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理想汽车(02015.HK):产品矩阵建设加速 收入兑现推动盈利改善

Ideal Auto (02015.HK): Product Matrix Construction Accelerates Revenue Realization and Drives Profit Improvement

浙商證券 ·  Feb 28, 2023 00:00  · Researches

Guide to the report:

The company's 22Q4 achieved revenue of 17.7 billion yuan, up 66.2% from a year earlier and 88.9% from a month earlier, higher than Bloomberg's consensus forecast of 0.6%. Non-GAAP 's net profit was 970 million yuan, compared with 690 million yuan in the same period last year, compared with a net loss of 1.24 billion yuan in the previous quarter. Bloomberg unanimously expected a net loss of 510 million yuan. Net profit margin 5.5%, net interest rate 6.5% in the same period last year, net loss rate 13.3% in the previous quarter, Bloomberg consensus expected loss rate of 2.9%.

We estimate that the company's annual operating income in 23-24-25 will be 1048x1535x2205 billion yuan respectively, a year-on-year growth rate of 131.4%, 46.5%, 43.6%, respectively, and a year-on-year growth rate of 12671.1%, 179.5%, 85.8%, corresponding to the current stock price, PS 1.10.8 times. We give the company a 23-year 2.0x PS, corresponding to a share price of HK $114.3, which is 23.9% higher than the current share price and maintains an "overweight" rating.

Main points of investment

L9 and L8 delivered more than 10,000 in August, and bicycle revenue increased year-on-year.

The total delivery volume of the company's Q4 was 46319, an increase of 31.5% over the same period last year and 74.6% month-on-month. L9 began delivery at the end of August and L9 in November. Both L9 and L8 achieved good results in terms of sales and word-of-mouth, and there was no serious order run between products, and the delivery volume of both models exceeded 10000 in the first month, which helps to consolidate the company's competitive advantage in the new energy SUV market. According to the FIFA, by sales (vehicles), 22Q4 new energy SUV sales increased by 85.9% year-on-year and 19.5% month-on-month.

The company's bicycle income was 373000 yuan, up 26.6% from the same period last year and 9.3% from the previous month. The ideal L9 and L8, which are mainly due to higher average sales prices, have become the main delivery force in 22Q4.

The performance of new products is in line with expectations, and the revenue of automobile sales is growing steadily.

The company's Q4 achieved 17.7 billion yuan in revenue, up 66.2% from a year earlier and 88.9% from a month earlier, higher than Bloomberg's consensus forecast of 0.6%. Of this total, revenue from car sales totaled 17.3 billion yuan, up 66.4 percent from the same period last year and 90.9 percent from the previous month.

Thanks to the accelerated launch of new products and the performance in line with expectations, Q4 car sales revenue growth is much faster than Q3.

Income from services and other services totaled 380 million yuan, up 56.2 percent from the same period last year and 28.7 percent from the previous month. The rapid year-on-year growth is mainly due to the increase in revenue from sales of services, parts and accessories with the increase in cumulative car deliveries.

Portfolio change superimposed product climbing, gross profit margin still has a certain flexibility company Q4 sales cost of 14.1 billion yuan, up 70.9% year-on-year, up 72.6% month-on-month. The year-on-year increase is mainly due to the increase in the average cost of sales caused by the start of delivery of L9 and L8. The company's Q4 gross profit margin was 20. 2%, down 2.2pct from a year earlier and up 7.6pct from a month earlier, below Bloomberg's consensus estimate of 1. 1pct. The gross profit margin of the car sales business was 20.0%, down 2.3pct from the same period last year and up 8. 0pct from the previous month. The year-on-year decline in gross profit margin stems from: 1) product portfolio adjustment; 2) ideal one price reduction to clear inventory superimposed inventory impairment financial impact; 3) L8 is still in capacity climbing and has not yet reached the mature gross margin level. The reason for the month-on-month increase is that Q3 takes into account the loss of ideal ONE purchase commitments. With the gradual elimination of the impact of ideal one, new product production capacity climbing, gross profit margin still has some room to improve.

Cost control went hand in hand with business expansion, with an orderly decline in sales expenses. The company's Q4 operating expenses totaled 3.7 billion yuan, accounting for 21.0% of revenue, down 1.2pct from the same period last year and 14.5pct from the previous month, which was lower than Bloomberg's consensus 1.7pct. Where:

1) R & D expenditure: 2.1 billion yuan, accounting for 11.7% of revenue, year-on-year growth of 0.1pct, month-on-month decline of 7.6pct, higher than Bloomberg consensus expected 1. 0pct. Slightly higher than expected is due to higher-than-expected investment in expanding the portfolio.

2) sales, general and administrative expenses: 1.6 billion yuan, accounting for 9.2% of revenue, down 1.4pct from the same period last year, 6.9pct down from the same period last year, lower than Bloomberg consensus expected 2.5pct, lower than expected due to: 1) higher-than-expected leverage of revenue; 2) collaborative production of multiple product lines and scale effect; and 3) better-than-expected cost control.

Investment suggestion

Taking into account the accelerated pace of the company, we are more optimistic about 23-25 revenue, under the scale effect, cost and expense control is better than the previous forecast, driving earnings improvement. We estimate that the annual operating income of the company in 23-24-25 is 1048,35,2205 billion yuan respectively, a year-on-year growth rate of 131.4%, 46.5%, 43.6%, and 12671.1%, 179.5%, 85.8%, respectively, corresponding to the current share price PS of 1.6x1.1%, 1.10.8 times.

We believe that the company deeply ploughs the field of new energy SUV, has strong competitiveness and accumulates certain user minds, is currently in a period of rapid growth, and is expected to continue to realize revenue expectations through continuous improvement of the product matrix, and make use of economies of scale to dilute costs to improve profitability. Considering the upward impact of the industry valuation center, we give the company 2.0 times PS for 23 years. The corresponding share price is HK $114.3 (the Hong Kong dollar closes 0.88 on February 28 against the renminbi), which is 23.9% higher than the current share price, maintaining the "overweight" rating.

Risk hint

Sales of new products fall short of expectations; research and development of new platforms and new models are less than expected; pure electricity switching is more difficult than expected; delayed delivery of charging network; potential legal risks of intelligent driving.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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