4Q22 净利润转正；2023 交付量指引超预期
理想汽车4Q22 收入176.5 亿元，符合彭博一致预期。汽车毛利率20.0%，较彭博一致预期低1.3pp，主因新旧车型换代。主要利好点：1）1Q23 汽销量指引5.2-5.5 万辆，较彭博一致预期高12-18%；3 万台月交付量目标、28-30万台年交付量目标均较市场预期乐观。2）4Q22 净利润2.7 亿元，超预期转正，主因控费能力突出，OPEX 费用较彭博一致预期低16.1%。我们维持理想汽车2023/2024 年总收入预测至人民币947/1,591 亿元，我们预测2025年公司总收入为1,824 亿元。考虑到今年中国电动车市场的激烈竞争，我们维持140 港元目标价，基于2.8x 2023E PS，较可比公司平均的2.7x 高5%（前值：2.8x 2023E PS，较可比公司平均高2%）。维持 "买入"评级。
2022 回顾：汽车毛利率虽不及预期；费用压降净利润超预期转正理想汽车4Q22 收入176.5 亿元，符合彭博一致预期。受L9/8 新车产能爬坡、以及ONE 库存等因素的影响，公司汽车业务毛利率20.0%，较彭博一致预期低1.3pp。但4Q22 公司净利润2.7 亿元，显著超彭博一致预期（-1.2亿元）。主因单季度SG&A/R&D 费用压降到16.3/20.7 亿元，整体OPEX费用比彭博一致预期低16.1%。
2023 展望：汽车销量有望超预期；毛利率承压公司预计1Q23 汽车交付量为5.2-5.5 万辆，同比增长64.0-73.4%，较彭博一致预期高12-18%；收入174.5-184.5 亿元，同比增长82.5-93.0%，较彭博一致预期高6-12%。3 月L7 开始交付，4 月Air 版本开始交付。公司重申5 月是L7+8+9 全部版本交付的第一个完整月，月交付量目标为3 万辆（其中Air 版本5,000 辆），高于市场预期。考虑到前期订单积累，我们判断Q2单月销量或可破3 万台。毛利率方面，今年面临1）电动车价格战；2）与电池等零部件厂商的价格博弈；以及3）L7 产能爬坡等压力。我们看好公司今年基本维持21%的汽车毛利率。
我们维持理想汽车2023/2024 年总收入预测为人民币947/1,591 亿元，我们预测2025 年公司总收入为1,824 亿元。考虑到今年中国电动车市场的激烈竞争，考虑到今年市场竞争加剧，我们维持140 港元目标价，基于2.8x2023E PS，较可比公司平均的2.7x 高5%（前值：22.8x 2023E PS，较可比公司平均高2%）。维持 "买入"评级。
4Q22 net profit becomes positive; 2023 delivery guidelines exceed expectations
Li Auto Inc. 's 4Q22 income is 17.65 billion yuan, in line with Bloomberg's consensus expectations. The gross profit margin of cars is 20.0%, lower than Bloomberg's consensus expectations of 1.3pp, mainly due to the replacement of old and new models. The main advantages are: 1) the 1Q23 auto sales guidelines are 5.2-55000 vehicles, 12-18% higher than Bloomberg's consensus forecast; the monthly delivery target of 30,000 units and the annual delivery target of 28-300000 units are all more optimistic than market expectations. 2) the net profit of 4Q22 is 270 million yuan, which is higher than expected. The main reason is that the ability to control fees is outstanding, and OPEX fees are 16.1% lower than Bloomberg's consensus expectations. We maintain Li Auto Inc. 's total revenue forecast of RMB 947,0159.1 billion in 2024, and we forecast total revenue of 182.4 billion yuan in 2025. Taking into account the fierce competition in the Chinese electric car market this year, we maintain the target price of HK $140, based on 2.8x 2023e PS, which is 5 per cent higher than the average 2.7x of comparable companies (previous value: 2.8x 2023e PS, 2 per cent higher than the average of comparable companies). Maintain a "buy" rating.
2022 Review: although the gross profit margin of the car was lower than expected; the net profit of the fee pressure drop exceeded expectations, Li Auto Inc. 's 4Q22 income was 17.65 billion yuan, in line with Bloomberg consensus expectations. Affected by factors such as the climbing of new car capacity in L9Acer 8 and ONE inventory, the company's auto business gross profit margin was 20.0%, lower than Bloomberg's consensus expectations of 1.3pp. But 4Q22's net profit was 270 million yuan, significantly exceeding Bloomberg's consensus estimate of-120 million yuan. The main reason is that the SG&A/R&D fee fell to 1.63 trillion yuan in a single quarter, and the overall OPEX fee was 16.1% lower than Bloomberg's consensus estimate.
Outlook for 2023: car sales are expected to exceed expectations; gross margin pressure company expects 1Q23 vehicle delivery to be 5.2-55000 vehicles, up 64.0-73.4% year-on-year, 12-18% higher than Bloomberg consensus forecast; revenue 174.5-18.45 billion yuan, up 82.5-93.0% year-on-year, 6-12% higher than Bloomberg consensus. Delivery of the L7 begins in March and the Air version begins in April. The company reiterated that May is the first full month for the delivery of all versions of the L7, 2008 and 9, with a monthly delivery target of 30,000 vehicles (including 5000 for the Air version), which is higher than market expectations. Considering the accumulation of previous orders, we judge that the monthly sales of Q2 may exceed 30,000 units. In terms of gross profit margin, this year is faced with 1) electric car price war; 2) price game with battery and other parts manufacturers; and 3) L7 production capacity climbing and other pressures. We are optimistic that the company will basically maintain a car gross profit margin of 21% this year.
Maintain the target price of HK $140 and the "buy" rating
We maintain the total revenue forecast of RMB 947,0159.1 billion for Li Auto Inc. 2023Compact in 2024, and we forecast the total revenue of the company to be RMB 182.4 billion in 2025. Considering the fierce competition in China's electric car market this year and the intensification of market competition this year, we maintain the target price of HK $140. based on 2.8x2023E PS, it is 5% higher than the average 2.7x of comparable companies (previous value: 22.8x 2023e PS, 2% higher than the average of comparable companies). Maintain a "buy" rating.
Risk hint: the growth of demand for new energy vehicles is not as expected, and the permeability of intelligent configuration is not as expected.