blockbuster varieties, the transfer of certification of Novartis other pipeline varieties, the rapid relay of domestic innovative drug projects, and the resumption of production in Jiangsu Ruike, the company's CDMO business is expected to achieve long-term rapid growth.
Match the company's market development strategy of "being a deep big customer" and "being a wide and small customer". The transition from the platform verification period to the performance accelerated cash period the high-quality CDMO platform has gradually moved from the capacity-building period to the order and performance accelerated cash period.
Profit forecast and valuation. We forecast that the company's net profit from 2022 to 2024 will be 930 million yuan, 1.241 billion yuan and 1.661 billion yuan respectively, an increase of 46.7%, 33.5% and 30.9% respectively. With reference to the valuation of comparable companies, considering the "CDMO key customer + Raw material Drug" two-wheel drive model of Jiuzhou Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd., we give it 35-40 times PE in 2023, corresponding to a reasonable value range of 48.30-55.20 yuan, with a rating of "better than the big market".
Risk hint. Innovative drug quality problems and sales below expectations, technology upgrading replacement risk, market competition risk, environmental protection and safety risk, exchange rate fluctuation risk.