公司22Q4 实现营收177 亿元，同比上升66.2%，环比上升88.9%，高于彭博一致预期0.6%。Non-GAAP 净利润为9.7 亿元，去年同期录得净利润6.9 亿元，上一季度净亏损为12.4 亿元，彭博一致预期为净亏损5.1 亿元。净利润率5.5%，去年同期净利率6.5%，上一季度净亏损率13.3%，彭博一致预期亏损率2.9%。
我们预计，公司23/24/25 年营业收入分别为1048/1535/2205 亿元，同比增速为131.4%/46.5%/43.6%，Non-GAAP 净利润分别为27/74/138 亿元， 同比增速为12671.1%/179.5%/85.8%，对应当前股价PS 为1.6/1.1/0.8 倍。我们给予公司23 年2.0倍PS，对应股价114.3 港元，较当前股价上涨空间23.9%，维持 “增持” 评级。
L9 和L8 月均交付过万，单车收入同比提升
公司Q4 总交付量为46319 辆，同比增长31.5%，环比增长74.6%。L9 于8 月底开始交付，L9 于11 月开始交付。L9 和L8 销量和口碑方面均取得不错成绩，且未出现严重的产品间订单挤兑，两个车型的首月交付量均超过了10,000 辆，有利于夯实公司在新能源SUV 市场的竞争优势地位。根据乘联会披露，按销量（辆），22Q4 新能源SUV 销量同比增加85.9%，环比增加19.5%。
公司单车收入37.3 万元，同比上升26.6%，环比上升9.3%。主要源于销售均价更高的理想L9 和L8 于22Q4 成为交付主力。
公司Q4 实现收入177 亿元，同比上升66.2%，环比上升88.9%，高于彭博一致预期0.6%。其中，汽车销售收入173 亿元，同比上升66.4%，环比上升90.9%。
组合变动叠加产品爬坡，毛利率仍具有一定弹性公司Q4 销售成本为141 亿元，同比上升70.9%，环比上升72.6%。同比增加主要源于L9 和L8 开始交付导致的平均销售成本上升。公司Q4 毛利率20.2%，同比下降2.2pct，环比上升7.6pct，低于彭博一致预期1. 1pct。汽车销售业务毛利率20.0%，同比下降2.3pct，环比上升8. 0pct。毛利率同比下降源于：1）产品组合调整；2）理想one 降价清库存叠加库存减值的财务影响；3）L8 仍处于产能爬坡中，还未达到成熟状态下毛利率水平。环比上升的原因是Q3 计提了理想ONE 购买承诺损失。随着理想one 的影响逐渐消弭，新品产能爬坡，毛利率仍有一定提升空间。
成本控制与业务扩张并行，销售费用率有序下降公司Q4 经营开支总计37 亿元，占收入比21.0%，同比下降1.2pct，环比下降14.5pct，低于彭博一致预期1.7pct。其中：
1）研发费用：21 亿元，占收入比11.7%，同比增长0.1pct，环比下降7.6pct，高于彭博一致预期1. 0pct。略高于预期源于扩展产品组合的投入超预期。
考虑到公司上新节奏加快，我们对于23-25 年营收更加乐观，在规模效应下，成本和费用控制优于前期预测水平，推动盈利改善。我们预计，公司23/24/25 年营 业收入分别为1048/1535/2205 亿元，同比增速为131.4%/46.5%/43.6%，Non-GAAP 净利润分别为27/74/138 亿元，同比增速为12671.1%/179.5%/85.8%，对应当前股价PS 为1.6/1.1/0.8 倍。
我们认为，公司深耕新能源SUV 领域，具有较强竞争力并积累一定用户心智，当前正处于高速成长期，有望通过不断完善的产品矩阵持续兑现收入预期，利用规模效应摊薄成本改善盈利，考虑到行业估值中枢上移影响，我们给予公司23年2.0 倍PS，对应股价114.3 港元 (港币对人民币汇率使用2 月28 日收盘价0.88)，较当前股价上涨空间23.9%，维持“增持”评级。
Guide to the report:
The company's 22Q4 achieved revenue of 17.7 billion yuan, up 66.2% from a year earlier and 88.9% from a month earlier, higher than Bloomberg's consensus forecast of 0.6%. Non-GAAP 's net profit was 970 million yuan, compared with 690 million yuan in the same period last year, compared with a net loss of 1.24 billion yuan in the previous quarter. Bloomberg unanimously expected a net loss of 510 million yuan. Net profit margin 5.5%, net interest rate 6.5% in the same period last year, net loss rate 13.3% in the previous quarter, Bloomberg consensus expected loss rate of 2.9%.
We estimate that the company's annual operating income in 23-24-25 will be 1048x1535x2205 billion yuan respectively, a year-on-year growth rate of 131.4%, 46.5%, 43.6%, respectively, and a year-on-year growth rate of 12671.1%, 179.5%, 85.8%, corresponding to the current stock price, PS 1.10.8 times. We give the company a 23-year 2.0x PS, corresponding to a share price of HK $114.3, which is 23.9% higher than the current share price and maintains an "overweight" rating.
Main points of investment
L9 and L8 delivered more than 10,000 in August, and bicycle revenue increased year-on-year.
The total delivery volume of the company's Q4 was 46319, an increase of 31.5% over the same period last year and 74.6% month-on-month. L9 began delivery at the end of August and L9 in November. Both L9 and L8 achieved good results in terms of sales and word-of-mouth, and there was no serious order run between products, and the delivery volume of both models exceeded 10000 in the first month, which helps to consolidate the company's competitive advantage in the new energy SUV market. According to the FIFA, by sales (vehicles), 22Q4 new energy SUV sales increased by 85.9% year-on-year and 19.5% month-on-month.
The company's bicycle income was 373000 yuan, up 26.6% from the same period last year and 9.3% from the previous month. The ideal L9 and L8, which are mainly due to higher average sales prices, have become the main delivery force in 22Q4.
The performance of new products is in line with expectations, and the revenue of automobile sales is growing steadily.
The company's Q4 achieved 17.7 billion yuan in revenue, up 66.2% from a year earlier and 88.9% from a month earlier, higher than Bloomberg's consensus forecast of 0.6%. Of this total, revenue from car sales totaled 17.3 billion yuan, up 66.4 percent from the same period last year and 90.9 percent from the previous month.
Thanks to the accelerated launch of new products and the performance in line with expectations, Q4 car sales revenue growth is much faster than Q3.
Income from services and other services totaled 380 million yuan, up 56.2 percent from the same period last year and 28.7 percent from the previous month. The rapid year-on-year growth is mainly due to the increase in revenue from sales of services, parts and accessories with the increase in cumulative car deliveries.
Portfolio change superimposed product climbing, gross profit margin still has a certain flexibility company Q4 sales cost of 14.1 billion yuan, up 70.9% year-on-year, up 72.6% month-on-month. The year-on-year increase is mainly due to the increase in the average cost of sales caused by the start of delivery of L9 and L8. The company's Q4 gross profit margin was 20. 2%, down 2.2pct from a year earlier and up 7.6pct from a month earlier, below Bloomberg's consensus estimate of 1. 1pct. The gross profit margin of the car sales business was 20.0%, down 2.3pct from the same period last year and up 8. 0pct from the previous month. The year-on-year decline in gross profit margin stems from: 1) product portfolio adjustment; 2) ideal one price reduction to clear inventory superimposed inventory impairment financial impact; 3) L8 is still in capacity climbing and has not yet reached the mature gross margin level. The reason for the month-on-month increase is that Q3 takes into account the loss of ideal ONE purchase commitments. With the gradual elimination of the impact of ideal one, new product production capacity climbing, gross profit margin still has some room to improve.
Cost control went hand in hand with business expansion, with an orderly decline in sales expenses. The company's Q4 operating expenses totaled 3.7 billion yuan, accounting for 21.0% of revenue, down 1.2pct from the same period last year and 14.5pct from the previous month, which was lower than Bloomberg's consensus 1.7pct. Where:
1) R & D expenditure: 2.1 billion yuan, accounting for 11.7% of revenue, year-on-year growth of 0.1pct, month-on-month decline of 7.6pct, higher than Bloomberg consensus expected 1. 0pct. Slightly higher than expected is due to higher-than-expected investment in expanding the portfolio.
2) sales, general and administrative expenses: 1.6 billion yuan, accounting for 9.2% of revenue, down 1.4pct from the same period last year, 6.9pct down from the same period last year, lower than Bloomberg consensus expected 2.5pct, lower than expected due to: 1) higher-than-expected leverage of revenue; 2) collaborative production of multiple product lines and scale effect; and 3) better-than-expected cost control.
Taking into account the accelerated pace of the company, we are more optimistic about 23-25 revenue, under the scale effect, cost and expense control is better than the previous forecast, driving earnings improvement. We estimate that the annual operating income of the company in 23-24-25 is 1048,35,2205 billion yuan respectively, a year-on-year growth rate of 131.4%, 46.5%, 43.6%, and 12671.1%, 179.5%, 85.8%, respectively, corresponding to the current share price PS of 1.6x1.1%, 1.10.8 times.
We believe that the company deeply ploughs the field of new energy SUV, has strong competitiveness and accumulates certain user minds, is currently in a period of rapid growth, and is expected to continue to realize revenue expectations through continuous improvement of the product matrix, and make use of economies of scale to dilute costs to improve profitability. Considering the upward impact of the industry valuation center, we give the company 2.0 times PS for 23 years. The corresponding share price is HK $114.3 (the Hong Kong dollar closes 0.88 on February 28 against the renminbi), which is 23.9% higher than the current share price, maintaining the "overweight" rating.
Sales of new products fall short of expectations; research and development of new platforms and new models are less than expected; pure electricity switching is more difficult than expected; delayed delivery of charging network; potential legal risks of intelligent driving.