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理想汽车-W(2015.HK):L平台新车全面交付 Q4盈利呈现趋势性好转

Ideal Automobile-W (2015.HK): Full delivery of new cars on the L platform, Q4 profits showed a trend improvement

國泰君安 ·  Mar 7, 2023 15:33  · Researches

This report is read as follows:

The company released the 2022 annual report, the results are in line with expectations, the company's new generation of extended range platform L series models will be fully delivered from 2023, while the launch of the Air version configuration is expected to drive monthly sales to a new high.

Summary:

Maintain the "overweight" rating. The company's performance and sales performance in 2022 are in line with expectations, and sales and revenue are expected to continue to grow rapidly with the gradual release of new models on new generation hybrid platforms such as L9/L8/L7 in 2023. Taking into account the progress of the delivery of the company's models on the market and the competitiveness of existing products, we adjust the company's revenue per share from 2023 to 2025 to 42.80,68.98 and 87.25 yuan respectively, combined with the company's strong product positioning ability and the strong competitiveness of market segments.

The delivery volume for the whole year continued to increase, and the average price per bike increased. The company delivered 133000 vehicles in 2022, an increase of 47.2% over the same period last year, of which Q4 delivered 46000 vehicles, an increase of 31.5% over the same period last year and 75% month-on-month growth. The delivery of 2022H2's high unit price L9 model has led to higher revenue growth than sales. In 2022, the company achieved revenue of 45.29 billion yuan, an increase of 67.7% over the same period last year, of which Q4 realized revenue of 17.65 billion yuan, an increase of 66.2% over the same period last year and 89% month-on-month growth. The reason is that the positioning and selling price of L9 is higher than that of ONE, and the average selling price has increased.

Gross profit margin improved significantly compared with the same period last year and stabilized year-on-year, Q4 performance improvement trend has been shown. For the whole year of 2022, the company's net loss was 2.03 billion yuan, while the net loss in the same period was 320 million yuan. The loss was significantly expanded, of which Q4 realized a net profit of 265 million yuan, which significantly reduced the loss compared with the previous month. The increase in losses for the whole year is due to the increase in R & D and publicity costs brought about by new car research and development and listing, as well as the increase in channel construction costs caused by the opening of stores in the business district, as well as the repeated impact of the 2022H1 epidemic on terminal sales. In 2022, the company's gross profit margin was 19.1%, lower 1.5pct than the same period last year, of which Q4 gross profit margin was 20.2%, lower 2.2pct than the same period last year, and significantly increased 7.5pct compared with the previous year.

2023Q1 delivery outlook is optimistic, monthly sales are expected to hit a new high. The company expects that Q1 will deliver 52 to 55 million vehicles in 2023, an increase of 64% to 73% over the same period last year, maintaining a strong growth trend. At the same time, the family's five new flagship L7 will be delivered in early March, with a price of 31.98 to 3798 yuan. The top version is equipped with double NVIDIA Corp OrinX and double Qualcomm Inc 8155. Its three L9/L8/L7 models all have strong production power, which is expected to push the brand's monthly sales to more than 30,000 vehicles.

Risk hint: intensified competition in market segments triggered a price war, and demand for mid-and high-end products was lower than expected.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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