share_log

晶盛机电(300316):设备+材料双轮驱动 平台型龙头星辰大海

Jingsheng Electromechanical (300316): Equipment+Material Dual Wheel Drive Platform Type Leading Star Ocean

廣發證券 ·  Mar 6, 2023 00:00  · Researches

Core ideas:

Photovoltaic crystal equipment faucet, consumables the second curve through the cycle. The high production expansion of the wafer industry continues in 2023, and the new market space for wafer equipment is expected to be 29.3 billion yuan in 2023. As the leader of Changjing equipment, the company leads the industry in product strength and competitiveness, and has full orders on hand. In addition, the company makes efforts to layout crucibles, diamond line and other consumables business, with the new production capacity put into operation one after another, we expect to gradually form a new profit growth point in 23-25 years, helping the company through the industry cycle.

The localization of 12-inch silicon wafer equipment is accelerated, and the company's entire line coverage + integrated layout leads the development of the industry.

Domestic manufacturers are actively expanding the production of large-size silicon wafers. Up to now, domestic manufacturers have planned an additional production capacity of 109amp 1.05 million wafers per month in 23-25 years, and the market space for domestic equipment is more than 10 billion yuan. The company's semiconductor wafer equipment layout is comprehensive, while expanding the high value-added parts business. At present, the semiconductor business of the company is full of orders. it is estimated that the total accessible space in the downstream equipment demand in 23-25 years will reach 10.7 billion yuan, which has broad prospects for development in the future.

SiC downstream application penetration + localization rate double-click, the company's forward-looking layout opens room for long-term growth.

As a new generation of semiconductor material, silicon carbide has excellent performance and is currently in a period of rapid development from 0 to 1. It is estimated that the penetration rate of SiC in new energy vehicles is expected to increase to 25% in 27 years, and the outbreak of downstream application demand will drive the global substrate market to reach 9.2 billion yuan in 25 years, and epitaxial equipment to 8.2 billion yuan. At present, the production capacity of 8-inch substrate and epitaxial equipment is scarce, and the company's layout at the substrate and equipment level is progressing smoothly. With the landing of technology and capacity layout, a new round of growth can be expected in the future.

Profit forecast and investment advice. It is estimated that the company's net profit from 2022 to 2024 will reach 5.558 billion yuan. Considering that the company's main business is full of orders on hand, the consumables business continues to expand, and the pan-semiconductor field has a complete layout and broad long-term growth space. Combined with the comparable company valuation, we believe that the company's 23-year reasonable Pmax E multiple is 28x, corresponding to a reasonable value of 85.77 yuan per share, maintaining a "buy" rating.

Risk hint. The expansion of photovoltaic and semiconductor silicon wafers is not as expected; the localization process of semiconductors is not as expected; and the permeability of silicon carbide is not as expected.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


The above content is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice related to Futu. Although we strive to ensure the truthfulness, accuracy, and originality of all such content, we cannot guarantee it.
    Write a comment